CL: Match Day 4 - Groups A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	10-0	Paris SG
94%	4	7	7-5	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Brugge; otherwise 82%
6%	4	2	2-8	Brugge	18% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0%	4	1	0-6	Galatasaray

Brugge need to win away in Istanbul and home against Real, while Real lose against PSG.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	15-4	Bayern
94%	4	7	12-9	Tottenham	99.8% if they draw (or win) against Olympiakos; otherwise 61%
0.4%	4	3	3-12	Crvena Zvezda	3% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0%
5%	4	1	5-10	Olympiakos	37% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 0%

Bayern clinched qualification and likely the group win as well. Tottenham play Olympikos in next round and a draw is probably sufficient to qualify. Olympiacos need to beat Tottenham (away) and Belgrade (home) and hope that Bayern beat Tottenham in the last match. Belgrade need to beat Bayern (home) and Olympiakos (away) and hope that Tottenham take at most a one point more.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.85%	4	10	11-2	Man City	qualified if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 98.3%
40%	4	5	9-7	Dinamo Zagreb	69% if they draw (or win) against Atalanta; otherwise 16%
50%	4	5	7-9	Shakhtar	64% if they draw (or win) against Atalanta; otherwise 6%
11%	4	1	3-12	Atalanta	43% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%

Man City almost qualified. They need to lose with less two goals against Shakhtar to clinch qualification in next round. Zagreb play Atalanta (away) and City (home). Shakhtar play City (away) and Atalanta (home). They have better head-to-head against Zagreb so if they win both remaining matches they clinch advancement. Atalanta need to win against both Zagreb and Shakhtar and that neither of the teams manages to win against Man City.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	9-4	Juventus
94%	4	7	5-4	Atletico	qualified if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 75%
3%	4	3	4-7	Lok Moskva	29% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0%
3%	4	3	3-6	Leverkusen	14% if Lok Moskva draw (or win) against Atletico; otherwise 0%

Juventus clinched qualification and Atletico will proibably join them to last 16. Moskva play Leverkusen (home) next where both teams must win and hope Atletico cannot beat Juventus.

	Chance Finishing Group			Round Probabilities
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Winner
Liverpool	86%	12%	2%	98%	82%	62%	44%	28%
Man City	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	82%	60%	42%	26%
Barcelona	80%	16%	3%	97%	70%	44%	26%	13%
Bayern	98%	2%	< 1%	100%	70%	40%	21%	10%
Tottenham	2%	93%	6%	94%	51%	25%	10%	4%
Atletico	30%	65%	5%	95%	48%	23%	10%	4%
Juventus	70%	30%	< 1%	100%	54%	24%	9%	4%
Chelsea	39%	28%	33%	67%	37%	16%	6%	2%
Paris SG	97%	3%	< 1%	100%	49%	18%	6%	2%
Ajax	40%	37%	23%	77%	35%	14%	5%	2%
Real Madrid	3%	91%	6%	94%	34%	14%	5%	2%
RB Leipzig	69%	25%	6%	94%	39%	14%	4%	1%
Dortmund	19%	68%	12%	88%	33%	12%	4%	1%
Napoli	13%	84%	2%	98%	35%	12%	3%	1%
Valencia	21%	35%	44%	56%	22%	7%	2%	< 1%
Shakhtar	< 1%	49%	37%	49%	14%	4%	1%	< 1%
Lyon	30%	45%	19%	76%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
Benfica	< 1%	11%	40%	11%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	39%	57%	40%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Inter	< 1%	11%	56%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Salzburg	< 1%	4%	88%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Atalanta	< 1%	11%	5%	11%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Zenit	< 1%	18%	35%	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen	< 1%	2%	53%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	< 1%	5%	54%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	< 1%	6%	63%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	< 1%	4%	29%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lok Moskva	< 1%	3%	42%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	< 1%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	< 1%	< 1%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Genk	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lille	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%