CL: Match Day 4: Groups A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.2%	4	9	8-2	Dortmund	qualified if they draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 90%
99.3%	4	9	7-6	Atletico	qualified if Dortmund draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 96%
2%	4	4	6-5	Brugge	14% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	2-10	Monaco

Group A is probably closed. Brugge must win two final games against Dortmund (away) and Atletico (home) to have a chance.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	11-3	Barcelona
73%	4	7	5-5	Inter	qualified if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 61%
27%	4	4	7-9	Tottenham	39% if they win against Inter; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	4-10	PSV

Barcelona have secured advancement. Even if they lose remaining games and both Tottenham and Inter end up on 10 points, they would have 7 points in the sub-table including those three team, Inter would have 4p and Tottenham would have 6p, so Barcelona would finish first and Tottenham second. The key match will be next match between Inter and Tottenham. If Inter manage to at least draw there, they have secured a ticket to the last 16 stage. If Tottenham win it will be important how win the double leg between Inter and Tottenham, where Inter won with 2-1 in Milan. If Tottenham get at least 1-0 or better it will suffice if they take as many point against Barcelona in the last match as Inter do against PSV. If Inter lose with one goal and scores at least two goals (2-3, 3-4 etc) they only need take as many points as Tottenham in the last match. If the match in London finish 2-1, Tottenham need to either take more points than Inter in the last round, or catch up two goals in goal difference (which seems unlikely to do at Nou Camp).

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
69%	4	6	4-3	Napoli	98% if they draw (or win) against Liverpool; otherwise 46%
66%	4	6	7-5	Liverpool	89% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 35%
65%	4	5	11-7	Paris SG	90% if they draw (or win) against Liverpool; otherwise 6%
0.9%	4	4	3-10	Red Star	9.1% if they draw (or win) against Napoli; otherwise 0%

Red Star took the little chance they have by winning against Liverpool.Napoli and PSG drew in Naples making this an extremely open three-horse race. Liverpool have the toughest schedule with PSG away and Napoli home. Napoli play Red Star at home next round and if they win there, a draw in Liverpool will suffice. Liverpool can clinch advancement with a win in Paris. If they draw, they probably need to against Napoli, and if they lose, they probably will need to win with more than one goal. PSG are probanly out if they lose home against Liverpool in next match, whereas if they draw they have really good chances as they play Red Star in last match.

Group D

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.6%	4	10	9-3	Porto	qualified if they draw (or win) against Schalke; otherwise 94%
97%	4	8	4-1	Schalke	qualified if Lok Moskva draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 90%
4%	4	4	3-3	Galatasaray	15% if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	2-11	Lok Moskva

Porto and Schalke won their matches and probably closed the group. Galatasaray need to win remaining matches, away against Moskva and home against Porto, to have a theoretical chance. Porto will clinch advancement if they either take a point home against Schalke or away against Galatasaray. Schalke clinch advancement if they either win against Porto (away) or win against Moskva (home) or Galatasaray fail to win all remaining matches.