CL: Match Day 4 - Group E, F, G and H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.1%	4	9	10-7	Liverpool	qualified if they draw (or win) against Salzburg; otherwise 91%
98%	4	8	6-3	Napoli	qualified if Liverpool draw (or win) against Salzburg; otherwise 89%
4%	4	4	12-10	Salzburg	21% if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	4-12	Genk

Salzburg need to win both against Genk (away) and Liverpool (home) to have any chance.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
97%	4	8	4-2	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Inter; otherwise 86%
88%	4	7	5-3	Dortmund	95% if they draw (or win) against Slavia Praha; otherwise 45%
12%	4	4	5-6	Inter	38% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 4%
4%	4	2	2-5	Slavia Praha	28% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 0%

Inter are three points behind Dortmund but have better results in head-to-head matches, so Inter need to take three points more than Dortmund to finish second. Inter are playing Praha (away) and Barcelona (home), while Dortmund play Barcelona (away) and Praha (home).

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
94%	4	9	6-4	RB Leipzig	qualified if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 78%
76%	4	7	7-4	Lyon	97% if they draw (or win) against Zenit; otherwise 48%
19%	4	4	5-6	Zenit	43% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 0.5%
11%	4	3	5-9	Benfica	41% if they win against RB Leipzig; otherwise 0%

The two leaders in the group, Leipzig and Lyon, won their matches and are even bigger favorites now.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
67%	4	7	7-6	Chelsea	94% if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 29%
77%	4	7	10-5	Ajax	qualified if they win against Valencia; otherwise 49%
56%	4	7	6-5	Valencia	qualified if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 25%
0%	4	1	3-10	Lille

Tight three-horse race. Valencia have the toughest schedule with Chelsea (home) and Ajax (away). If all three teams finish on the same points a table based on the matches between these teams will decide where standing currently is

               m  p
Chelsea  3  4
Ajax        3  4
Valencia 2  3

Chelsea have the advantage against Ajax in head-to-head matches and Valenica have 1-0 win against Chelsea (away) and 3-0 loss against (Ajax) will likely have advanatge on Chelsea if they finish on same point but against Ajax.

	Chance Finishing Group			Round Probabilities
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Winner
Liverpool	86%	12%	2%	98%	82%	62%	44%	28%
Man City	99%	1%	< 1%	100%	83%	61%	42%	26%
Barcelona	80%	17%	3%	97%	70%	45%	26%	13%
Bayern	97%	3%	< 1%	100%	71%	41%	21%	10%
Atletico	46%	51%	3%	97%	52%	25%	10%	4%
Tottenham	3%	83%	11%	86%	47%	23%	9%	4%
Juventus	53%	42%	4%	96%	49%	22%	9%	3%
Chelsea	39%	28%	33%	67%	37%	16%	6%	2%
Ajax	40%	37%	23%	77%	36%	15%	5%	2%
Paris SG	93%	7%	< 1%	100%	49%	18%	6%	2%
Real Madrid	7%	79%	13%	85%	32%	13%	5%	2%
RB Leipzig	69%	25%	6%	94%	40%	14%	4%	1%
Dortmund	19%	68%	12%	88%	33%	12%	4%	1%
Napoli	13%	84%	2%	98%	35%	12%	4%	1%
Valencia	21%	35%	44%	56%	22%	8%	2%	< 1%
Shakhtar	< 1%	47%	41%	47%	14%	4%	< 1%	< 1%
Lyon	30%	46%	19%	76%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
Benfica	< 1%	11%	40%	11%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	47%	43%	47%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Inter	< 1%	11%	56%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Salzburg	< 1%	4%	88%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Zenit	< 1%	18%	35%	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	< 1%	8%	46%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Atalanta	< 1%	5%	16%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	< 1%	12%	56%	12%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen	< 1%	2%	35%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lok Moskva	< 1%	5%	58%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	< 1%	4%	29%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	< 1%	3%	31%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	6%	43%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Genk	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lille	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%