Friday, March 22, 2019

Euro20: groups A, B and H

Group APldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
England (P)1399.51%92%98.8%100%99.83% if they win against Montenegro; otherwise 98.8%
Montenegro1117%1.1%17%17%33% if they win against England; otherwise 15%
Bulgaria1131%1.4%19%99.57%39% if they win against Kosovo; otherwise 25%
Kosovo (P)0020%< 1%6%100%25% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18%
Czechia1068%4.8%59%99.87%71% if Kosovo draw (or win) against Bulgaria; otherwise 66%
(P) Clinched playoff

England won the expected group final with 5-0 against Czechia, while the two challengers, Montenegero and Bulgaria, drew in Sofia.


Group BPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Luxembourg131.6%< 1%< 1%21%3% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 1%
Portugal (H)1195%57%87%100%97% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 90%
Ukraine (H)1170%19%54%100%73% if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 60%
Serbia (P)0076%24%59%100%90% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 73%
Lithuania10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

This group is most likely between Portugal, Serbia and Ukraine. Luxembourg took their chance and won against Lithuania.


Group HPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
France (P)1399.89%95.4%99.61%100%
Turkey1368%3.1%61%99.75%70% if they win against Moldova; otherwise 56%
Iceland1351%1.5%37%99.89%60% if Moldova draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 49%
Albania102.2%< 1%2.2%2.3%3% if they win against Andorra; otherwise 0.8%
Andorra10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Moldova10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.1%
(P) Clinched playoff

No surprises. The there favorites in the group won their matches. We still expect France to win the group while Turkey and Iceland fight about the second spot.



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