PL: Predictions after week 28

Predictions after week 28:

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	90.8	87-24	51.1	99.9
Man City	90.2	99-29	48.6	99.9
Tottenham	79.6	76-40	0.291	90.3
Chelsea	73.9	69-41	0.0041	38.4
Arsenal	73.8	79-50	0.0008	39.1
Man United	73.2	74-48	0.0004	32.2

Tottenham lost the derby against Chelsea and the premiership race is now a two-horse race; Liverpool or Man City win the league with 99.7% certainty. Both teams won and City still trailing 0.6 points behind Liverpool in expected points.

Tottenham down to 90.3% chance for top 4. If they take 18 (of 30) points, they have >95% chance to reach CL.

Chelsea climb ahead of Arsenal with their win against Tottenham. If Chelsea take 23 (of 33 points), they have >50% chance to reach CL.

Similarly, Arsenal have >50% chance to reach CL, if they take 20 (of 30) points.

United need 21 (of 30) points to have >50% to reach CL.