CL: Match Day 4: Groups E-H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.6%	4	10	7-1	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 97%
97%	4	8	6-2	Ajax	qualified if Bayern draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 73%
4%	4	4	4-6	Benfica	29% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	2-10	AEK

Group E is almost dead. Benfica need to win against Bayern in next round  to have a chance.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.3%	4	9	12-3	Man City	qualified if they draw (or win) against Hoffenheim; otherwise 93%
70%	4	6	9-8	Lyon	96% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 44%
13%	4	3	8-9	Hoffenheim	28% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 2%
18%	4	2	4-13	Shakhtar	36% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 0%

Hoffenheim kept the group alive with a late equalizer against Lyon. Man City need one more point to qualify. Lyon have probably qualified if they win against Shakhtar in next match. Shakhtar must win against Lyon or they are out. Hoffenheim need a good result against Man City and a draw might not be good enough (if Lyon win).

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	4	9	10-2	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 68%
99.5%	4	9	10-4	Roma	qualified if Real Madrid draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 93%
3%	4	4	4-7	CSKA Moskva	39% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	3-14	Viktoria Plzen

Group G is probably dead. Moskva need to win both against Plzen (home) in next match and against Real Madrid (away) in the last match. Roma clinch advancement if they draw against Real Madrid.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.8%	4	9	7-2	Juventus	qualified if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 91%
84%	4	7	5-2	Man United	99.2% if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 63%
17%	4	5	4-4	Valencia	39% if they win against Man United; otherwise 0.9%
0%	4	1	2-10	Young Boys

Man United scored a very important last minute winning goal against Juventus. Juventus can clinch advancement with a point against Valencia. Valencia will need a good result against Juventus (away), at least as good as Man United get against Young Boys (home), and then beat Man United in the last match at home.

Winner \ Runner-up	Barc	Man	Baye	Juve	Real	Port	Atle	Dort	Live	Napo	Pari	Scha	Roma	Man	Ajax	Lyon	Vale	Inte	Brug	Red	Tott	Hoff	Gala	CSKA	Benf	Shak	Total
Barcelona		1%	2%	2%		3%		9%	4%	5%	5%	11%	12%	12%	11%	8%			<1%	<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	98%
Man City	<1%		2%	2%	3%	3%	6%	9%		5%	4%	10%	12%		10%		2%	11%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		88%
Bayern	<1%	1%		2%	3%	2%	5%		4%	5%	4%		11%	11%		7%	2%	11%	<1%	<1%	4%		<1%	<1%		2%	83%
Juventus	<1%	1%	2%		3%	3%	6%	10%	4%		4%	11%			10%	8%			<1%	<1%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	79%
Real Madrid		1%	1%	2%		2%		6%	3%	4%	3%	8%		8%	8%	6%		9%	<1%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%		<1%	1%	76%
Porto	<1%	1%	1%	1%	2%		4%	6%	3%	3%	3%		8%	7%	6%	5%	1%	8%	<1%	<1%	3%	1%		<1%		1%	72%
Atletico		<1%	1%	1%		1%			2%	3%	2%	6%	7%	7%	6%	5%		7%		<1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	61%
Dortmund	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	1%			1%	2%	1%		4%	4%	4%	3%	<1%	5%		<1%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	37%
Liverpool	<1%		<1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	3%				4%	4%		4%	3%	<1%	4%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	35%
Napoli	<1%	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	2%	3%				4%		4%	4%	3%	<1%		<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	32%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	2%	3%				3%	3%	3%	3%		<1%	3%	<1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	31%
Schalke	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		1%		1%	1%	1%		3%	3%	3%	2%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	27%
Roma	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	1%	2%	1%		1%	3%		3%	2%	2%	<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	23%
Man United	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	1%		1%	<1%	2%	2%		2%	1%		2%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17%
Ajax	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	1%		1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	16%
Lyon	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%		1%	1%	1%	1%		<1%	1%	<1%		<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		11%
Valencia		<1%	<1%			<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%
Inter		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Brugge		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Red Star		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%
Tottenham			<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%
Total	1%	11%	16%	19%	21%	26%	37%	60%	29%	33%	36%	69%	75%	69%	79%	59%	11%	71%	2%	<1%	27%	10%	4%	3%	3%	18%