PL: City title winner with >97% probability

 

 

 Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
53	Man City	84.4	+50	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	97.1%
46	Man United	70.0	+27	< 1%	98.5%	96.0%	91%	81%	1.5%
40	Liverpool	69.1	+29	< 1%	98.1%	95.3%	89%	78%	< 1%
46	Leicester	67.7	+20	< 1%	95.3%	89%	79%	63%	< 1%
42	Chelsea	64.7	+21	< 1%	87%	76%	59%	38%	< 1%
42	West Ham	61.1	+8	< 1%	60%	42%	25%	13%	< 1%
36	Tottenham	61.0	+18	< 1%	63%	46%	29%	15%	< 1%
37	Everton	58.5	+3	< 1%	38%	23%	12%	5%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	56.8	+10	< 1%	29%	17%	9%	3.8%	< 1%
34	Arsenal	56.2	+11	< 1%	24%	13%	6%	2.3%	< 1%
32	Leeds	50.3	-6	< 1%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Southampton	49.6	-10	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Wolves	49.3	-7	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Burnley	46.2	-13	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	45.3	-20	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brighton	42.2	-10	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Newcastle	40.6	-22	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Fulham	31.5	-25	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Sheffield United	25.5	-33	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Brom	24.7	-49	99.37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Burnley	61%	20%	18%	Fulham
Everton	25%	23%	52%	Man City
Wolves	54%	22%	24%	Leeds
Southampton	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea
Burnley	66%	19%	15%	West Brom
Liverpool	70%	17%	13%	Everton
Fulham	47%	24%	30%	Sheffield United
West Ham	41%	24%	35%	Tottenham
Aston Villa	40%	24%	36%	Leicester
Arsenal	31%	24%	45%	Man City
Man United	71%	17%	12%	Newcastle