Leicester failed to win against Tottenham and now need to win against Man United (unless Man United fail to take a point against West Ham). If Man United win against West Ham and lose against Leicester it is a goal difference affair where they currently have the same goal difference, so if United win with three goals against West Ham, Leicester need to win with two goals.
Today Wolves play Palace in their race for top-6 against Tottenham. A win their would mean 72% chance for EL, compared with 27% otherwise. Brighton the Magpies and can secure the new contract mathematically with a point.
Premier League
| Team | Pld | GD | Pts | average GD | average Pts | CL | EL | Contract |
| 1. Liverpool | 36 | +48 | 93 | +51.1 | 97.6 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 2. Man City | 36 | +58 | 75 | +61.5 | 79.7 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3. Chelsea | 36 | +15 | 63 | +14.1 | 65.4 | 83% | 100% | 100% |
| 4. Leicester | 37 | +28 | 62 | +28.6 | 63.8 | 56% | 100% | 100% |
| 5. Man United | 36 | +28 | 62 | +28.5 | 65 | 62% | 100% | 100% |
| 6. Tottenham | 37 | +14 | 58 | +14.1 | 59.5 | < 1% | 77% | 100% |
| 7. Wolves | 36 | +11 | 56 | +10.9 | 58.7 | < 1% | 52% | 100% |
| 8. Sheffield United | 36 | +3 | 54 | +2.81 | 56.6 | < 1% | 11% | 100% |
| 9. Burnley | 37 | -6 | 54 | -5.25 | 55.9 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 10. Arsenal | 36 | +8 | 53 | +9.5 | 56.7 | < 1% | 59% | 100% |
| 11. Southampton | 37 | -11 | 49 | -10.6 | 50.7 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 12. Everton | 36 | -11 | 46 | -10.2 | 49.2 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 13. Newcastle | 36 | -18 | 43 | -19.6 | 44.8 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 14. Crystal Palace | 36 | -17 | 42 | -17.9 | 44.2 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 15. West Ham | 36 | -13 | 37 | -13.3 | 39.6 | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 16. Brighton | 36 | -16 | 37 | -16.6 | 39.4 | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 17. Watford | 36 | -23 | 34 | -25.2 | 35.5 | < 1% | < 1% | 78% |
| 18. Aston Villa | 36 | -27 | 31 | -28.2 | 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 17% |
| 19. Bournemouth | 37 | -27 | 31 | -28 | 31.8 | < 1% | < 1% | 5% |
| 20. Norwich | 37 | -44 | 21 | -46.4 | 21.3 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| The Most Important Events for CL Qualifications |
| Leicester have 93.9% chance if they win against Man United; otherwise 14.6% |
| Man United have 92.8% chance if they draw (or win) against Leicester; otherwise 32.9% |
| Chelsea have 100% chance if they win against Wolves; otherwise 59% |
| Chelsea have 100% chance if Man United win against Leicester; otherwise 76.6% |
| Man United have 68.9% chance if they draw (or win) against West Ham; otherwise 28.9% |
| Man United have 78.8% chance if Wolves draw (or win) against Chelsea; otherwise 49.1% |
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| The Most Important Events for EL Qualifications |
| Wolves have 71.6% chance if they win against Crystal Palace; otherwise 26.7% |
| Sheffield United have 33.5% chance if they win against Southampton; otherwise 2.67% |
| Wolves have 86.2% chance if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 42.3% |
| Sheffield United have 23.7% chance if they win against Everton; otherwise 1.99% |
| Tottenham have 90.3% chance if Crystal Palace draw (or win) against Wolves; otherwise 66.4% |
| Tottenham have 82.6% chance if Chelsea draw (or win) against Wolves; otherwise 56.5% |
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| The Most Important Events for New Contract |
| Aston Villa have 39.7% chance if they win against Arsenal; otherwise 6.72% |
| Watford have 87.4% chance if Arsenal draw (or win) against Aston Villa; otherwise 57.3% |
| Watford have 93.9% chance if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 68.6% |
| Aston Villa have 23.2% chance if Man City win against Watford; otherwise 6.11% |
| Bournemouth have 8.19% chance if Man City win against Watford; otherwise 0% |
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