PL: Tottenham the hottest team in August

 

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 9 points in the first 3 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Everton: 7 points in the first 3 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Chelsea: 7 points in the first 3 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 0 points in the first 3 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the first 3 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Newcastle: 1 points in the first 3 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 79 - 85
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
6	Man City	78.0	+49	< 1%	99.67%	99.12%	97.7%	94%	47%	1.4%	3.5%	94%
7	Liverpool	73.1	+34	< 1%	98.0%	95.7%	91%	81%	18%	4.9%	10%	81%
7	Chelsea	73.0	+34	< 1%	97.9%	95.5%	90%	80%	18%	5%	11%	81%
7	Man United	71.4	+31	< 1%	96.8%	93%	86%	73%	13%	7%	13%	74%
9	Tottenham	64.9	+15	< 1%	83%	73%	57%	36%	2.7%	10%	41%	34%
7	West Ham	60.1	+12	< 1%	64%	49%	31%	16%	< 1%	17%	19%	23%
6	Leicester	55.8	+1	< 1%	39%	25%	14%	6%	< 1%	12%	13%	11%
0	Arsenal	55.8	+3	< 1%	40%	26%	14%	6%	< 1%	13%	13%	6%
7	Everton	55.0	+3	< 1%	35%	22%	12%	5%	< 1%	12%	11%	4.7%
2	Leeds	50.0	-5	4.7%	15%	8%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%	5%	6%	1.1%
6	Brighton	48.6	-9	6%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	5%	< 1%
4	Aston Villa	47.3	-8	9%	8%	4.1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	4.6%	< 1%
5	Brentford	43.4	-16	20%	2.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	3.0%	< 1%
0	Wolves	42.7	-13	23%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%
2	Southampton	41.8	-17	27%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
2	Crystal Palace	40.5	-20	34%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
1	Newcastle	40.5	-20	34%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
1	Burnley	39.9	-19	36%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
3	Watford	39.8	-22	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
0	Norwich	34.6	-33	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%