CL: Matchweek 1 - Sweet Sixteen

 

Updated probabilities after 1st week

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Bayern	87%	65%	47%	31%
Man City	77%	49%	30%	16%
Liverpool	94%	56%	31%	16%
Atletico	65%	36%	19%	9%
Paris SG	97%	41%	16%	6%
Real Madrid	62%	30%	13%	6%
Dortmund	85%	32%	11%	4%
Juventus	47%	21%	8%	3%
Chelsea	35%	14%	5%	2%
Porto	53%	18%	6%	2%
Atalanta	38%	14%	5%	2%
Gladbach	23%	9%	3%	1%
Sevilla	15%	6%	2%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	6%	3%	1%	< 1%
Lazio	13%	4%	1%	< 1%
Barcelona	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Estimated chances given different results in 1st leg

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
26%	Atletico	1	-	2	Chelsea	74%	5%
34%	Atletico	0	-	1	Chelsea	66%	5%
43%	Atletico	2	-	2	Chelsea	57%	5%
52%	Atletico	1	-	1	Chelsea	48%	10%
60%	Atletico	0	-	0	Chelsea	40%	4%
70%	Atletico	2	-	1	Chelsea	30%	10%
78%	Atletico	1	-	0	Chelsea	22%	9%
85%	Atletico	3	-	1	Chelsea	15%	7%
90%	Atletico	2	-	0	Chelsea	10%	9%
96%	Atletico	3	-	0	Chelsea	4%	6%

 

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
< 1%	Lazio	0	-	3	Bayern	100%	6%
1%	Lazio	1	-	3	Bayern	99%	7%
2%	Lazio	0	-	2	Bayern	98%	9%
5%	Lazio	1	-	2	Bayern	95%	10%
7%	Lazio	0	-	1	Bayern	93%	9%
11%	Lazio	2	-	2	Bayern	89%	6%
16%	Lazio	1	-	1	Bayern	84%	10%
21%	Lazio	0	-	0	Bayern	79%	4%
31%	Lazio	2	-	1	Bayern	69%	6%
39%	Lazio	1	-	0	Bayern	61%	5%