Euro 20 Qualifications

Here are the predictions of the Euro 20 Qualifications. Below is each group shown. Countries that finish top 2 are guaranteed a spot in the final tournament. Among countries that do not finish top 2, 16 countries (4 per league) will be picked for the playoff  depending on their ranking from Nations' League as displayed at bottom of this page. Countries that are ranked top 4 within their league are guaranteed a spot in the playoff. If say League A does not have four countries available for playoff because fewer than four countries fail to qualify through the group, countries from a lower league will fill the spots in that playoff.  

Qual column shows total probability country qualify for Euro 20

1st is probability country win the group.

Top is probability country finish top 2 and hence qualify from the group

Atleast Playoff is the probability that country is either finishing top 2 or qualify for the playoff. For countries that are ranked top 4 in their league, this is always 100% as they are guaranteed to (at least) play playoff .

Comment shows some key event deciding whether country qualify. 

Group A	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Czechia	0	0	68%	10%	59%	99.82%	83% if they win against England; otherwise 66%
England (P)	0	0	98.8%	85%	97.1%	100%	99.4% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 97%
Montenegro	0	0	15%	1.5%	15%	15%	30% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 11%
Kosovo (P)	0	0	19%	< 1%	4.8%	100%	24% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 17%
Bulgaria	0	0	36%	2.8%	24%	99.55%	43% if they win against Montenegro; otherwise 27%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group B	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Portugal (H)	0	0	96.4%	68%	91%	100%	98.3% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 92%
Serbia (P)	0	0	78%	19%	61%	100%	90% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 76%
Luxembourg	0	0	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
Ukraine (H)	0	0	66%	13%	48%	100%	83% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 63%
Lithuania	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group C	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Netherlands (P)	0	0	98.7%	58%	96.6%	100%	99.4% if they win against Germany; otherwise 98%
Germany	0	0	97.1%	40%	94%	99.99%	99.1% if they win against Netherlands; otherwise 96%
Northern Ireland	0	0	15%	< 1%	7%	89%	17% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 11%
Belarus (P)	0	0	24%	< 1%	2.2%	100%
Estonia	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Northern Ireland; otherwise 0.4%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group D	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Denmark (P)	0	0	92%	42%	84%	100%	97% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 90%
Switzerland (H)	0	0	95%	51%	88%	100%	97% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 92%
Georgia (H)	0	0	39%	< 1%	3.9%	100%	45% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 38%
Ireland	0	0	36%	6%	24%	97.4%	41% if they win against Georgia; otherwise 28%
Gibraltar	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group E	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Croatia	0	0	95.6%	69%	90%	>99.99%	97% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 92%
Wales	0	0	65%	15%	51%	99.96%	77% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 53%
Azerbaijan	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 0.5%
Hungary	0	0	20%	2.1%	12%	78%	35% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 17%
Slovakia	0	0	60%	13%	46%	99.64%	79% if they win against Wales; otherwise 53%

Group F	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Spain (P)	0	0	97.7%	74%	94%	100%	98.4% if they win against Norway; otherwise 95%
Norway (H)	0	0	40%	2.0%	13%	100%	50% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 36%
Sweden (P)	0	0	80%	18%	65%	100%	87% if they win against Romania; otherwise 69%
Romania	0	0	37%	6%	29%	61%	52% if they draw (or win) against Sweden; otherwise 27%
Faroe Islands	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group G	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Poland	0	0	85%	42%	79%	99.99%	93% if they win against Austria; otherwise 82%
Austria	0	0	87%	48%	82%	>99.99%	93% if they win against Israel; otherwise 81%
Slovenia	0	0	15%	4.0%	15%	15%	26% if they win against Israel; otherwise 11%
Macedonia (H)	0	0	36%	2.0%	9%	100%	42% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 34%
Israel	0	0	22%	4.0%	15%	95%	35% if they win against Austria; otherwise 18%
Latvia	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff

Group H	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
France (P)	0	0	99.91%	96.2%	99.67%	100%
Turkey	0	0	59%	2.1%	51%	99.27%	69% if they win against Albania; otherwise 50%
Albania	0	0	8%	< 1%	8%	8%	18% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 4%
Iceland	0	0	53%	1.6%	41%	99.79%	58% if Albania draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 48%
Andorra	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.3%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group I	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Belgium (P)	0	0	99.36%	88%	98.1%	100%	99.7% if they win against Russia; otherwise 98.1%
Russia	0	0	69%	7%	57%	>99.99%	73% if they win against Kazakhstan; otherwise 60%
Scotland (H)	0	0	66%	5%	44%	100%	69% if they win against Kazakhstan; otherwise 58%
Cyprus	0	0	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.2%	4% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 1%
Kazakhstan	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.1%
San Marino (E)	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Group J	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Italy	0	0	95.8%	65%	92%	>99.99%	97% if they win against Finland; otherwise 91%
Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)	0	0	85%	28%	76%	100%	89% if they win against Greece; otherwise 75%
Greece	0	0	15%	2.9%	15%	17%	28% if they draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 9.3%
Finland (P)	0	0	30%	3.3%	16%	100%	48% if they win against Italy; otherwise 29%
Armenia	0	0	1.5%	< 1%	1.4%	2.6%	7% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 1%
Liechtenstein	0	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff


Tables below show the chances for the countries in each league. Countries are sorted according to their ranking form Nations League, which is also the order in which they are piucked for the playoff.

Top 2 column shows the probability country finishes top 2 in group and thus is not available for playoff.

Playoff column shows the probability country will play in the playoff.

Own League shows the probability country will play in its own league's playoff. This is always the same as 'Playoff' for countries in League A, but countries in lower leagues can end up in the playoff of a higher league.

Home Advantage shows the probability country will play the playoff and play the first match at home.

Comment column shows some key match for that country.

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Switzerland (H)	88%	12%	12%	12%	97% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 92%
B	Portugal (H)	91%	9%	9%	9%	98.3% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 92%
C	Netherlands (P)	96.6%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	99.4% if they win against Germany; otherwise 98%
A	England (P)	97.1%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	99.4% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 97%
I	Belgium (P)	98.1%	1.9%	1.9%	1.8%	99.7% if they win against Russia; otherwise 98.1%
H	France (P)	99.67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Spain (P)	94%	6%	6%	6%	98.4% if they win against Norway; otherwise 95%
J	Italy	92%	8%	8%	8%	97% if they win against Finland; otherwise 91%
E	Croatia	90%	10%	10%	9%	97% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 92%
G	Poland	79%	21%	21%	19%	93% if they win against Austria; otherwise 82%
C	Germany	94%	6%	6%	5%	99.1% if they win against Netherlands; otherwise 96%
H	Iceland	41%	58%	58%	48%	58% if Albania draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 48%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)	76%	24%	24%	24%	89% if they win against Greece; otherwise 75%
B	Ukraine (H)	48%	52%	52%	52%	83% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 63%
D	Denmark (P)	84%	16%	16%	14%	97% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 90%
F	Sweden (P)	65%	35%	35%	28%	87% if they win against Romania; otherwise 69%
I	Russia	57%	43%	26%	31%	73% if they win against Kazakhstan; otherwise 60%
G	Austria	82%	18%	11%	12%	93% if they win against Israel; otherwise 81%
E	Wales	51%	49%	32%	28%	77% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 53%
A	Czechia	59%	41%	25%	19%	83% if they win against England; otherwise 66%
E	Slovakia	46%	53%	35%	24%	79% if they win against Wales; otherwise 53%
H	Turkey	51%	49%	30%	15%	69% if they win against Albania; otherwise 50%
D	Ireland	24%	74%	50%	10%	41% if they win against Georgia; otherwise 28%
C	Northern Ireland	7%	82%	56%	6%	17% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 11%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
I	Scotland (H)	44%	56%	56%	56%	69% if they win against Kazakhstan; otherwise 58%
F	Norway (H)	13%	87%	87%	87%	50% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 36%
B	Serbia (P)	61%	39%	39%	20%	90% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 76%
J	Finland (P)	16%	84%	84%	28%	48% if they win against Italy; otherwise 29%
A	Bulgaria	24%	76%	40%	15%	43% if they win against Montenegro; otherwise 27%
G	Israel	15%	80%	42%	5%	35% if they win against Austria; otherwise 18%
E	Hungary	12%	66%	34%	< 1%	35% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 17%
F	Romania	29%	33%	15%	< 1%	52% if they draw (or win) against Sweden; otherwise 27%
J	Greece	15%	2.0%	2.0%	< 1%	28% if they draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 9.3%
H	Albania	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 4%
A	Montenegro	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 11%
I	Cyprus	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 1%
C	Estonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Northern Ireland; otherwise 0.4%
G	Slovenia	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	26% if they win against Israel; otherwise 11%
B	Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Georgia (H)	3.9%	96.1%	96.1%	96.1%	45% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 38%
G	Macedonia (H)	9%	91%	91%	91%	42% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 34%
C	Belarus (P)	2.2%	97.8%	97.8%	12%
A	Kosovo (P)	4.8%	95.2%	95.2%	< 1%	24% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 17%
B	Luxembourg	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%
J	Armenia	1.4%	1.3%	1.3%	< 1%	7% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 1%
E	Azerbaijan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 0.5%
H	Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.3%
D	Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kazakhstan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.1%
F	Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Latvia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	San Marino (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated