EL: Matchday 2

PSG and Leipzig are favorites after being in trouble n their CL groups. In the EL groups we have key matches in:

In Group J, Antwerp play LASK. Antwerp have 91% if they win and 44% otherwise, whereas LASK have 39% if they lose and 67% if they take a point.

In Group L, Crvena Zvevda play Gent. If Crvena Zvevda win they have 84% while Gent only have 5%, If Gent at least draw, they have 42% while Crvena Zvevda have 39%.

In Group C,  Leverkusen are favorites and challengers Nice and Slavia Praha play a key match. If Praha win they have 76% while Nice only have 28%. Otherwise Praha have 34% while Nice have 70%

In Group E Granada are favorites (88%), while challengers PSV and PAOK play a key match. If PAOK win they have 59% and PSV only 44%. Otherwise PSV have 80% and PAOK have 21%.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 32	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
	Paris SG			33%	27%	22%	17%	12%	8%
	RB Leipzig			57%	42%	29%	20%	13%	7%
B	Arsenal	11%	88%	99.0%	70%	44%	25%	14%	7%
J	Tottenham	30%	56%	87%	60%	38%	22%	12%	6%
C	Leverkusen	25%	65%	90%	62%	38%	22%	12%	6%
	Real Madrid			25%	20%	16%	12%	9%	6%
I	Villarreal	13%	86%	99.48%	67%	39%	21%	11%	5%
H	Milan	21%	76%	96.5%	64%	36%	19%	9%	4.4%
G	Leicester	23%	75%	98.0%	63%	35%	18%	9%	3.9%
A	Roma	23%	66%	89%	56%	30%	15%	7%	3.1%
	Inter			26%	19%	13%	9%	5%	3.1%
F	Napoli	37%	34%	71%	44%	25%	13%	6%	3.0%
L	Hoffenheim	7%	92%	98.8%	62%	32%	15%	7%	2.8%
	Atalanta			29%	21%	14%	9%	5%	2.8%
	Ajax			56%	35%	20%	11%	6%	2.7%
	Salzburg			57%	35%	20%	11%	5%	2.5%
	Atletico			12%	10%	7%	5%	3.5%	2.2%
D	Benfica	29%	69%	97.9%	56%	28%	12%	5%	2.1%
	Dortmund			18%	13%	9%	6%	3.4%	1.9%
E	Granada	25%	63%	88%	51%	25%	11%	4.6%	1.9%
F	Sociedad	31%	25%	56%	33%	18%	9%	3.9%	1.7%
	Gladbach			27%	17%	10%	5%	2.6%	1.3%
	Olympiakos			46%	26%	13%	6%	2.8%	1.2%
	Shakhtar			22%	14%	8%	4.3%	2.2%	1.0%
	Porto			29%	17%	9%	4.5%	2.1%	< 1%
	Chelsea			10%	7%	4.5%	2.8%	1.6%	< 1%
H	Lille	52%	21%	74%	34%	15%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
	Man United			4.9%	3.7%	2.7%	1.8%	1.2%	< 1%
	Sevilla			5%	4.0%	2.8%	1.9%	1.2%	< 1%
	Liverpool			1.8%	1.6%	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Juventus			6%	4.3%	2.9%	1.8%	1.1%	< 1%
	Lazio			22%	13%	7%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%
	Man City			1.6%	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rennes			49%	23%	10%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
	Zenit			20%	11%	6%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%
K	Dinamo Zagreb	27%	34%	61%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
	Bayern			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Marseille			24%	12%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Young Boys	36%	11%	47%	20%	8%	3.2%	1.1%	< 1%
E	PSV	42%	21%	64%	27%	10%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%
F	Alkmaar	31%	40%	71%	30%	11%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%
	Brugge			39%	18%	8%	2.9%	1.0%	< 1%
C	Slavia Praha	36%	19%	55%	23%	9%	3.2%	1.0%	< 1%
D	Rangers	61%	30%	91%	33%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	LASK	31%	18%	49%	20%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Nice	33%	15%	48%	19%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Braga	66%	24%	90%	31%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			61%	22%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CFR Cluj	36%	21%	57%	20%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Barcelona			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	PAOK	26%	13%	38%	14%	4.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Feyenoord	21%	14%	35%	13%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Celtic	23%	2.9%	26%	9%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	CSKA Moskva	26%	18%	43%	15%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Wolfsberg	27%	35%	61%	20%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Krasnodar			36%	12%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lok Moskva			30%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Rapid Wien	22%	< 1%	23%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Crvena Zvezda	54%	5%	59%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	M Tel Aviv	74%	14%	88%	21%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Gent	24%	< 1%	25%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Molde	67%	11%	78%	19%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Antwerp	36%	25%	61%	16%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			12%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			33%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	AEK	7%	< 1%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Standard	8%	< 1%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bueyueksehir			5.0%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	7%	2.5%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Zorya	4.0%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Razgrad	2.4%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Sparta Praha	3.5%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CSKA Sofia	6%	1.2%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Rijeka	1.5%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Karabakh Agdam	7%	< 1%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Slovan Liberec	15%	1.7%	17%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Sivasspor	5%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dundalk	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Lech	1.7%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Beer-Sheva	5%	1.3%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: After Matchday 2

The most interesting match next week is the one between PSG and Leipzig. If Leipzig win they have 67% chance and PSG only 39%; otherwise Leipzig have 20% and PSG have 83%.

In Group B Shakhtar have a good chance (80%) if they beat Gladbach and otherwise only 43%.

In Group F, Brugge have an important match against Dortmund, with 70% chance if they win and otherwise only 30%.

In Group C, Porta have 74% if they beat Marseille and City at least take a point against Olympiakos; otherwise only 38%.

In Group E, Chelsea can almost clinch (97%) if they win against Rennes; otherwise they have 72%.

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Bayern	< 1%	9%	90%	99.13%	80%	59%	42%	27%
D	Liverpool	1.8%	13%	85%	98.2%	72%	48%	29%	16%
C	Man City	1.6%	8%	91%	98.4%	69%	43%	25%	13%
G	Barcelona	< 1%	8%	91%	99.54%	71%	43%	24%	12%
H	Paris SG	33%	46%	20%	66%	37%	20%	10%	4.8%
A	Atletico	12%	76%	9%	85%	46%	22%	10%	4.3%
B	Real Madrid	25%	28%	28%	55%	33%	18%	9%	4.0%
H	Man United	4.9%	23%	71%	95%	52%	23%	9%	3.6%
E	Sevilla	5%	35%	59%	94%	50%	22%	9%	3.5%
G	Juventus	6%	84%	9%	93%	37%	15%	6%	2.0%
F	Dortmund	18%	30%	46%	76%	36%	14%	5%	1.9%
E	Chelsea	10%	51%	38%	89%	39%	14%	4.7%	1.6%
D	Atalanta	29%	56%	13%	69%	27%	11%	3.7%	1.3%
B	Inter	26%	25%	22%	47%	21%	9%	3.2%	1.2%
H	RB Leipzig	57%	30%	9%	39%	18%	8%	2.9%	1.1%
B	Shakhtar	22%	27%	35%	61%	22%	7%	1.7%	< 1%
C	Porto	29%	51%	4.6%	55%	16%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%
B	Gladbach	27%	21%	15%	37%	13%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Lazio	22%	34%	33%	67%	19%	4.8%	1.0%	< 1%
D	Ajax	56%	29%	2.1%	31%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Olympiakos	46%	30%	4.3%	34%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Salzburg	57%	10%	< 1%	11%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Brugge	39%	25%	17%	42%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Zenit	20%	10%	3.6%	14%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Marseille	24%	12%	< 1%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Rennes	49%	11%	2.3%	13%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	FC Krasnodar	35%	4.1%	< 1%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Lok Moskva	30%	4.3%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Dynamo Kyiv	61%	3.6%	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bueyueksehir	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ferencvaros	33%	3.6%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Midtjylland	12%	1.6%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: After match week 6

Predictions after six weeks:

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
13	Liverpool	81.8	+43	< 1%	99.96%	99.88%	99.69%	99.17%	65%
8	Man City	77.3	+41	< 1%	99.70%	99.30%	98.4%	96.5%	31%
7	Man United	65.4	+18	< 1%	86%	78%	68%	54%	1.9%
11	Tottenham	62.3	+19	< 1%	75%	65%	52%	37%	< 1%
9	Chelsea	62.0	+18	< 1%	74%	63%	50%	35%	< 1%
9	Arsenal	60.5	+13	< 1%	66%	54%	41%	27%	< 1%
12	Leicester	58.5	+8	< 1%	54%	42%	29%	18%	< 1%
10	Wolves	58.2	+4	< 1%	52%	39%	28%	17%	< 1%
13	Everton	55.4	+1	< 1%	36%	25%	16%	9%	< 1%
10	Southampton	52.6	-2	2.1%	22%	15%	9%	4.3%	< 1%
8	West Ham	48.4	-3	7%	10%	6%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%
10	Crystal Palace	47.8	-12	8%	8%	4.4%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Newcastle	46.8	-12	10%	6%	3.3%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Burnley	45.3	-9	14%	4.6%	2.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Leeds	43.9	-15	19%	2.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Aston Villa	43.6	-18	21%	2.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Brighton	42.0	-16	28%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	40.8	-14	33%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	West Brom	33.5	-33	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Fulham	32.4	-32	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

EL: PSG favorites to win Europa League (10%)

Predictions after one match

 

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 32	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
	Paris SG			39%	32%	25%	20%	14%	10%
J	Tottenham	20%	72%	92%	65%	41%	24%	13%	7%
B	Arsenal	18%	77%	95.2%	67%	42%	24%	13%	7%
C	Leverkusen	25%	63%	88%	61%	37%	21%	11%	6%
	Real Madrid			24%	19%	15%	11%	8%	5%
I	Villarreal	14%	82%	95.4%	65%	38%	20%	10%	4.8%
	RB Leipzig			36%	27%	19%	13%	8%	4.7%
	Atletico			21%	16%	12%	9%	6%	3.6%
H	Milan	27%	54%	81%	53%	30%	16%	8%	3.5%
G	Leicester	23%	63%	86%	55%	31%	16%	7%	3.3%
F	Napoli	32%	45%	77%	49%	28%	14%	7%	3.2%
	Inter			28%	20%	14%	9%	6%	3.1%
	Ajax			59%	37%	22%	12%	6%	2.8%
A	Roma	28%	55%	82%	51%	28%	14%	6%	2.7%
L	Hoffenheim	23%	66%	89%	54%	28%	13%	6%	2.5%
	Dortmund			22%	16%	11%	7%	4.2%	2.3%
	Man United			15%	12%	8%	6%	3.8%	2.3%
F	Sociedad	34%	38%	72%	43%	23%	11%	5.0%	2.2%
	Salzburg			49%	30%	17%	9%	4.5%	2.1%
	Atalanta			23%	16%	11%	7%	3.9%	2.1%
D	Benfica	26%	58%	84%	48%	24%	11%	4.4%	1.8%
E	Granada	28%	48%	76%	44%	21%	10%	3.9%	1.6%
	Chelsea			17%	12%	8%	4.6%	2.6%	1.4%
	Gladbach			28%	18%	10%	6%	2.7%	1.3%
	Sevilla			9%	7%	5.0%	3.3%	2.1%	1.2%
	Man City			3.7%	3.2%	2.7%	2.1%	1.6%	1.1%
	Porto			34%	20%	11%	5%	2.4%	1.1%
	Shakhtar			21%	13%	7%	4.0%	2.0%	< 1%
	Liverpool			2.4%	2.1%	1.8%	1.5%	1.2%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			32%	18%	9%	4.5%	1.9%	< 1%
H	Lille	35%	27%	62%	30%	14%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
	Bayern			1.6%	1.4%	1.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Barcelona			2.2%	1.9%	1.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Young Boys	36%	28%	64%	29%	12%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%
	Lazio			21%	12%	6%	3.0%	1.3%	< 1%
	Zenit			24%	13%	7%	3.0%	1.3%	< 1%
	Juventus			5%	3.7%	2.5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Marseille			30%	16%	8%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%
K	Dinamo Zagreb	27%	38%	65%	30%	12%	4.3%	1.4%	< 1%
	Rennes			39%	19%	8%	3.0%	1.0%	< 1%
E	PSV	31%	27%	58%	25%	10%	3.4%	1.0%	< 1%
C	Slavia Praha	37%	19%	56%	24%	10%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%
	Brugge			32%	15%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
J	LASK	42%	18%	60%	24%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Nice	34%	17%	51%	21%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Alkmaar	25%	14%	39%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Feyenoord	27%	26%	53%	21%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Celtic	27%	15%	42%	16%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
E	PAOK	28%	20%	47%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Rangers	34%	23%	57%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Rapid Wien	48%	15%	63%	21%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			53%	19%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Braga	31%	16%	47%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CFR Cluj	27%	15%	42%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
K	CSKA Moskva	25%	20%	45%	16%	4.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
G	AEK	29%	15%	44%	15%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Gent	36%	18%	55%	18%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Standard	31%	17%	48%	15%	4.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lok Moskva			29%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Krasnodar			35%	12%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Wolfsberg	21%	15%	37%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Crvena Zvezda	31%	13%	44%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			39%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Molde	33%	8%	40%	10%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	M Tel Aviv	40%	10%	50%	12%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bueyueksehir			9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Razgrad	19%	4.9%	24%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Antwerp	20%	5%	25%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Zorya	17%	6%	24%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	14%	6%	19%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Sparta Praha	11%	3.8%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Rijeka	9%	3.1%	12%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Karabakh Agdam	24%	4.5%	29%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CSKA Sofia	10%	3.0%	13%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Sivasspor	22%	3.9%	26%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Lech	9%	2.5%	11%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Slovan Liberec	10%	2.5%	13%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Beer-Sheva	3.8%	< 1%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dundalk	1.2%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%