World Cup: European Qualifiers

In Europe the ten group winners are directly qualified. The ten runner-ups together with the two best teams from Nations League play a knockout playoff to determine three more teams.

The most important matches this week are in group G, H and B. In Group G, Netherlands play both Turkey and Norway. Turkey have 72% if they win or draw against Netherlands and 37% otherwise, while Netherlands have 82% if they win and 52% otherwise. In Group H, we have a match between Russia and Croatia. Russia 61% if they win, 28% otherwise. Croatia have 85% if they win and 55% otherwise. In Group B, Sweden are hosting Spain and have 66% if they win and 36% otherwise.

Team	Group	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	F	2%	98%	2%	1%	< 1%	99%
France	D	3%	96%	4%	3%	2%	98%
Belgium	E	9%	90%	10%	8%	6%	97%
England	I	8%	90%	8%	6%	4%	94%
Portugal	A	14%	85%	14%	11%	8%	93%
Germany	J	11%	86%	11%	7%	4%	90%
Spain	B	23%	75%	25%	18%	14%	89%
Italy	C	24%	76%	24%	18%	13%	89%
Netherlands	G	32%	57%	32%	22%	15%	72%
Croatia	H	27%	58%	27%	15%	8%	66%
Switzerland	C	75%	24%	75%	47%	28%	52%
Turkey	G	48%	36%	48%	26%	13%	49%
Sweden	B	66%	24%	66%	38%	20%	44%
Russia	H	41%	32%	41%	19%	8%	40%
Wales	E	60%	9%	91%	53%	29%	37%
Serbia	A	83%	14%	83%	43%	20%	35%
Czechia	E	30%	1%	98%	47%	20%	21%
Austria	F	58%	1%	99%	46%	20%	21%
Poland	I	54%	6%	54%	28%	13%	19%
Hungary	I	33%	4%	69%	31%	13%	17%
Ukraine	D	52%	2%	52%	28%	14%	16%
Norway	G	19%	7%	19%	9%	4%	11%
Armenia	J	31%	6%	31%	8%	2%	8%
Slovakia	H	17%	6%	17%	6%	2%	8%
North Macedonia	J	32%	5%	32%	9%	2%	8%
Finland	D	27%	2%	27%	11%	4%	6%
Slovenia	H	13%	3%	31%	9%	2%	6%
Scotland	F	29%	< 1%	29%	10%	3%	4%
Romania	J	17%	2%	17%	5%	2%	3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	17%	< 1%	17%	5%	2%	2%
Greece	B	9%	< 1%	9%	3%	< 1%	2%
Iceland	J	10%	< 1%	10%	3%	< 1%	2%
Israel	F	12%	< 1%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Montenegro	G	1%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	I	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	A	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Northern Ireland	C	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	B	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	E	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	A	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	B	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	A	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	D	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	3	7	20	(19-22)	14%	85%	14%	11%	8%	93%
Serbia	3	7	16.8	(15-19)	83%	14%	83%	43%	20%	35%
Ireland	2	0	7.85	(6-10)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	2	3	7.72	(6-9)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	2	0	4.48	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Spain	3	7	18.7	(17-20)	23%	75%	25%	18%	14%	89%
Sweden	2	6	15.9	(14-18)	66%	24%	66%	38%	20%	44%
Greece	2	2	9.34	(7-11)	9%	< 1%	9%	3%	< 1%	2%
Georgia	3	1	6.13	(4-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	2	0	5.36	(3-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	3	9	20.6	(19-22)	24%	76%	24%	18%	13%	89%
Switzerland	2	6	17.8	(16-19)	75%	24%	75%	47%	28%	52%
Northern Ireland	2	1	7.8	(6-10)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	3	1	6.54	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	2	0	3.9	(2-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	3	7	19.4	(18-22)	3%	96%	4%	3%	2%	98%
Ukraine	3	3	11.6	(10-13)	52%	2%	52%	28%	14%	16%
Finland	2	2	10.3	(9-12)	27%	2%	27%	11%	4%	6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	1	8.74	(7-11)	17%	< 1%	17%	5%	2%	2%
Kazakhstan	2	1	3.63	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	3	7	19.9	(19-22)	9%	90%	10%	8%	6%	97%
Wales	2	3	15.1	(13-17)	60%	9%	91%	53%	29%	37%
Czechia	3	4	12.8	(11-14)	30%	1%	98%	47%	20%	21%
Belarus	2	3	7.1	(5-9)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	2	0	2.17	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	3	9	27	(25-28)	2%	98%	2%	1%	< 1%	99%
Austria	3	4	18.2	(16-20)	58%	1%	99%	46%	20%	21%
Scotland	3	5	16.3	(15-18)	29%	< 1%	29%	10%	3%	4%
Israel	3	4	14.2	(12-16)	12%	< 1%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	3	1	5.04	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	3	1	3.32	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	3	6	23	(21-25)	32%	57%	32%	22%	15%	72%
Turkey	3	7	22.3	(20-24)	48%	36%	48%	26%	13%	49%
Norway	3	6	18.9	(17-21)	19%	7%	19%	9%	4%	11%
Montenegro	3	6	13.3	(12-15)	1%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	3	1	6.32	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	3	0	2.46	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	3	6	20.7	(19-23)	27%	58%	27%	15%	8%	66%
Russia	3	6	19.2	(17-21)	41%	32%	41%	19%	8%	40%
Slovakia	3	5	15.4	(13-18)	17%	6%	17%	6%	2%	8%
Slovenia	3	3	14.6	(13-16)	13%	3%	31%	9%	2%	6%
Cyprus	3	4	9.78	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	3	1	4.61	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	3	9	26.3	(25-28)	8%	90%	8%	6%	4%	94%
Poland	3	4	20.1	(18-22)	54%	6%	54%	28%	13%	19%
Hungary	3	7	19.3	(17-21)	33%	4%	69%	31%	13%	17%
Albania	3	6	14.9	(13-16)	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	3	0	4.36	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	3	0	1.75	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	3	6	23.2	(22-25)	11%	86%	11%	7%	4%	90%
Armenia	3	9	17.1	(15-19)	31%	6%	31%	8%	2%	8%
North Macedonia	3	6	16.4	(14-19)	32%	5%	32%	9%	2%	8%
Romania	3	3	14.9	(13-17)	17%	2%	17%	5%	2%	3%
Iceland	3	3	13.6	(11-16)	10%	< 1%	10%	3%	< 1%	2%
Liechtenstein	3	0	1.23	(0-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	3%	96%	4%	3%	2%	98%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	9%	90%	10%	8%	6%	97%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	24%	76%	24%	18%	13%	89%
4	Spain	B	1%	23%	75%	25%	18%	14%	89%
5	Wales	E	32%	60%	9%	91%	53%	29%	37%
6	Austria	F	41%	58%	1%	99%	46%	20%	21%
7	Czechia	E	68%	30%	1%	98%	47%	20%	21%
8	Hungary	I	36%	33%	4%	69%	31%	13%	17%
9	Slovenia	H	18%	13%	3%	31%	9%	2%	6%
10	Montenegro	G	3%	1%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	31%	6%	31%	8%	2%	8%