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Roma, Arsenal, Leicester, and Hoffenheim have clinched a spot in last 32. The following team can clinch a spot next week
- Young Boys clinch if take point against Roma and Sofia beat Cluj
- Leverkusen clinch if the take point against Nice
- Slavia Praha clinch if they take point against Beer-Sheva
- Benfica clinch if they beat Lech
- Rangers clinch if they take point against Standard and Benfica take point against Lech
- PSV clinch if they beat Granada and Omonia beat PAOK
- Granada clinch if they beat PSV and Omonia take point against PAOK
- Sociedad clinch if they beat Rijeka and Napoli beat Alkmaar
- Napoli clinch if they beat Alkmaar and Rijeka take point against Sociedad
- Alkmaar clinch if they beat Napoli and Rijeka take point against Sociedad
- Braga clinch if they take point against AEK and Leicester take point against Zorya
- Lille clinch if they beat Sparta Praha
- Milan clinch if they beat Celtic and Lille beat Sparta Praha
- Villareal clinch if take point against Sivasspor or Karan=bakh Agdam take point against M Tel Aviv
- M Tel Aviv clinch if they beat Karabakh Agdam and Villareal beat Sivasspor
- Antwerp clinch if they take point against Razgrad and Tottenham take point against LASK
- Tottenham clinch if they take point against LASK
- Feyernoord clinch if they beat Zagreb and Moskva take point against Wolfsberg
- Crvena Zvevda clinch if they take point against Hoffenheim or Gent take point against Slovan Liberec
Most open group at the moment is Group F with Napoli (9p), Sociedad (7p) and Alkmaar (7p). Alkmaar play Napoli at home while Sociedad play host Rijeka (0p). If Sociedad win, Alkmaar need to steal a point in Napels, since Socidead have better head-to-head results against Alkmaar.
| Chance in Group | Stage-by-stage Probabilities | ||||||||
| Group | Team | 2nd | 1st | Last 32 | Last 16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| J | Tottenham | 16% | 80% | 96.1% | 72% | 47% | 30% | 18% | 10% |
| B | Arsenal | < 1% | 99.89% | 100% | 75% | 48% | 29% | 17% | 9% |
| Paris SG | 37% | 28% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 7% | |||
| G | Leicester | 2.8% | 97.2% | 100% | 71% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 6% |
| C | Leverkusen | 29% | 71% | 99.97% | 68% | 40% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| H | Milan | 55% | 37% | 92% | 59% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% |
| I | Villarreal | 2.3% | 97.7% | >99.99% | 70% | 40% | 21% | 11% | 5% |
| RB Leipzig | 49% | 34% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 4.8% | |||
| Atletico | 24% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 4.2% | |||
| A | Roma | 7% | 93% | 100% | 67% | 36% | 18% | 9% | 3.9% |
| Atalanta | 46% | 31% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3.5% | |||
| L | Hoffenheim | 5% | 95% | 100% | 65% | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3.3% |
| F | Sociedad | 48% | 28% | 76% | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3.3% |
| F | Napoli | 23% | 59% | 82% | 52% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3.1% |
| Inter | 35% | 25% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 3.1% | |||
| E | Granada | 10% | 88% | 98.0% | 63% | 32% | 15% | 7% | 3.0% |
| D | Benfica | 33% | 65% | 98.8% | 58% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2.8% |
| Real Madrid | 10% | 8% | 6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | |||
| Ajax | 52% | 31% | 17% | 9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | |||
| Salzburg | 41% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | |||
| Shakhtar | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | |||
| Man United | 11% | 8% | 6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | |||
| H | Lille | 34% | 59% | 94% | 49% | 22% | 9% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Olympiakos | 87% | 44% | 20% | 8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | |||
| D | Rangers | 64% | 34% | 97.7% | 42% | 17% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% |
| Gladbach | 15% | 9% | 5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | < 1% | |||
| Liverpool | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Brugge | 66% | 29% | 12% | 4.1% | 1.3% | < 1% | |||
| E | PSV | 58% | 8% | 66% | 25% | 9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | < 1% |
| Rennes | 58% | 25% | 10% | 3.3% | 1.0% | < 1% | |||
| K | Dinamo Zagreb | 20% | 71% | 92% | 39% | 13% | 3.9% | 1.0% | < 1% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 71% | 28% | 10% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Lazio | 12% | 7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| G | Braga | 92% | 2.8% | 95% | 30% | 10% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| C | Slavia Praha | 69% | 29% | 97.1% | 33% | 10% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Zenit | 22% | 10% | 4.1% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| A | Young Boys | 71% | 7% | 77% | 25% | 8% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| F | Alkmaar | 29% | 13% | 42% | 14% | 4.6% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Marseille | 12% | 5% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| B | Rapid Wien | 55% | < 1% | 55% | 16% | 5.0% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| K | Feyenoord | 38% | 21% | 59% | 19% | 5% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| J | Antwerp | 73% | 19% | 92% | 24% | 6% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| J | LASK | 11% | 1.0% | 12% | 4.6% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Dortmund | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| L | Crvena Zvezda | 95% | 5% | 99.95% | 23% | 5% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| I | M Tel Aviv | 85% | 1.8% | 87% | 20% | 5.0% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| E | PAOK | 30% | 3.6% | 34% | 10% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Porto | 1.9% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Lok Moskva | 35% | 11% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| K | CSKA Moskva | 13% | 5% | 18% | 6% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| A | CFR Cluj | 23% | < 1% | 23% | 6% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| FC Krasnodar | 42% | 12% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| K | Wolfsberg | 29% | 3.0% | 32% | 8% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| B | Molde | 45% | < 1% | 45% | 9% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Ferencvaros | 29% | 8% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| G | AEK | 2.0% | < 1% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| H | Sparta Praha | 11% | 3.5% | 14% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Bueyueksehir | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| D | Standard | 1.9% | < 1% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| G | Zorya | 3.2% | < 1% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| I | Sivasspor | 13% | < 1% | 13% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| C | Nice | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| D | Lech | 1.1% | < 1% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| E | Omonia | 2.4% | < 1% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| C | Beer-Sheva | 2.9% | < 1% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| L | Slovan Liberec | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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