CL: Match Day 3 - Groups A, B, C and D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.89%	3	9	9-0	Paris SG
85%	3	4	3-5	Real Madrid	96% if they draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 61%
12%	3	2	2-7	Brugge	35% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 2%
3%	3	1	0-2	Galatasaray	24% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0.4%

Paris and Madrid are likely taking the two spots. Brugge will host Madrid in the last match.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.97%	3	9	13-4	Bayern
86%	3	4	9-9	Tottenham	93% if they draw (or win) against Olympiakos; otherwise 40%
6%	3	3	3-9	Crvena Zvezda	32% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 2%
8%	3	1	5-8	Olympiakos	50% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 0.9%

Crvena Zvevda host Tottenham in the match. They probably need to win that match to have a good chance.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.91%	3	9	10-1	Man City	99.998% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 99%
47%	3	4	6-4	Dinamo Zagreb	91% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 18%
47%	3	4	4-6	Shakhtar	93% if they win against Dinamo Zagreb; otherwise 22%
5%	3	0	2-11	Atalanta	19% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0.6%

Man City virtually clinched qualification. Zagreb host Shakhtar in next match, which will be an important match. The winner are likely joining Man City.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
96%	3	7	7-3	Juventus	99.3% if they draw (or win) against Lok Moskva; otherwise 83%
97%	3	7	5-2	Atletico	qualified if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 86%
6%	3	3	3-5	Lok Moskva	20% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 2%
2%	3	0	1-6	Leverkusen	6% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0.06%

Juventus and Atletico are likely taking the two spots. Leverkusen play Atletico (home) in next match and must win that match.

	Chance Finishing Group			Round Probabilities
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Winner
Liverpool	72%	22%	5%	94%	78%	59%	42%	27%
Man City	99%	1%	< 1%	100%	83%	61%	43%	26%
Barcelona	76%	21%	3%	97%	70%	44%	26%	13%
Bayern	97%	3%	< 1%	100%	70%	41%	21%	10%
Atletico	46%	51%	3%	97%	53%	25%	11%	4%
Tottenham	3%	83%	11%	86%	48%	23%	10%	4%
Juventus	53%	42%	4%	96%	50%	23%	9%	3%
Ajax	63%	25%	11%	88%	44%	18%	6%	2%
Paris SG	93%	7%	< 1%	100%	49%	18%	6%	2%
Chelsea	23%	33%	39%	56%	30%	13%	5%	2%
Real Madrid	6%	79%	13%	85%	33%	14%	5%	2%
Dortmund	21%	60%	16%	81%	32%	12%	4%	1%
RB Leipzig	39%	29%	20%	68%	27%	10%	3%	< 1%
Napoli	19%	47%	30%	65%	25%	9%	3%	< 1%
Valencia	14%	38%	37%	53%	20%	7%	2%	< 1%
Benfica	9%	17%	25%	26%	10%	3%	1%	< 1%
Salzburg	9%	28%	52%	38%	13%	4%	1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	< 1%	47%	41%	47%	15%	4%	1%	< 1%
Lyon	31%	28%	23%	58%	16%	4%	< 1%	< 1%
Inter	2%	15%	47%	18%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	47%	43%	47%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Zenit	22%	26%	31%	48%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Atalanta	< 1%	5%	16%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	< 1%	8%	46%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	< 1%	12%	56%	12%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen	< 1%	2%	35%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	< 1%	4%	33%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Genk	< 1%	3%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lille	< 1%	3%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lok Moskva	< 1%	5%	58%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	6%	43%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	< 1%	3%	31%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%