PL: United thrashed by Liverpool

United thrashed by Liverpool

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
41.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
10.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
9.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
7.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
7.2%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
20	Man City	81.1	+51	< 1%	99.97%	99.91%	99.68%	98.8%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.01%
21	Liverpool	78.4	+50	< 1%	99.89%	99.68%	99.04%	97.0%	30%	< 1%	1.7%	97.4%
22	Chelsea	76.7	+44	< 1%	99.76%	99.34%	98.2%	95%	20%	1.2%	3.0%	95.3%
14	Man United	66.7	+22	< 1%	93%	87%	76%	57%	1.4%	10%	19%	60%
14	Arsenal	59.9	+6	< 1%	68%	53%	35%	16%	< 1%	18%	24%	16%
14	West Ham	59.5	+11	< 1%	67%	52%	34%	16%	< 1%	16%	20%	27%
15	Tottenham	58.7	+1	< 1%	60%	45%	28%	12%	< 1%	13%	38%	12%
14	Everton	53.4	-1	< 1%	30%	19%	9%	3.1%	< 1%	10%	11%	3.1%
14	Leicester	53.0	-2	< 1%	28%	17%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	9%	14%	6%
15	Brighton	50.7	-8	2.0%	17%	9%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	6%	7%	1.2%
10	Aston Villa	49.2	-4	3.4%	13%	7%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	6%	< 1%
13	Wolves	47.8	-10	4.9%	9%	4.4%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.8%	< 1%
7	Leeds	45.8	-12	9%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	4.7%	< 1%
12	Brentford	45.7	-10	9%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	3.5%	< 1%
9	Crystal Palace	42.6	-14	19%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
8	Southampton	41.2	-16	25%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
10	Watford	40.0	-23	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
4	Newcastle	36.6	-22	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
4	Burnley	36.2	-21	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
2	Norwich	28.9	-44	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	40%	24%	36%	Arsenal
Liverpool	73%	16%	11%	Brighton
Newcastle	24%	23%	53%	Chelsea
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Crystal Palace
Burnley	47%	24%	29%	Brentford
Watford	46%	24%	30%	Southampton
Tottenham	37%	24%	39%	Man United
Norwich	34%	24%	42%	Leeds
Aston Villa	41%	24%	34%	West Ham
Wolves	42%	24%	34%	Everton

 

ECL: Tottenham and Roma are still favorites despite disappointing results yesterday.

Tottenham and Roma are still favorites despite disappointing results yesterday.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Tottenham	35%	48%	82%	75%	59%	45%	33%	21%
C	Roma	27%	70%	97.0%	89%	65%	45%	29%	17%
E	Feyenoord	25%	64%	89%	79%	46%	25%	12%	6%
	PSV			63%	44%	28%	17%	10%	5.0%
	Napoli			20%	16%	13%	10%	7%	4.7%
D	Alkmaar	9%	90%	98.2%	94%	50%	24%	10%	4.2%
	Leicester			26%	20%	14%	10%	7%	3.8%
G	Rennes	43%	43%	86%	67%	35%	18%	8%	3.5%
E	Slavia Praha	32%	16%	48%	36%	22%	13%	7%	3.4%
E	Union Berlin	31%	16%	46%	35%	22%	13%	7%	3.3%
B	Partizan	70%	28%	98.2%	66%	35%	17%	8%	3.2%
	Sociedad			19%	15%	11%	8%	4.9%	2.9%
	Lazio			27%	20%	14%	9%	5%	2.7%
F	FC Kobenhavn	55%	38%	92%	65%	32%	14%	6%	2.3%
H	Basel	35%	62%	97.8%	78%	35%	14%	4.8%	1.7%
	Marseille			41%	26%	15%	8%	3.8%	1.7%
F	PAOK	33%	60%	92%	74%	31%	12%	4.0%	1.4%
B	Gent	28%	72%	99.93%	84%	34%	12%	3.9%	1.3%
	Rangers			43%	25%	13%	6%	2.5%	1.0%
	Dinamo Zagreb			26%	17%	9%	4.9%	2.3%	1.0%
	Monaco			12%	9%	5%	3.3%	1.8%	< 1%
A	LASK	55%	44%	98.9%	66%	26%	9%	2.9%	< 1%
A	M Tel Aviv	43%	56%	98.7%	72%	27%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
C	Bodoe Glimt	56%	28%	85%	51%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			55%	28%	12%	5.0%	1.8%	< 1%
	Betis			3.5%	2.7%	1.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sparta Praha			35%	18%	8%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%
	Genk			44%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%
	Frankfurt			3.4%	2.5%	1.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			4.1%	2.9%	1.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	59%	37%	95.8%	57%	18%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Celtic			71%	30%	10%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Antwerp			47%	21%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Fenerbahce			46%	20%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lok Moskva			17%	9%	3.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Leverkusen			1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Braga			8%	4.6%	2.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Vitesse	23%	9%	32%	17%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Legia			37%	16%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rapid Wien			29%	13%	4.9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda			6%	3.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			24%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Galatasaray			14%	7%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Razgrad			31%	13%	4.4%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Spartak Moskva			18%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	CFR Cluj	17%	1.5%	18%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz			5%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Maccabi Haifa	12%	4.4%	16%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brondby			22%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Zorya	12%	1.7%	14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Jablonec	39%	4.9%	44%	16%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Lyon			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Randers	35%	4.0%	39%	13%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	West Ham			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	CSKA Sofia	4.3%	< 1%	4.6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Slovan Bratislava	13%	2.9%	16%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Omonia	4.0%	< 1%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Anorthosis	1.8%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	HJK Helsinki	2.0%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Lincoln	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Flora Tallinn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Mura	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Alashkert	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Kairat	2.0%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

EL: West Ham and Napoli favorites

West Ham and Napoli still favorites, although Napoli have difficulties at the group stage with only four points after three matches.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
H	West Ham	2.0%	97.9%	99.89%	99.11%	64%	40%	24%	13%
C	Napoli	24%	50%	74%	64%	41%	25%	14%	7%
	Barcelona			45%	35%	25%	17%	11%	6%
G	Leverkusen	35%	64%	98.8%	83%	47%	25%	13%	6%
	Atletico			36%	29%	21%	14%	9%	6%
A	Lyon	2.5%	97.3%	99.75%	98.5%	50%	24%	11%	4.7%
B	Sociedad	44%	35%	79%	59%	34%	17%	8%	3.8%
G	Betis	60%	36%	96.4%	66%	35%	17%	8%	3.4%
D	Frankfurt	40%	56%	96.3%	76%	38%	18%	8%	3.4%
	Inter			19%	15%	11%	8%	5%	3.2%
C	Leicester	40%	30%	70%	50%	28%	14%	7%	3.2%
	Porto			45%	32%	19%	11%	6%	3.0%
	Atalanta			29%	22%	15%	9%	5%	2.9%
	Villarreal			38%	27%	17%	10%	6%	2.8%
	Man United			12%	10%	8%	6%	4.2%	2.7%
	Sevilla			24%	18%	13%	8%	4.8%	2.7%
D	Olympiakos	53%	42%	95.6%	67%	32%	14%	6%	2.3%
	Benfica			36%	25%	15%	8%	4.4%	2.2%
	Wolfsburg			39%	26%	15%	8%	4.0%	1.9%
E	Lazio	38%	29%	67%	47%	24%	11%	4.4%	1.9%
B	Monaco	32%	55%	87%	69%	30%	12%	4.7%	1.8%
	RB Leipzig			28%	19%	11%	6%	3.2%	1.5%
	Sporting			85%	49%	22%	9%	3.7%	1.5%
	Milan			18%	13%	8%	4.8%	2.7%	1.4%
	Dortmund			10%	8%	5%	3.5%	2.1%	1.2%
	Chelsea			4.9%	4.2%	3.4%	2.5%	1.8%	1.2%
	Real Madrid			4.6%	3.9%	3.1%	2.3%	1.7%	1.1%
	Zenit			85%	46%	20%	8%	2.9%	1.1%
	Paris SG			4.4%	3.7%	2.9%	2.1%	1.5%	< 1%
	Man City			2.1%	1.9%	1.6%	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%
	Lille			27%	16%	8%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%
B	PSV	23%	9%	33%	19%	9%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%
F	Crvena Zvezda	36%	57%	93%	68%	22%	6%	1.6%	< 1%
	Salzburg			9%	6%	3.6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Braga	51%	40%	91%	56%	19%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
	Young Boys			20%	12%	6%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%
E	Marseille	26%	18%	44%	27%	10%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%
H	Dinamo Zagreb	58%	1.5%	60%	23%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brugge			65%	30%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			19%	9%	3.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Liverpool			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Galatasaray	32%	51%	83%	58%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Juventus			1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	40%	1.0%	41%	14%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ajax			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			9%	4.8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Sparta Praha	49%	1.7%	51%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bayern			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Legia	29%	18%	48%	24%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Genk	24%	< 1%	24%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	9%	2.2%	11%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			67%	17%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Malmoe			9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Lok Moskva	4.9%	1.6%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Rapid Wien	16%	< 1%	16%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Spartak Moskva	7%	2.1%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Fenerbahce	3.5%	< 1%	4.1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Razgrad	3.7%	< 1%	4.4%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Besiktas			4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Antwerp	3.5%	< 1%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brondby	8%	< 1%	9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Celtic	3.8%	< 1%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sturm Graz	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ferencvaros	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Updated probabilities after matchweek 3

Updated probabilities after matchweek 3

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Bayern	< 1%	1.1%	98.8%	99.91%	73%	51%	34%	21%
A	Man City	2.1%	42%	56%	97.8%	71%	47%	30%	18%
B	Liverpool	< 1%	4.5%	95.0%	99.49%	70%	42%	24%	13%
H	Chelsea	5.0%	66%	29%	95%	56%	31%	16%	8%
D	Real Madrid	4.6%	18%	77%	95%	56%	30%	15%	7%
A	Paris SG	4.4%	51%	44%	95.1%	54%	29%	14%	7%
F	Man United	12%	26%	58%	84%	51%	26%	13%	6%
D	Inter	19%	58%	18%	77%	36%	17%	8%	3.4%
C	Ajax	< 1%	17%	82%	99.12%	49%	21%	8%	3.2%
C	Dortmund	10%	72%	17%	90%	39%	16%	6%	2.5%
H	Juventus	1.1%	28%	71%	98.9%	46%	18%	6%	2.4%
B	Atletico	36%	52%	3.4%	55%	25%	12%	4.9%	2.1%
G	Sevilla	24%	41%	24%	65%	26%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
E	Barcelona	45%	43%	< 1%	43%	19%	8%	3.4%	1.4%
F	Atalanta	29%	34%	23%	57%	23%	9%	3.1%	1.1%
G	Salzburg	9%	24%	66%	90%	32%	10%	2.7%	< 1%
F	Villarreal	38%	30%	16%	47%	17%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
E	Benfica	36%	51%	< 1%	51%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
B	Porto	45%	37%	1.5%	39%	13%	4.5%	1.4%	< 1%
G	Wolfsburg	39%	23%	7%	30%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Milan	18%	6%	< 1%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Lille	27%	12%	3.0%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Young Boys	20%	10%	2.9%	13%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sporting	85%	10%	< 1%	11%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RB Leipzig	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zenit	85%	5%	< 1%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dynamo Kyiv	19%	6%	< 1%	6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Shakhtar	9%	4.1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brugge	65%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sheriff Tiraspol	67%	19%	4.6%	24%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malmoe	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Besiktas	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	7	Paris SG	11.8	(10-13)	< 1%	4%	51%	44%	95%
3	6	Man City	12.3	(11-13)	< 1%	2%	42%	56%	98%
3	4	Brugge	5.9	(4-7)	28%	65%	6%	< 1%	6%
3	0	RB Leipzig	3.8	(2-6)	71%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Liverpool	14.7	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	4%	95%	99%
3	4	Atletico	8	(7-10)	9%	36%	52%	3%	55%
3	4	Porto	7.1	(5-8)	16%	45%	37%	2%	39%
3	0	Milan	3.8	(2-6)	76%	18%	6%	< 1%	6%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Ajax	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	17%	82%	99%
3	6	Dortmund	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	10%	72%	17%	90%
3	3	Sporting	7.1	(6-9)	4%	85%	10%	< 1%	11%
3	0	Besiktas	1.8	(0-3)	96%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	6	Sheriff Tiraspol	7.6	(6-9)	9%	67%	19%	5%	24%
3	6	Real Madrid	12.6	(12-15)	< 1%	5%	18%	77%	95%
3	4	Inter	9.5	(8-11)	4%	19%	59%	18%	77%
3	1	Shakhtar	4.2	(4-5)	86%	9%	4%	< 1%	4%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Bayern	15.7	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	1%	99%	100%
3	4	Benfica	7.4	(6-8)	12%	36%	50%	< 1%	51%
3	3	Barcelona	7.3	(6-9)	12%	45%	43%	< 1%	43%
3	1	Dynamo Kyiv	3.4	(2-5)	76%	19%	6%	< 1%	6%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	6	Man United	11	(9-13)	4%	12%	26%	58%	84%
3	4	Atalanta	8.6	(7-10)	14%	29%	34%	23%	57%
3	4	Villarreal	8.3	(7-10)	15%	38%	30%	16%	47%
3	3	Young Boys	5.7	(4-7)	67%	20%	10%	3%	13%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	7	Salzburg	10.8	(9-13)	< 1%	9%	24%	66%	90%
3	3	Sevilla	8.2	(7-10)	10%	24%	41%	24%	65%
3	2	Lille	5.1	(3-6)	57%	27%	12%	3%	15%
3	2	Wolfsburg	6.4	(5-8)	31%	39%	23%	7%	30%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Juventus	14.4	(13-15)	< 1%	1%	28%	71%	99%
3	6	Chelsea	12	(10-13)	< 1%	5%	66%	29%	95%
3	3	Zenit	6.1	(4-7)	9%	85%	5%	< 1%	6%
3	0	Malmoe	2.3	(1-3)	91%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%