PL: Predictions of the New Year matches

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	77%	14%	9%	Fulham
Newcastle	20%	21%	58%	Liverpool
Everton	48%	24%	28%	West Ham
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Aston Villa
Tottenham	71%	17%	12%	Leeds
Crystal Palace	56%	22%	22%	Sheffield United
Brighton	37%	24%	39%	Wolves
West Brom	26%	23%	51%	Arsenal
Burnley	61%	20%	19%	Fulham
Newcastle	39%	24%	36%	Leicester
Chelsea	41%	24%	35%	Man City
Southampton	25%	23%	53%	Liverpool

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
32	Liverpool	79.9	+45	< 1%	99.96%	99.9%	99.6%	98.6%	66%
26	Man City	75.1	+36	< 1%	99.5%	98.7%	96.8%	92%	23%
30	Man United	69.8	+21	< 1%	96.1%	92%	84%	69%	6%
26	Tottenham	67.6	+27	< 1%	93%	87%	75%	58%	3.2%
26	Chelsea	65.7	+28	< 1%	88%	79%	65%	44%	1.6%
29	Leicester	61.5	+12	< 1%	67%	51%	33%	18%	< 1%
29	Everton	59.5	+4	< 1%	51%	35%	20%	10%	< 1%
26	Southampton	56.3	+5	< 1%	31%	19%	9%	3.8%	< 1%
21	Wolves	54.5	-1	< 1%	20%	11%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
20	Arsenal	54.2	+3	< 1%	20%	11%	4.9%	1.9%	< 1%
23	West Ham	53.3	+1	< 1%	16%	8%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
23	Aston Villa	51.3	+0	< 1%	11%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Newcastle	47.2	-14	2.1%	2.7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	47.1	-11	1.6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Crystal Palace	45.4	-16	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	43.6	-19	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Brighton	39.2	-15	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Fulham	32.0	-29	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	West Brom	26.4	-46	95.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Sheffield United	24.9	-32	96.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: Matchday 15

Matchday 15

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
32	Liverpool	79.9	+44	< 1%	99.96%	99.85%	99.51%	98.5%	65%
26	Man City	75.1	+36	< 1%	99.48%	98.6%	96.5%	92%	24%
27	Man United	68.7	+21	< 1%	94%	88%	78%	61%	4.4%
26	Tottenham	67.6	+27	< 1%	93%	86%	74%	56%	3.1%
25	Chelsea	67.0	+30	< 1%	91%	84%	71%	53%	2.7%
28	Leicester	61.9	+12	< 1%	68%	52%	34%	19%	< 1%
29	Everton	59.5	+4	< 1%	50%	34%	19%	9%	< 1%
25	Southampton	57.0	+6	< 1%	35%	22%	11%	4.9%	< 1%
21	Wolves	55.3	-1	< 1%	24%	14%	7%	2.8%	< 1%
22	West Ham	53.2	+1	< 1%	16%	9%	3.8%	1.4%	< 1%
17	Arsenal	52.6	+2	< 1%	14%	7%	3.0%	1.1%	< 1%
22	Aston Villa	50.8	-1	< 1%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Newcastle	47.2	-14	2.4%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	45.8	-16	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Leeds	45.5	-16	3.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	42.5	-19	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Brighton	40.6	-15	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Fulham	32.0	-29	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	West Brom	27.8	-41	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Sheffield United	25.8	-32	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: Matchday 14

 Matchday 14

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
31	Liverpool	81.6	+47	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.71%	99.0%	73%
23	Man City	74.5	+35	< 1%	99.26%	98.1%	95.3%	89%	17%
26	Man United	69.0	+21	< 1%	94%	88%	77%	60%	3.9%
25	Chelsea	68.4	+32	< 1%	94%	88%	77%	59%	3.2%
25	Tottenham	68.0	+27	< 1%	93%	86%	74%	55%	2.7%
27	Leicester	62.4	+13	< 1%	70%	54%	35%	20%	< 1%
26	Everton	57.8	+3	< 1%	40%	24%	12%	6%	< 1%
24	Southampton	57.6	+6	< 1%	40%	24%	13%	6%	< 1%
20	Wolves	55.8	-1	< 1%	27%	15%	7%	3.1%	< 1%
21	West Ham	54.1	+2	< 1%	20%	11%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%
14	Arsenal	51.0	+0	< 1%	10%	4.5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Aston Villa	49.5	-4	1.1%	7%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Newcastle	47.6	-14	2.3%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	46.9	-14	2.6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leeds	44.1	-17	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	43.6	-18	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Brighton	40.5	-15	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Fulham	32.2	-29	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Sheffield United	27.2	-31	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	West Brom	27.0	-43	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: Matchday 13

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
28	Liverpool	80.6	+41	< 1%	99.95%	99.85%	99.53%	98.5%	70%
20	Man City	73.2	+35	< 1%	98.7%	97.1%	94%	86%	16%
25	Tottenham	69.9	+30	< 1%	95.7%	92%	84%	71%	7%
22	Chelsea	67.5	+30	< 1%	92%	85%	74%	56%	3.5%
20	Man United	67.1	+18	< 1%	89%	81%	69%	50%	3.1%
24	Leicester	60.2	+10	< 1%	57%	42%	26%	14%	< 1%
24	Southampton	58.7	+7	< 1%	47%	32%	18%	9%	< 1%
20	Wolves	57.1	-0	< 1%	35%	23%	12%	6%	< 1%
23	Everton	56.3	+2	< 1%	31%	19%	10%	4.4%	< 1%
21	West Ham	54.8	+3	< 1%	24%	14%	7%	3.0%	< 1%
14	Arsenal	52.3	+1	< 1%	14%	8%	3.4%	1.3%	< 1%
17	Newcastle	48.6	-13	2.0%	4.8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Aston Villa	48.5	-7	2.3%	6%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Crystal Palace	47.7	-8	2.1%	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leeds	44.6	-14	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Burnley	42.1	-20	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Brighton	41.3	-15	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Fulham	31.9	-30	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	West Brom	28.4	-40	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	28.1	-31	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: Matchday 12

 Matchday 12

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
25	Liverpool	79.6	+41	< 1%	99.91%	99.71%	99.08%	97.2%	59%
19	Man City	74.9	+37	< 1%	99.19%	98.1%	95.3%	89%	23%
25	Tottenham	70.6	+30	< 1%	96.3%	92%	85%	70%	9%
22	Chelsea	68.9	+31	< 1%	94%	88%	78%	61%	5%
20	Man United	67.1	+18	< 1%	89%	80%	66%	45%	2.9%
24	Leicester	62.1	+12	< 1%	67%	52%	34%	19%	< 1%
23	Southampton	58.6	+6	< 1%	45%	30%	16%	8%	< 1%
20	West Ham	55.6	+4	< 1%	28%	16%	8%	3.3%	< 1%
17	Wolves	55.4	-1	< 1%	26%	15%	7%	3.1%	< 1%
20	Everton	54.2	-1	< 1%	21%	11%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
13	Arsenal	53.1	+2	< 1%	17%	9%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%
17	Newcastle	49.8	-10	1.4%	7%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Aston Villa	48.5	-7	2.2%	6%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Crystal Palace	47.7	-8	2.3%	3.7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leeds	43.2	-17	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Burnley	42.1	-20	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Brighton	41.7	-15	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Fulham	32.4	-30	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	28.1	-31	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	West Brom	27.7	-43	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

EL: Last 64

Predictions of last 64 in Europa League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 32	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
J	Tottenham	< 1%	100%	100%	81%	57%	38%	25%	15%
	Man United			100%	75%	52%	35%	23%	14%
C	Leverkusen	< 1%	100%	100%	76%	49%	30%	18%	10%
H	Milan	< 1%	100%	100%	72%	44%	25%	14%	7%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	100%	100%	72%	43%	24%	13%	6%
G	Leicester	< 1%	100%	100%	71%	41%	23%	12%	6%
I	Villarreal	< 1%	100%	100%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
F	Napoli	< 1%	100%	100%	70%	41%	22%	12%	6%
A	Roma	< 1%	100%	100%	69%	39%	21%	10%	5%
	Ajax			100%	60%	33%	17%	8%	4.0%
F	Sociedad	100%	< 1%	100%	53%	29%	15%	8%	3.6%
	Shakhtar			100%	58%	31%	15%	7%	3.2%
L	Hoffenheim	< 1%	100%	100%	63%	32%	15%	6%	2.8%
	Salzburg			100%	54%	27%	12%	5%	2.3%
D	Benfica	100%	< 1%	100%	46%	23%	10%	4.3%	1.8%
H	Lille	100%	< 1%	100%	43%	20%	9%	3.4%	1.4%
	Olympiakos			100%	47%	20%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
E	Granada	100%	< 1%	100%	40%	17%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
K	Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	100%	100%	53%	21%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
D	Rangers	< 1%	100%	100%	53%	21%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
E	PSV	< 1%	100%	100%	53%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
C	Slavia Praha	100%	< 1%	100%	38%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Brugge			100%	43%	16%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
G	Braga	100%	< 1%	100%	34%	12%	4.1%	1.2%	< 1%
A	Young Boys	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	11%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			100%	37%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Crvena Zvezda	100%	< 1%	100%	25%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Antwerp	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
I	M Tel Aviv	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Krasnodar			100%	25%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Molde	100%	< 1%	100%	20%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Wolfsberg	100%	< 1%	100%	18%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: After Matchday 6

 Predicted chances before the draw of knock-out stage

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	83%	61%	45%	29%
D	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	74%	48%	29%	16%
C	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	70%	43%	25%	13%
G	Barcelona	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	47%	25%	13%	6%
E	Chelsea	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	60%	29%	13%	6%
H	Paris SG	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	61%	29%	13%	5%
A	Atletico	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	49%	24%	11%	4.9%
B	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	63%	28%	12%	4.8%
G	Juventus	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	54%	22%	8%	3.2%
H	RB Leipzig	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	43%	19%	8%	3.2%
F	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	51%	21%	8%	3.0%
E	Sevilla	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	33%	12%	4.3%	1.5%
B	Gladbach	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	32%	11%	3.5%	1.1%
D	Atalanta	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	31%	11%	3.3%	1.1%
C	Porto	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	30%	9%	2.6%	< 1%
F	Lazio	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	21%	6%	1.4%	< 1%

PL: Mathcweek 11

 Tottenham and Chelsea are now contenders with a substantial chance in the title race.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
24	Liverpool	80.9	+43	< 1%	99.94%	99.81%	99.34%	97.7%	62%
18	Man City	75.2	+37	< 1%	99.23%	98.1%	95.2%	88%	20%
24	Tottenham	71.2	+30	< 1%	96.8%	93%	86%	71%	8%
22	Chelsea	70.5	+32	< 1%	95.9%	92%	83%	67%	7%
19	Man United	67.4	+18	< 1%	90%	81%	67%	45%	2.7%
21	Leicester	61.1	+11	< 1%	62%	46%	28%	14%	< 1%
20	Southampton	57.7	+4	< 1%	40%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%
17	Wolves	57.5	+1	< 1%	38%	24%	12%	5%	< 1%
13	Arsenal	55.1	+4	< 1%	27%	15%	7%	2.7%	< 1%
17	West Ham	53.9	+3	< 1%	21%	12%	5.0%	1.8%	< 1%
17	Everton	52.4	-2	< 1%	15%	8%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
14	Newcastle	48.9	-10	2.0%	6%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	47.8	-9	2.3%	4.2%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Aston Villa	46.3	-9	4.5%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leeds	44.6	-16	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Brighton	42.4	-13	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Burnley	39.9	-22	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	Fulham	31.9	-32	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	28.9	-29	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	West Brom	28.4	-43	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

EL: After matchday 5

Nineteen teams have clinched a spot in last 64. There are a couple of do-or-die matches:

In Group K, Wolfsberg host Feyernord. Feyernord need to win to snitch the last spot in that group.

In Group A, Young Boys and Cluj play a deciding match in Bern. Young Boys need to take a point.

In Group I Sivasspor and Tel Aviv play a deciding match. Sivasspor need to win to clinch a spot in the last 64.

 In Group B, Rapid Wien need to beat Molde with 1-0 or with two goals; otherwise Molde take the second spot in Group B.

In Group F, three groups fight over two spots. Napoli host Sociedad and Rijeka host Alkmaar. Napoli clinch a spot if they at least draw or Rijeka take point against Alkmaar. Alkmaar clinch a spot if they win or if they draw and Sociedad lose. Sociedad clinch if they win or if they take at least as many points as Alkmaar.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 32	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
J	Tottenham	24%	76%	100%	74%	49%	30%	18%	10%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	100%	100%	74%	47%	29%	16%	9%
	Atletico			36%	28%	21%	15%	10%	6%
G	Leicester	19%	81%	100%	69%	41%	23%	12%	6%
	Man United			46%	34%	24%	16%	10%	6%
C	Leverkusen	32%	68%	100%	67%	40%	22%	12%	6%
H	Milan	61%	39%	100%	64%	38%	21%	11%	6%
I	Villarreal	< 1%	100%	100%	69%	40%	21%	11%	5%
	RB Leipzig			53%	37%	24%	15%	9%	5%
A	Roma	< 1%	100%	100%	67%	36%	18%	8%	3.8%
F	Napoli	27%	61%	88%	55%	30%	15%	7%	3.4%
L	Hoffenheim	< 1%	100%	100%	65%	34%	16%	7%	3.2%
	Atalanta			43%	29%	18%	11%	6%	3.2%
	Real Madrid			16%	12%	9%	7%	4.8%	3.1%
	Salzburg			62%	38%	22%	12%	6%	2.9%
E	Granada	39%	61%	100%	59%	31%	15%	7%	2.9%
D	Benfica	68%	32%	100%	54%	28%	13%	6%	2.6%
F	Sociedad	30%	29%	59%	36%	20%	11%	5%	2.5%
	Ajax			57%	34%	18%	9%	4.5%	2.1%
	Gladbach			51%	31%	17%	9%	4.3%	2.0%
H	Lille	39%	61%	100%	51%	23%	9%	3.4%	1.3%
	Olympiakos			91%	46%	21%	9%	3.3%	1.3%
	Shakhtar			23%	14%	8%	4.0%	2.0%	< 1%
	Inter			11%	7%	4.8%	2.9%	1.7%	< 1%
D	Rangers	32%	68%	100%	47%	18%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
E	PSV	61%	39%	100%	41%	16%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
	Brugge			78%	34%	13%	4.7%	1.5%	< 1%
	Lazio			22%	12%	6%	2.7%	1.1%	< 1%
K	Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	100%	100%	45%	15%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			78%	31%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Braga	81%	19%	100%	34%	11%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Paris SG			1.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Slavia Praha	68%	32%	100%	34%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Young Boys	75%	< 1%	75%	23%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Alkmaar	44%	10%	53%	17%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Rapid Wien	42%	< 1%	42%	12%	3.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Marseille			9%	4.0%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Antwerp	76%	24%	100%	26%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Krasnodar			100%	28%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
I	M Tel Aviv	84%	< 1%	84%	20%	4.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Crvena Zvezda	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Feyenoord	31%	< 1%	31%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Wolfsberg	69%	< 1%	69%	16%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	CFR Cluj	25%	< 1%	25%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Molde	58%	< 1%	58%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			22%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lok Moskva			2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Sivasspor	16%	< 1%	16%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%