Sunday, June 10, 2018

World Cup: Group G

In Group G are England and Belgium favourites to advance to round of 16. They also play in the last round of the group, in what might be a group final. Panama and Tunisia need to steal a a win or a draw before that to give them a chance in the last round.

Group G

PldGFGAGDPtsLast 16Group Winner
England0000081%46%
Belgium0000080%43%
Panama0000021%6%
Tunisia0000018%5%
uncertainty: 75%

Probability that teams advance to last 16 given different results in next round.

Bel - PanTunisia - England
3-03-12-03-22-11-00-01-12-23-30-11-22-30-21-30-3
3-0Eng34%39%39%45%45%45%73%73%72%72%91%90%92%93%92%94%
Bel90%89%90%88%90%90%90%91%91%93%93%94%93%94%94%94%
Pan12%12%11%10%11%11%12%12%12%10%7%7%6%7%7%6%
Tun64%60%60%56%54%54%26%24%25%25%9%9%9%6%7%6%
3-1Eng31%37%38%43%43%42%73%72%73%73%89%90%90%91%92%94%
Bel87%88%88%88%89%89%90%90%90%90%93%92%92%93%92%92%
Pan16%14%13%14%14%14%14%12%12%11%10%9%9%8%8%8%
Tun66%61%61%55%54%55%24%25%25%26%9%9%9%7%7%6%
2-0Eng34%37%39%42%45%43%73%73%72%75%90%90%89%92%93%94%
Bel88%88%86%88%88%89%90%90%91%90%91%91%91%93%92%93%
Pan11%12%12%13%12%13%12%12%13%13%9%9%9%8%7%8%
Tun67%63%63%57%54%55%25%25%24%23%10%10%10%7%8%5%
3-2Eng32%35%34%46%44%43%72%73%72%74%87%87%89%91%92%93%
Bel86%86%84%84%85%87%91%90%88%89%90%89%91%90%90%91%
Pan15%17%17%15%18%16%13%14%15%10%14%13%11%11%10%9%
Tun67%62%65%56%53%53%25%24%25%26%10%11%10%8%8%6%
2-1Eng33%37%40%47%46%43%72%72%72%74%88%89%89%92%92%93%
Bel84%84%84%84%85%85%90%89%89%90%89%89%88%90%90%90%
Pan13%16%16%14%15%17%15%14%14%12%13%12%12%11%11%10%
Tun69%63%59%55%54%55%24%24%25%24%11%10%11%7%8%7%
1-0Eng30%36%36%44%44%44%74%73%74%74%89%90%89%92%92%93%
Bel85%85%85%84%85%84%89%88%89%90%88%88%89%90%90%90%
Pan18%16%15%16%16%16%13%14%13%13%11%11%11%10%10%10%
Tun67%63%64%56%55%55%23%25%24%24%11%12%11%8%9%7%
0-0Eng36%41%37%42%42%43%71%74%74%73%89%89%88%90%89%90%
Bel65%64%68%64%67%66%72%69%70%70%70%71%72%71%71%74%
Pan30%28%32%32%32%32%29%29%28%27%27%26%28%28%28%26%
Tun69%66%63%61%59%59%29%28%29%30%14%14%13%11%12%10%
1-1Eng34%38%37%41%42%42%70%71%72%72%88%89%89%90%90%91%
Bel68%66%67%64%66%67%72%70%69%65%72%71%71%71%72%72%
Pan32%29%34%30%31%32%32%31%30%30%28%27%25%27%27%27%
Tun66%67%62%65%60%58%26%28%29%33%12%13%14%11%11%10%
2-2Eng35%38%36%41%41%40%68%70%72%69%88%88%89%90%90%91%
Bel68%69%66%64%68%69%72%70%70%70%73%72%72%73%71%70%
Pan28%30%34%32%31%33%33%33%30%33%27%28%26%26%28%28%
Tun68%64%65%63%60%58%28%27%28%27%11%12%12%11%11%12%
3-3Eng40%40%47%36%43%40%69%70%69%69%89%89%87%89%91%89%
Bel61%61%62%67%66%70%72%71%69%73%76%71%74%72%74%71%
Pan32%38%31%39%32%32%34%33%31%28%26%27%29%28%25%27%
Tun67%61%59%57%59%59%24%26%31%31%9%13%11%11%10%13%
0-1Eng32%41%38%42%45%43%69%69%69%67%85%85%86%88%89%90%
Bel45%44%44%42%41%43%40%39%37%41%43%42%39%41%40%41%
Pan57%54%60%59%56%57%64%63%63%62%59%59%58%59%59%59%
Tun66%62%58%58%59%57%27%29%31%30%13%15%17%12%11%10%
1-2Eng39%38%40%45%43%43%66%67%67%65%83%85%85%88%88%90%
Bel46%38%42%42%43%44%43%41%41%42%45%42%43%43%43%41%
Pan56%58%59%56%58%62%63%63%64%66%59%58%58%58%58%58%
Tun59%66%59%57%55%51%27%30%29%28%13%14%14%10%12%11%
2-3Eng25%38%34%46%41%39%63%66%67%68%84%85%85%86%87%90%
Bel54%41%47%43%45%45%42%41%40%40%42%40%44%43%43%42%
Pan63%58%60%57%59%62%68%65%66%63%60%60%57%61%60%59%
Tun59%63%59%54%55%54%27%28%27%29%14%15%14%10%11%9%
0-2Eng36%37%38%40%46%43%69%67%70%72%83%85%86%88%88%91%
Bel38%41%37%38%35%38%34%37%36%36%36%37%31%36%36%34%
Pan66%55%64%67%64%63%67%67%63%69%67%63%69%65%64%66%
Tun61%66%61%56%55%55%30%29%31%24%14%15%14%11%12%9%
1-3Eng43%37%35%47%47%42%65%68%67%64%84%85%86%87%90%90%
Bel32%44%42%38%38%38%37%38%38%41%36%35%35%37%34%35%
Pan68%65%62%65%59%66%70%69%69%71%66%66%65%64%64%66%
Tun57%53%61%50%57%54%29%26%27%24%15%15%14%12%13%10%
0-3Eng21%40%36%45%51%48%70%69%67%80%83%85%85%88%86%90%
Bel58%30%36%28%30%23%30%34%32%26%37%32%32%27%32%27%
Pan58%69%69%73%72%72%71%72%69%69%70%67%72%74%74%74%
Tun63%61%59%53%47%57%29%25%32%26%10%16%11%11%8%8%

Probability that teams win the group given different results in next round.


Bel - PanTunisia - England
3-03-12-03-22-11-00-01-12-23-30-11-22-30-21-30-3
3-0Eng6%9%9%12%12%12%29%28%29%30%44%44%45%46%46%50%
Bel73%70%73%71%71%71%64%66%64%64%54%54%53%53%53%49%
Pan2%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%1%1%1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Tun19%20%17%16%15%16%5%5%6%6%1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
3-1Eng6%11%10%16%15%13%31%30%30%32%45%45%47%48%50%53%
Bel68%66%70%66%69%69%62%63%62%61%53%52%51%50%49%46%
Pan2%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Tun24%21%19%16%15%17%6%6%6%6%1%1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
2-0Eng8%11%11%14%15%14%31%31%30%32%45%47%47%50%51%54%
Bel67%66%67%68%67%68%62%62%64%62%53%51%51%48%47%45%
Pan2%< 1%1%< 1%1%1%2%2%1%1%< 1%< 1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Tun23%22%21%17%16%17%5%5%5%5%1%1%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
3-2Eng6%12%13%16%17%15%30%32%31%33%46%47%50%52%55%56%
Bel69%62%65%62%62%67%62%61%60%60%51%49%46%46%42%42%
Pan2%3%2%3%2%2%2%3%3%< 1%2%2%2%2%2%1%
Tun23%23%20%19%18%16%6%5%6%6%2%2%1%< 1%1%< 1%
2-1Eng8%14%13%18%18%16%31%31%32%32%47%49%52%54%53%56%
Bel64%60%61%59%62%64%61%61%59%60%50%48%45%44%44%42%
Pan< 1%3%2%2%2%2%3%2%3%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%
Tun27%23%23%21%18%18%5%6%6%6%1%2%1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
1-0Eng7%14%12%16%17%17%30%32%33%31%49%52%51%55%54%58%
Bel60%60%61%62%62%62%61%59%59%60%48%45%46%43%44%41%
Pan3%2%2%2%3%3%2%3%3%3%2%2%2%1%1%< 1%
Tun29%24%24%20%19%18%6%6%5%6%2%1%2%1%1%< 1%
0-0Eng16%22%17%25%22%23%40%44%43%46%61%62%60%64%64%62%
Bel39%37%40%34%39%37%43%38%39%36%30%30%29%28%28%30%
Pan7%9%10%10%10%10%9%9%9%10%7%6%9%7%7%7%
Tun37%32%34%30%30%30%8%9%10%7%2%2%2%1%1%1%
1-1Eng16%19%21%21%23%24%41%42%42%43%60%62%61%64%63%64%
Bel36%36%38%35%38%37%41%40%39%34%31%29%30%28%29%29%
Pan10%9%11%10%10%10%10%9%10%11%7%7%7%7%6%6%
Tun39%35%30%33%29%29%8%8%9%11%2%2%2%1%1%1%
2-2Eng19%20%17%20%24%21%39%40%40%44%61%61%61%63%64%64%
Bel35%40%39%36%37%39%42%41%41%39%31%30%30%29%28%28%
Pan8%7%9%10%10%10%10%11%10%10%6%7%7%7%7%6%
Tun38%33%35%34%28%30%8%8%9%7%2%2%2%1%1%1%
3-3Eng21%18%25%18%24%23%41%42%36%35%63%62%61%63%64%64%
Bel32%32%38%44%36%39%42%41%46%47%30%29%31%29%29%29%
Pan9%14%8%11%9%9%9%9%8%10%6%7%6%7%6%6%
Tun39%36%28%27%31%29%9%8%10%9%< 1%2%2%2%< 1%1%
0-1Eng12%17%17%22%21%23%40%38%39%37%62%63%67%68%70%73%
Bel21%21%17%21%18%20%20%21%20%23%17%16%13%12%11%9%
Pan32%29%34%29%30%28%33%33%29%31%20%19%18%18%17%17%
Tun35%33%31%28%32%29%7%8%11%9%1%2%2%1%1%< 1%
1-2Eng13%16%17%22%20%21%37%39%38%35%60%63%62%67%67%71%
Bel20%16%21%21%19%20%23%21%21%23%16%15%16%13%14%11%
Pan31%32%31%28%32%32%32%32%32%33%22%20%20%18%18%16%
Tun35%36%31%29%29%27%8%9%8%9%2%2%2%1%1%< 1%
2-3Eng9%15%15%26%19%21%34%39%39%40%60%63%61%67%67%71%
Bel18%18%15%20%19%22%21%21%20%22%16%16%18%13%13%11%
Pan39%31%33%29%33%32%37%33%33%32%22%21%19%18%19%17%
Tun34%36%37%25%29%26%8%8%8%6%1%1%2%2%< 1%< 1%
0-2Eng8%14%15%21%21%19%41%36%41%39%60%62%62%68%68%74%
Bel16%15%9%12%13%16%17%19%19%22%12%12%10%10%9%7%
Pan42%28%43%41%35%38%33%36%32%32%26%25%26%20%22%18%
Tun34%44%33%26%30%27%9%9%8%7%2%2%2%1%< 1%< 1%
1-3Eng18%17%14%20%22%20%39%39%35%31%62%61%64%66%68%73%
Bel9%19%16%14%18%15%18%20%19%22%12%12%9%12%10%9%
Pan48%37%36%40%36%37%35%34%39%40%24%25%26%22%21%18%
Tun25%27%34%26%25%28%8%7%7%6%2%3%1%< 1%1%< 1%
0-3Eng11%18%16%14%24%21%43%39%39%43%63%64%63%66%61%70%
Bel5%17%12%6%9%7%11%14%12%14%11%8%9%6%6%5%
Pan42%35%35%51%38%49%39%41%40%34%26%26%26%28%32%24%
Tun42%30%37%30%29%23%7%6%9%9%1%2%2%< 1%1%< 1%
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