CL: Quarterfinals - Matchday 1

Below are the predictions based on a million simulations.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	81%	47%	30%
Bayern	73%	39%	25%
Real Madrid	79%	46%	19%
Chelsea	66%	31%	12%
Liverpool	21%	12%	5%
Paris SG	27%	9%	4%
Porto	34%	11%	3%
Dortmund	19%	5%	2%

 

 Below are the estimated probabilities given different result in the 1st leg today

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
31%	Bayern	1	-	2	Paris SG	69%	4%
49%	Bayern	2	-	2	Paris SG	51%	5%
58%	Bayern	1	-	1	Paris SG	42%	9%
75%	Bayern	2	-	1	Paris SG	25%	10%
82%	Bayern	1	-	0	Paris SG	18%	9%
89%	Bayern	3	-	1	Paris SG	11%	7%
93%	Bayern	2	-	0	Paris SG	7%	10%
96%	Bayern	4	-	1	Paris SG	4%	4%
98%	Bayern	3	-	0	Paris SG	2%	7%
99%	Bayern	4	-	0	Paris SG	< 1%	4%

 

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
6%	Porto	0	-	2	Chelsea	94%	5%
12%	Porto	1	-	2	Chelsea	88%	8%
17%	Porto	0	-	1	Chelsea	83%	7%
23%	Porto	2	-	2	Chelsea	77%	6%
31%	Porto	1	-	1	Chelsea	69%	11%
38%	Porto	0	-	0	Chelsea	62%	5%
49%	Porto	2	-	1	Chelsea	51%	8%
59%	Porto	1	-	0	Chelsea	41%	8%
69%	Porto	3	-	1	Chelsea	31%	4%
77%	Porto	2	-	0	Chelsea	23%	6%