PL: more than 75% probability that Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom will be relegated.

There is a more than 75% probability that Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom will be relegated. 

 

Confidence (50%) Intervals

Simulated points for winner: 79 - 84
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
44	Man City	80.6	+43	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.89%	99.61%	74%
40	Liverpool	74.7	+38	< 1%	99.82%	99.51%	98.7%	96.5%	19%
41	Man United	71.2	+21	< 1%	98.4%	96.5%	93%	85%	6%
39	Leicester	64.9	+16	< 1%	85%	76%	62%	43%	< 1%
33	Tottenham	62.7	+21	< 1%	75%	63%	47%	29%	< 1%
33	Chelsea	60.7	+19	< 1%	62%	48%	32%	17%	< 1%
35	West Ham	58.9	+4	< 1%	44%	30%	18%	8%	< 1%
33	Everton	58.6	+3	< 1%	42%	29%	17%	8%	< 1%
31	Arsenal	57.9	+12	< 1%	40%	26%	15%	7%	< 1%
32	Aston Villa	57.1	+11	< 1%	34%	23%	13%	6%	< 1%
29	Southampton	53.4	+1	< 1%	12%	7%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%
29	Leeds	51.3	-6	< 1%	6%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Wolves	46.2	-10	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	46.1	-17	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Burnley	46.0	-15	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	41.3	-20	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Brighton	40.1	-14	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Fulham	30.5	-27	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Sheffield United	26.2	-31	96.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	West Brom	25.8	-50	97.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	40%	24%	35%	Arsenal
Sheffield United	56%	22%	22%	West Brom
Man United	63%	20%	17%	Southampton
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Burnley	22%	22%	57%	Man City
Fulham	28%	23%	49%	Leicester
Leeds	42%	24%	33%	Everton
Aston Villa	46%	24%	31%	West Ham
Liverpool	77%	14%	9%	Brighton
Tottenham	48%	24%	29%	Chelsea