PL: United won the Manchester derby

United won the Manchester derby, but City remain big (99.6%) title favourites. Leicester and Chelsea are favourites to take the remaining CL tickets, challenged by West Ham and Tottenham. In the bottom, Fulham, Brighton and Newcastle are fighting about two slots in next season of PL.

 

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
65	Man City	87.2	+51	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.61%
54	Man United	72.6	+31	< 1%	99.78%	99.17%	97.6%	94%	< 1%
53	Leicester	68.5	+19	< 1%	97.5%	93%	84%	69%	< 1%
50	Chelsea	67.5	+25	< 1%	96.1%	90%	80%	64%	< 1%
48	West Ham	64.0	+12	< 1%	78%	62%	44%	26%	< 1%
45	Tottenham	62.7	+22	< 1%	72%	55%	37%	20%	< 1%
46	Everton	61.9	+5	< 1%	59%	40%	24%	11%	< 1%
43	Liverpool	61.8	+19	< 1%	66%	46%	27%	12%	< 1%
38	Arsenal	56.7	+13	< 1%	19%	10%	4.3%	1.5%	< 1%
40	Aston Villa	55.1	+8	< 1%	11%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Wolves	50.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Leeds	48.3	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Southampton	47.2	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Crystal Palace	45.1	-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Burnley	42.2	-19	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Newcastle	39.0	-23	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Brighton	37.6	-14	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Fulham	35.7	-18	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	West Brom	25.7	-47	99.54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	23.6	-36	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man City	80%	12%	7%	Southampton
Newcastle	42%	24%	34%	Aston Villa
Leeds	31%	24%	45%	Chelsea
Crystal Palace	61%	20%	18%	West Brom
Everton	55%	22%	23%	Burnley
Fulham	13%	18%	69%	Man City
Southampton	52%	23%	25%	Brighton
Leicester	69%	18%	13%	Sheffield United
Arsenal	49%	23%	28%	Tottenham
Man United	62%	20%	18%	West Ham
Wolves	33%	24%	43%	Liverpool