World Cup: Group F - Match Day 1

Group F	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner
Mexico	1	1	0	+1	3	80%	54%
Sweden	1	1	0	+1	3	43%	18%
Germany	1	0	1	-1	0	70%	26%
South Korea	1	0	1	-1	0	7%	2%

uncertainty: 74%

• Mexico clinch Last 16, if they win against South Korea and Germany fail to win against Sweden
• Sweden clinch Last 16, if they win against Germany and South Korea fail to win against Mexico
• Germany are out, if they lose against Sweden and South Korea fail to win against Mexico
• South Korea are out, if they lose against Mexico and Germany fail to win against Sweden  

Probability that teams advance to last 16 given different results in next matches:

Ger - Swe		Mexico - South Korea
		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Mex	96%	96%	96%	97%	89%	89%	71%	70%	69%	67%	66%	65%	65%	65%	65%	61%
	Ger	89%	89%	89%	89%	88%	90%	90%	90%	90%	89%	90%	90%	89%	90%	91%	88%
	Swe	14%	14%	14%	13%	22%	20%	30%	31%	32%	34%	32%	32%	32%	31%	32%	36%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	< 1%	9%	9%	9%	10%	13%	13%	14%	14%	12%	16%
3-1	Mex	97%	89%	90%	89%	89%	90%	68%	70%	70%	71%	66%	67%	66%	46%	58%	44%
	Ger	89%	88%	90%	88%	89%	88%	91%	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%	92%	91%	89%	78%
	Swe	14%	21%	20%	21%	21%	21%	33%	31%	31%	30%	31%	31%	32%	51%	38%	52%
	Sou	< 1%	2%	< 1%	2%	1%	1%	8%	9%	9%	9%	12%	12%	11%	13%	14%	26%
2-0	Mex	97%	96%	90%	90%	89%	89%	70%	69%	70%	68%	67%	67%	68%	59%	66%	44%
	Ger	89%	89%	88%	88%	89%	88%	90%	90%	89%	91%	90%	90%	89%	89%	77%	79%
	Swe	14%	13%	20%	21%	21%	21%	31%	31%	31%	33%	31%	30%	31%	37%	31%	53%
	Sou	< 1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	9%	10%	10%	8%	12%	13%	13%	16%	27%	24%
3-2	Mex	93%	91%	90%	78%	77%	77%	69%	69%	73%	71%	45%	44%	63%	47%	45%	48%
	Ger	83%	85%	84%	82%	85%	87%	86%	88%	86%	87%	89%	90%	86%	75%	79%	79%
	Swe	25%	24%	25%	36%	36%	35%	36%	36%	32%	34%	56%	56%	38%	50%	52%	50%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	1%	4%	1%	1%	9%	7%	9%	9%	11%	10%	12%	27%	24%	24%
2-1	Mex	92%	92%	91%	90%	79%	78%	71%	70%	72%	72%	47%	61%	68%	43%	44%	42%
	Ger	84%	84%	85%	82%	82%	86%	88%	87%	85%	87%	88%	87%	74%	77%	76%	78%
	Swe	23%	23%	24%	23%	36%	35%	33%	34%	33%	33%	54%	39%	32%	54%	53%	54%
	Sou	< 1%	1%	< 1%	5%	3%	1%	8%	9%	9%	9%	11%	12%	26%	26%	27%	26%
1-0	Mex	97%	92%	91%	90%	89%	80%	71%	72%	72%	72%	63%	68%	70%	45%	45%	43%
	Ger	81%	85%	83%	82%	83%	82%	88%	86%	86%	85%	87%	76%	74%	76%	77%	76%
	Swe	21%	23%	24%	24%	24%	34%	34%	33%	34%	33%	38%	32%	31%	52%	53%	55%
	Sou	< 1%	1%	1%	4%	4%	4%	7%	9%	8%	10%	13%	23%	25%	26%	26%	26%
0-0	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	77%	79%	78%	79%	51%	52%	50%	44%	44%	42%
	Ger	30%	33%	31%	31%	31%	31%	50%	49%	51%	45%	69%	66%	63%	69%	73%	76%
	Swe	70%	67%	69%	69%	69%	69%	66%	66%	65%	66%	58%	59%	58%	59%	58%	60%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	7%	6%	10%	23%	23%	29%	28%	25%	22%
1-1	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	77%	77%	78%	79%	48%	49%	52%	45%	46%	47%
	Ger	33%	31%	33%	32%	32%	31%	53%	51%	50%	50%	70%	69%	68%	73%	72%	74%
	Swe	67%	69%	67%	68%	68%	69%	65%	66%	66%	64%	61%	60%	57%	57%	56%	56%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	7%	6%	21%	22%	23%	25%	26%	24%
2-2	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	77%	75%	77%	76%	46%	49%	51%	43%	42%	47%
	Ger	31%	29%	31%	34%	32%	31%	52%	55%	52%	51%	73%	70%	70%	74%	73%	75%
	Swe	69%	71%	69%	66%	68%	69%	66%	65%	66%	66%	61%	60%	58%	59%	60%	54%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	5%	7%	20%	22%	21%	25%	25%	24%
3-3	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	77%	78%	77%	44%	46%	49%	47%	43%	43%
	Ger	32%	30%	29%	29%	32%	33%	53%	55%	53%	53%	76%	73%	69%	76%	69%	78%
	Swe	68%	70%	71%	71%	68%	67%	67%	65%	64%	65%	61%	61%	60%	55%	60%	57%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	3%	5%	6%	19%	20%	22%	22%	28%	21%
0-1	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	98%	98%	99%	65%	67%	70%	59%	63%	62%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	16%	15%	18%	16%	8%
	Swe	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97%	96%	95%	98%	97%	98%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	17%	21%	19%	25%	25%	31%
1-2	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	98%	98%	96%	62%	65%	63%	59%	60%	64%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	20%	18%	17%	19%	16%
	Swe	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	96%	98%	98%	98%	98%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	4%	18%	19%	20%	26%	23%	22%
2-3	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97%	98%	99%	96%	64%	63%	70%	61%	58%	60%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	23%	20%	16%	19%	16%
	Swe	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	97%	95%	97%	99%	99%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	2%	1%	4%	18%	17%	15%	27%	25%	25%
0-2	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	98%	98%	98%	61%	66%	69%	64%	60%	58%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	15%	11%	16%	9%	8%
	Swe	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	98%	97%	99%	97%	99%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	21%	21%	22%	22%	34%	34%
1-3	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	97%	97%	100%	63%	63%	65%	56%	64%	59%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	17%	16%	15%	13%	12%
	Swe	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	99%	99%	99%	96%	99%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	3%	3%	< 1%	22%	21%	20%	30%	27%	30%
0-3	Mex	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98%	98%	98%	100%	68%	70%	69%	66%	60%	65%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	5%	10%	7%	5%
	Swe	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	100%	99%	98%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	< 1%	22%	21%	27%	24%	35%	31%

Probability that teams win group given different results in next matches:

Ger - Swe		Mexico - South Korea
		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Mex	78%	75%	76%	75%	73%	73%	52%	51%	49%	49%	11%	12%	12%	9%	8%	7%
	Ger	21%	24%	23%	23%	23%	23%	41%	41%	43%	42%	77%	75%	73%	77%	78%	77%
	Swe	1%	1%	1%	1%	4%	3%	7%	8%	9%	9%	6%	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	8%	9%	8%	12%
3-1	Mex	83%	76%	75%	72%	73%	74%	50%	51%	50%	52%	14%	15%	18%	10%	10%	8%
	Ger	15%	20%	21%	23%	23%	22%	41%	41%	41%	40%	73%	72%	71%	76%	75%	73%
	Swe	2%	4%	4%	5%	4%	4%	9%	9%	9%	8%	7%	6%	6%	6%	6%	5%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	7%	5%	8%	10%	14%
2-0	Mex	84%	79%	76%	73%	73%	73%	52%	50%	51%	50%	16%	16%	17%	10%	11%	7%
	Ger	14%	18%	20%	22%	23%	22%	39%	40%	40%	41%	71%	71%	68%	74%	69%	74%
	Swe	2%	3%	4%	5%	4%	5%	9%	9%	9%	9%	7%	6%	6%	7%	6%	5%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	8%	10%	13%	13%
3-2	Mex	81%	78%	78%	67%	68%	69%	50%	50%	52%	52%	18%	20%	26%	13%	13%	9%
	Ger	11%	14%	14%	17%	18%	17%	34%	36%	34%	34%	62%	62%	57%	62%	63%	68%
	Swe	8%	8%	9%	16%	14%	14%	16%	14%	14%	13%	15%	14%	12%	12%	12%	11%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	5%	6%	13%	12%	12%
2-1	Mex	82%	80%	79%	77%	69%	69%	53%	50%	50%	51%	19%	25%	26%	12%	15%	8%
	Ger	9%	12%	13%	15%	16%	17%	34%	35%	36%	36%	62%	55%	53%	63%	59%	65%
	Swe	9%	8%	8%	8%	15%	14%	13%	15%	14%	13%	14%	14%	12%	11%	11%	13%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	9%	14%	14%	14%
1-0	Mex	90%	81%	79%	77%	76%	70%	51%	51%	50%	51%	25%	26%	28%	16%	16%	9%
	Ger	7%	11%	12%	14%	16%	16%	35%	35%	37%	34%	56%	54%	51%	60%	60%	65%
	Swe	3%	8%	9%	9%	8%	15%	14%	14%	14%	14%	13%	12%	11%	11%	11%	13%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	8%	10%	13%	13%	14%
0-0	Mex	69%	71%	67%	67%	68%	68%	60%	69%	68%	67%	44%	43%	43%	39%	41%	38%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	31%	29%	33%	33%	32%	32%	40%	31%	32%	33%	51%	52%	53%	53%	53%	57%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	5%	7%	6%	5%
1-1	Mex	68%	69%	69%	69%	68%	68%	45%	61%	68%	70%	42%	42%	44%	41%	43%	42%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	32%	31%	31%	31%	32%	32%	55%	39%	32%	30%	54%	53%	52%	53%	51%	52%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	4%	4%	6%	6%	6%
2-2	Mex	69%	69%	69%	70%	70%	69%	44%	44%	61%	68%	42%	44%	45%	39%	38%	42%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	31%	31%	31%	30%	30%	31%	56%	56%	39%	32%	54%	52%	51%	54%	56%	51%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	5%	4%	7%	6%	7%
3-3	Mex	71%	70%	69%	71%	70%	70%	44%	46%	46%	65%	41%	41%	43%	42%	39%	41%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	29%	30%	31%	29%	30%	30%	56%	54%	54%	35%	54%	55%	51%	51%	56%	55%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	4%	6%	6%	5%	4%
0-1	Mex	72%	69%	69%	70%	69%	62%	43%	45%	44%	47%	44%	44%	46%	22%	21%	22%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	28%	31%	31%	30%	31%	38%	57%	55%	56%	53%	54%	53%	52%	73%	74%	75%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	2%	2%	5%	5%	4%
1-2	Mex	67%	67%	69%	69%	61%	46%	45%	44%	43%	45%	24%	44%	42%	21%	22%	21%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	33%	33%	31%	31%	39%	54%	55%	56%	57%	55%	75%	54%	57%	74%	75%	75%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	2%	1%	5%	3%	4%
2-3	Mex	72%	66%	72%	61%	42%	44%	46%	45%	46%	41%	25%	24%	47%	18%	21%	7%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	28%	34%	28%	39%	58%	56%	54%	55%	54%	59%	74%	75%	51%	77%	76%	86%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	3%	5%	2%	7%
0-2	Mex	74%	70%	61%	41%	44%	45%	44%	44%	46%	44%	20%	22%	28%	24%	25%	9%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	26%	30%	39%	59%	56%	55%	56%	56%	54%	56%	79%	77%	72%	73%	71%	86%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	5%	5%
1-3	Mex	68%	62%	44%	46%	46%	44%	46%	44%	43%	47%	21%	21%	25%	9%	19%	10%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	32%	38%	56%	54%	54%	56%	54%	56%	57%	53%	79%	78%	74%	88%	78%	83%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	3%	3%	7%
0-3	Mex	66%	41%	41%	40%	37%	46%	42%	45%	38%	50%	11%	23%	22%	9%	13%	6%
	Ger	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Swe	34%	59%	59%	60%	63%	54%	58%	55%	62%	50%	89%	77%	77%	91%	85%	93%
	Sou	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%

Country	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champions
Brazil	89%	64%	48%	34%	23%
Spain	82%	62%	41%	24%	13%
Germany	70%	43%	31%	21%	13%
France	83%	52%	29%	14%	7%
Portugal	74%	50%	29%	14%	7%
Argentina	76%	45%	25%	13%	6%
England	81%	51%	22%	11%	5%
Belgium	80%	49%	21%	10%	4%
Colombia	79%	45%	21%	10%	4%
Uruguay	93%	39%	18%	7%	3%
Switzerland	61%	28%	14%	6%	2%
Mexico	80%	33%	15%	6%	2%
Croatia	73%	32%	13%	5%	2%
Denmark	74%	33%	13%	5%	2%
Peru	29%	15%	7%	3%	1%
Poland	58%	25%	8%	3%	1%
Russia	87%	26%	9%	3%	< 1%
Iran	41%	19%	7%	2%	< 1%
Sweden	43%	14%	5%	2%	< 1%
Serbia	45%	15%	6%	2%	< 1%
Iceland	44%	16%	5%	2%	< 1%
Senegal	37%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Japan	26%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Australia	14%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Panama	21%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
South Korea	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Costa Rica	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tunisia	18%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Nigeria	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Egypt	15%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Morocco	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Saudi Arabia	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	World Champions
Uruguay (55%) Russia (43%)	-	-	-	-
-	Portugal (26%) Spain (25%) Uruguay (24%) Russia (14%)	-	-	-
Portugal (39%) Spain (34%) Iran (24%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	France (21%) Spain (16%) Portugal (15%) Uruguay (11%) Argentina (11%)	-	-
France (57%) Denmark (32%)	-	-	-	-
-	France (36%) Argentina (19%) Denmark (15%) Croatia (13%)	-	-	-
Argentina (34%) Croatia (32%) Iceland (29%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	Brazil (24%) Germany (12%) France (10%) Spain (9%)	-
Brazil (63%) Switzerland (20%) Serbia (15%)	-	-	-	-
-	Brazil (44%) Germany (25%) Mexico (9%)	-	-	-
Germany (44%) Mexico (26%) Sweden (25%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Brazil (34%) Germany (18%) England (12%) Belgium (11%)	-	-
England (46%) Belgium (44%)	-	-	-	-
-	England (30%) Belgium (28%) Colombia (14%) Poland (13%)	-	-	-
Poland (32%) Colombia (27%) Senegal (24%) Japan (18%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	Brazil (23%) Spain (13%) Germany (13%) France (7%) Portugal (7%)
Spain (48%) Portugal (34%) Iran (17%)	-	-	-	-
-	Spain (36%) Portugal (24%) Uruguay (15%) Russia (13%)	-	-	-
Russia (44%) Uruguay (38%) Egypt (14%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Spain (24%) Argentina (14%) Portugal (14%) France (9%)	-	-
Argentina (42%) Croatia (41%) Iceland (15%)	-	-	-	-
-	Argentina (26%) Croatia (19%) Denmark (18%) France (16%)	-	-	-
Denmark (42%) France (26%) Peru (21%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	Spain (15%) Brazil (10%) Germany (9%) Argentina (8%) Portugal (7%)	-
Mexico (54%) Germany (26%) Sweden (18%)	-	-	-	-
-	Mexico (24%) Switzerland (20%) Brazil (19%) Germany (18%)	-	-	-
Switzerland (42%) Serbia (29%) Brazil (26%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Colombia (15%) Brazil (15%) Germany (13%) Mexico (11%) England (10%)	-	-
Colombia (52%) Poland (26%) Senegal (14%)	-	-	-	-
-	Colombia (30%) Belgium (21%) England (21%) Poland (12%)	-	-	-
Belgium (36%) England (35%) Panama (15%)	-	-