PL: 90% probability that Man City or Liverpool win the league

 We are back at a two-horse race with 90% probability that Man City or Liverpool win the league.

 

50% Confidence Intervals

Simulated points for winner: 78 - 83
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
41	Man City	79.0	+42	< 1%	99.95%	99.85%	99.55%	98.7%	67%
37	Liverpool	74.2	+38	< 1%	99.59%	98.9%	97.4%	94%	23%
38	Man United	69.4	+20	< 1%	95.6%	91%	83%	70%	5%
39	Leicester	66.5	+18	< 1%	89%	80%	67%	49%	2.0%
33	Tottenham	65.3	+24	< 1%	85%	75%	61%	42%	1.3%
33	Everton	61.7	+8	< 1%	61%	46%	30%	17%	< 1%
30	Chelsea	60.6	+19	< 1%	58%	42%	26%	14%	< 1%
35	West Ham	58.7	+4	< 1%	39%	25%	14%	7%	< 1%
30	Arsenal	57.2	+10	< 1%	31%	19%	10%	4.6%	< 1%
29	Southampton	56.1	+4	< 1%	23%	13%	7%	2.9%	< 1%
26	Aston Villa	53.1	+6	< 1%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.5%	< 1%
23	Wolves	49.2	-6	< 1%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Leeds	48.4	-10	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Burnley	46.5	-14	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Crystal Palace	44.1	-19	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Newcastle	40.4	-21	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Brighton	38.3	-16	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Fulham	32.8	-24	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	West Brom	26.1	-51	95.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Sheffield United	26.0	-33	95.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	58%	21%	21%	Newcastle
Man City	82%	12%	6%	Sheffield United
West Brom	45%	24%	31%	Fulham
Crystal Palace	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Arsenal	40%	24%	35%	Man United
Southampton	54%	22%	24%	Aston Villa
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	Burnley
Leicester	62%	20%	18%	Leeds
West Ham	24%	22%	53%	Liverpool
Brighton	29%	24%	47%	Tottenham