CL: Matchweek 2

 Bayern almost clinch a R16 spot. Barcelona in trouble after two losses and will need good results against Dynamo.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Bayern	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	1%	7%	91%	99%
2	4	Benfica	8.1	(7-10)	10%	33%	49%	7%	56%
2	1	Dynamo Kyiv	3.9	(2-5)	72%	20%	8%	< 1%	8%
2	0	Barcelona	7.2	(6-9)	17%	45%	36%	2%	38%

Man United and Atalanta favorites.

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Atalanta	9.6	(8-11)	9%	22%	32%	37%	69%
2	3	Young Boys	6.7	(5-9)	46%	29%	18%	7%	25%
2	3	Man United	10.1	(8-12)	7%	17%	30%	46%	76%
2	1	Villarreal	6.8	(5-8)	38%	32%	20%	9%	30%

Group G is a very open group but Salzburg are in a good position with strong Sevilla.

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Salzburg	9.3	(8-11)	10%	22%	29%	40%	68%
2	2	Sevilla	8.9	(7-11)	12%	20%	33%	35%	68%
2	2	Wolfsburg	7.6	(6-9)	22%	33%	26%	19%	46%
2	1	Lille	5.4	(4-7)	57%	25%	12%	6%	18%

Juventus in a lead position after a 1-0 win home against Chelsea. Zenit took a must-win against Malmoe.

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Juventus	13.1	(12-15)	< 1%	7%	31%	62%	93%
2	3	Chelsea	11.6	(10-13)	1%	10%	55%	34%	89%
2	3	Zenit	6.9	(5-9)	10%	74%	12%	4%	16%
2	0	Malmoe	2.9	(1-4)	88%	10%	1%	< 1%	1%