CL: Match Day 3 - Groups E, F, G and H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
91%	3	7	5-2	Napoli	99% if they draw (or win) against Salzburg; otherwise 68%
98%	3	6	8-6	Liverpool	99.85% if they draw (or win) against Salzburg; otherwise 89%
10%	3	3	11-9	Salzburg	33% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 2%
1%	3	1	3-10	Genk	7% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 0.04%

Important win for Napoli against Salzburg. Salzburg need to win the return in two weeks in Salzburg.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.3%	3	7	4-2	Barcelona	99.7% if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 90%
33%	3	4	3-3	Inter	68% if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 7%
66%	3	4	2-1	Dortmund	92% if they win against Inter; otherwise 30%
3%	3	1	2-5	Slavia Praha	20% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 0.3%

Barcelona will most likely take take one spot and it's a race between Inter and Dortmun about the second one. They play a key match in two weeks where the winner will have a good position.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
79%	3	6	4-4	RB Leipzig	96% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 64%
37%	3	4	5-4	Zenit	65% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 16%
46%	3	4	4-3	Lyon	78% if they win against Zenit; otherwise 30%
37%	3	3	4-6	Benfica	66% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 21%

 Wide-open group where all four teams still have good chances.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
81%	3	6	3-2	Chelsea	97% if they win against Ajax; otherwise 65%
76%	3	6	6-1	Ajax	96% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 53%
41%	3	4	2-4	Valencia	68% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 21%
2%	3	1	2-6	Lille	8% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 0.2%

Three-horce race. Chelsea scored a late winner against Ajax while Lille equalised against Valencia in the last minute making Chelsea's chances increase roughly from 50% to 80%.

	Chance Finishing Group			Round Probabilities
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Winner
Liverpool	71%	27%	2%	98%	81%	61%	43%	27%
Man City	99%	1%	< 1%	100%	83%	61%	42%	26%
Barcelona	87%	11%	2%	98%	71%	45%	26%	13%
Bayern	97%	3%	< 1%	100%	70%	40%	21%	10%
Atletico	46%	51%	3%	97%	52%	25%	10%	4%
Tottenham	3%	83%	11%	86%	47%	22%	9%	4%
Juventus	53%	42%	4%	96%	49%	22%	9%	3%
Chelsea	54%	28%	17%	81%	46%	20%	8%	3%
Paris SG	93%	7%	< 1%	100%	49%	18%	6%	2%
Ajax	33%	43%	23%	76%	35%	14%	5%	2%
Real Madrid	6%	79%	13%	85%	33%	13%	5%	2%
RB Leipzig	52%	27%	12%	79%	33%	11%	3%	1%
Napoli	27%	64%	8%	91%	35%	12%	3%	1%
Dortmund	10%	56%	31%	66%	25%	9%	3%	< 1%
Valencia	13%	28%	51%	41%	16%	5%	2%	< 1%
Benfica	13%	25%	29%	37%	14%	5%	1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	< 1%	47%	41%	47%	14%	4%	< 1%	< 1%
Lyon	21%	25%	27%	46%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Inter	3%	30%	49%	33%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Salzburg	2%	8%	73%	10%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	47%	43%	47%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Zenit	15%	23%	31%	37%	8%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Atalanta	< 1%	5%	16%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	< 1%	8%	46%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	< 1%	12%	56%	12%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen	< 1%	2%	35%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lok Moskva	< 1%	5%	58%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	< 1%	3%	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lille	< 1%	1%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	6%	43%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Genk	< 1%	1%	17%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	< 1%	3%	31%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%