Tuesday, June 5, 2018

World Cup: Group B

In group B play two of the favourites, Spain and Portugal, and are thus favourites to advance from this group. The first match between Morocco and Iran are crucial where the loser have small chances to recover. Teams from this group play teams from the weak group A in the next round and have therefore good chances to reach the quarter-final.

Group B

PldGFGAGDPtsLast 16Group Winner
Spain0000084%54%
Portugal0000073%34%
Morocco0000016%4%
Iran0000028%8%
uncertainty: 77%

Table below shows how countries chances to reach last 16 depend on results in first matches.

Spa - PorIran - Morocco
3-03-12-03-22-11-00-01-12-23-30-11-22-30-21-30-3
3-0Spa97%97%97%98%97%97%98%98%98%98%97%98%98%97%97%97%
Por48%48%48%49%52%53%59%60%60%59%58%56%54%52%54%53%
Ira52%50%50%49%44%44%25%26%25%24%11%11%10%9%8%6%
Mor3%4%4%5%6%6%17%16%17%19%34%35%38%42%40%44%
3-1Spa96%96%96%97%96%97%97%98%97%98%97%97%97%97%96%95%
Por52%54%56%57%57%57%62%61%62%59%62%60%59%58%58%58%
Ira50%46%44%41%41%40%24%25%24%26%9%10%11%7%7%5%
Mor3%4%3%5%6%6%16%17%16%17%33%32%34%38%38%42%
2-0Spa95%96%97%97%97%96%97%97%97%98%97%97%96%97%96%96%
Por50%52%54%55%57%58%61%60%61%60%61%60%60%60%57%58%
Ira53%49%47%42%41%41%25%25%25%26%10%10%11%6%8%4%
Mor2%3%3%6%6%5%16%17%17%16%32%34%33%38%39%42%
3-2Spa95%94%95%94%95%95%97%97%96%96%96%96%95%96%95%95%
Por56%60%59%61%60%62%63%63%62%61%67%66%63%63%65%63%
Ira46%43%43%40%39%38%24%25%24%24%8%8%10%7%7%4%
Mor2%3%3%5%5%4%16%15%17%19%29%30%32%34%34%37%
2-1Spa93%94%94%95%95%95%96%97%96%96%95%95%96%95%94%94%
Por57%58%58%60%61%61%63%63%63%63%65%64%62%64%63%58%
Ira47%45%44%40%39%39%24%25%24%25%9%9%10%6%7%6%
Mor3%3%3%5%5%4%16%16%16%16%32%31%33%35%36%42%
1-0Spa93%94%94%94%94%95%96%96%96%96%95%95%95%94%95%94%
Por53%58%58%59%59%60%63%61%61%62%65%63%63%64%61%57%
Ira51%45%44%41%41%40%24%26%26%25%9%10%9%6%6%6%
Mor3%3%3%5%6%5%16%16%17%16%31%32%34%36%38%43%
0-0Spa80%82%80%80%81%82%86%86%85%86%83%83%82%82%82%83%
Por73%72%73%71%73%72%80%80%78%79%76%75%76%75%76%77%
Ira45%43%44%44%42%42%20%20%23%23%7%8%8%6%6%5%
Mor2%3%3%5%4%4%13%14%14%13%34%34%35%37%36%35%
1-1Spa80%80%81%81%81%82%88%87%85%84%83%83%84%83%82%81%
Por73%73%72%72%73%73%81%80%80%79%76%76%76%75%76%77%
Ira44%44%44%43%42%41%18%19%21%23%7%7%7%5%6%5%
Mor2%3%3%5%4%4%13%13%14%14%34%34%32%36%37%37%
2-2Spa81%81%81%82%81%83%88%88%86%86%84%84%82%83%82%82%
Por72%74%74%75%73%73%82%82%81%79%77%77%76%76%77%77%
Ira45%43%42%39%42%41%18%18%21%22%6%6%6%5%5%3%
Mor2%3%3%4%4%3%12%12%13%13%33%33%35%36%36%38%
3-3Spa82%82%82%80%85%81%87%88%87%91%83%84%85%86%84%80%
Por71%72%75%75%74%75%84%83%81%82%76%76%78%79%77%76%
Ira45%43%39%42%39%40%17%16%19%19%6%6%4%4%7%5%
Mor2%2%4%3%3%4%12%13%13%8%35%34%32%31%33%39%
0-1Spa62%65%66%66%66%67%69%70%69%71%72%72%70%68%71%67%
Por89%89%90%90%91%92%94%93%94%93%92%91%93%91%90%89%
Ira46%43%42%38%38%36%22%22%23%22%8%8%9%7%7%6%
Mor3%3%3%5%5%5%15%15%15%14%28%29%28%34%32%39%
1-2Spa64%66%65%68%68%69%71%70%70%70%72%71%69%69%69%65%
Por89%90%90%91%91%92%94%94%94%93%93%92%92%91%91%89%
Ira45%41%41%36%36%35%21%22%22%21%8%9%10%5%6%6%
Mor3%4%3%5%5%4%14%13%15%15%26%28%30%34%33%40%
2-3Spa64%65%66%69%68%68%70%69%71%70%72%72%68%68%71%70%
Por88%90%91%91%92%93%95%94%94%94%93%92%93%92%91%89%
Ira46%42%40%36%35%35%22%22%21%21%8%8%8%6%6%4%
Mor2%2%3%4%5%4%13%15%14%15%27%28%31%34%32%36%
0-2Spa60%61%62%62%64%64%67%68%68%71%67%66%65%67%65%60%
Por91%92%93%93%94%94%95%95%96%95%94%93%94%94%93%93%
Ira46%44%42%38%37%38%22%23%22%21%9%9%9%7%7%5%
Mor2%3%3%6%5%5%15%14%14%14%30%32%32%32%35%42%
1-3Spa59%62%62%64%66%65%67%68%70%67%69%67%67%65%67%65%
Por92%93%94%92%94%93%95%96%96%95%94%94%94%94%92%93%
Ira46%42%40%38%35%37%23%22%20%22%8%9%10%6%6%7%
Mor2%3%3%6%5%5%15%14%14%16%29%31%28%34%35%35%
0-3Spa55%56%59%59%59%62%71%70%66%72%64%65%63%63%59%58%
Por94%94%95%96%95%95%96%96%96%96%95%95%94%95%97%96%
Ira48%46%43%40%40%38%21%20%23%20%11%10%10%7%6%7%
Mor3%4%3%5%6%5%12%14%15%12%30%30%33%36%38%39%

Table below shows how countries' chances to win the group depend on results in first matches

Spa - PorIran - Morocco
3-03-12-03-22-11-00-01-12-23-30-11-22-30-21-30-3
3-0Spa85%86%85%86%87%86%89%88%90%89%89%89%88%88%89%86%
Por3%3%4%3%4%4%4%5%4%5%5%4%4%3%3%5%
Ira12%11%11%11%9%9%4%4%4%4%1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2%3%2%3%5%6%7%8%7%8%
3-1Spa81%82%83%85%84%84%87%87%87%89%87%86%86%87%86%83%
Por5%5%6%5%6%6%7%6%6%5%6%6%6%6%6%7%
Ira13%12%10%9%10%9%4%4%4%3%1%1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2%3%3%3%6%7%6%6%8%10%
2-0Spa79%81%84%83%84%84%87%87%88%89%86%87%86%85%85%83%
Por4%5%5%5%6%6%7%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%5%6%
Ira16%13%11%11%10%10%4%4%4%3%2%1%2%< 1%1%< 1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2%2%2%2%6%6%6%9%9%10%
3-2Spa80%78%79%80%81%81%84%84%83%80%84%86%80%82%83%82%
Por5%8%7%8%8%8%9%9%9%12%9%8%9%8%8%7%
Ira15%13%13%11%10%10%4%4%5%5%1%< 1%3%< 1%1%< 1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%2%3%3%3%6%6%8%9%8%11%
2-1Spa77%78%79%80%80%80%84%84%84%84%83%83%82%82%82%80%
Por7%8%7%8%8%9%9%9%9%10%9%8%8%8%8%7%
Ira16%14%13%11%11%10%4%4%4%5%1%2%2%< 1%1%1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%3%2%2%2%7%7%8%9%9%11%
1-0Spa77%78%79%80%80%81%84%83%83%83%83%83%82%82%82%82%
Por7%7%7%8%8%8%9%9%9%9%8%8%9%8%8%6%
Ira16%14%13%12%12%11%4%5%5%5%2%2%2%< 1%1%< 1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%3%3%3%3%7%7%7%9%9%12%
0-0Spa46%48%47%49%48%48%52%51%50%50%48%49%47%49%46%49%
Por35%34%33%31%34%34%37%38%38%38%36%35%36%34%36%34%
Ira18%18%19%19%17%17%7%7%7%8%3%3%3%3%3%3%
Mor1%< 1%1%2%1%2%4%4%5%4%12%13%13%14%15%14%
1-1Spa45%46%47%47%47%47%53%53%52%49%50%49%48%48%48%47%
Por34%33%34%34%34%34%38%37%37%38%35%36%37%34%35%36%
Ira19%19%18%18%17%17%5%6%7%8%3%3%3%3%3%3%
Mor1%2%< 1%1%1%2%4%4%4%4%12%13%12%15%14%14%
2-2Spa47%46%47%47%47%47%53%53%52%50%47%47%47%50%49%49%
Por34%36%34%36%34%33%38%38%38%39%37%37%38%34%35%35%
Ira18%17%17%16%17%18%6%6%7%6%3%3%3%3%2%2%
Mor< 1%1%2%2%1%1%4%3%4%4%13%12%13%13%14%14%
3-3Spa50%51%49%45%49%50%52%54%55%48%49%49%48%47%50%46%
Por29%32%35%36%34%33%39%37%35%43%36%35%40%37%33%32%
Ira20%16%14%18%16%15%5%6%6%7%2%3%2%2%3%3%
Mor< 1%1%2%< 1%1%2%4%3%4%1%13%14%11%14%14%19%
0-1Spa11%14%14%15%13%14%15%16%16%16%15%15%15%14%15%15%
Por70%68%70%71%72%73%77%75%75%77%75%74%75%73%72%71%
Ira18%17%15%13%14%12%5%5%6%5%2%2%2%1%2%1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%1%1%1%3%3%3%3%8%9%9%11%11%12%
1-2Spa12%14%14%14%15%15%16%15%17%16%15%16%14%14%15%14%
Por70%70%70%73%72%73%76%77%76%75%75%74%74%74%72%70%
Ira17%16%15%12%12%11%5%5%5%5%2%2%2%1%1%1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%1%1%1%3%3%3%3%7%8%9%10%11%15%
2-3Spa14%14%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%18%16%15%14%14%15%15%
Por68%72%70%74%73%74%76%76%77%74%75%74%78%75%73%73%
Ira17%14%14%11%11%11%5%5%4%5%2%2%2%1%2%1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3%3%4%4%7%9%7%10%11%11%
0-2Spa11%11%10%12%11%11%12%11%11%13%11%12%11%10%11%9%
Por73%73%75%75%76%77%81%81%82%80%79%78%80%80%77%79%
Ira16%16%14%12%12%11%4%5%4%4%2%2%< 1%1%1%< 1%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3%3%3%2%8%9%8%9%11%11%
1-3Spa10%11%11%10%11%12%11%12%12%12%12%13%9%9%12%12%
Por73%74%76%77%77%76%80%80%80%79%79%77%83%80%78%75%
Ira17%14%13%12%11%11%5%5%4%6%1%2%2%1%< 1%2%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%4%3%3%3%8%8%6%9%9%12%
0-3Spa7%8%8%7%8%8%10%8%11%12%9%8%7%9%5%8%
Por77%79%79%81%80%80%83%85%82%81%82%83%83%81%86%80%
Ira17%13%13%12%12%11%5%4%5%6%2%1%1%1%< 1%2%
Mor< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2%2%2%1%8%8%8%8%9%10%
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