CL: Matchday 5 - Wednesday

Dortmund qualified if they win against Sporting; otherwise 49%

Inter qualified if they win against Shakhtar and Real Madrid draw (or win) against Sheriff Tiraspol; otherwise 74%

Real Madrid qualified if they win against Sheriff Tiraspol; otherwise 88%

Sheriff Tiraspol qualified if Shakhtar win against Inter and they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 7.3%

Paris SG qualified if RB Leipzig win against Brugge or they win against Man City; otherwise 92%

Porto qualified if Milan win against Atletico and they win against Liverpool; otherwise 49%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Man City	12.8	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	26%	74%	100%
4	8	Paris SG	11.2	(11-12)	< 1%	4%	70%	26%	96%
4	4	Brugge	5.6	(4-7)	33%	63%	4%	< 1%	4%
4	1	RB Leipzig	3.5	(2-5)	67%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Liverpool	15.9	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	5	Porto	7.1	(6-8)	2%	47%	51%	< 1%	51%
4	4	Atletico	7.2	(6-8)	11%	43%	47%	< 1%	47%
4	1	Milan	3	(1-4)	87%	10%	2%	< 1%	2%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Ajax	16.3	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
4	6	Dortmund	9.9	(9-12)	< 1%	31%	69%	< 1%	69%
4	6	Sporting	8	(6-9)	< 1%	69%	31%	< 1%	31%
4	0	Besiktas	1	(0-2)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	Real Madrid	13.3	(12-15)	< 1%	3%	16%	80%	97%
4	7	Inter	10.1	(10-11)	< 1%	9%	72%	18%	90%
4	6	Sheriff Tiraspol	7	(6-7)	8%	84%	7%	1%	8%
4	1	Shakhtar	3.8	(3-4)	92%	4%	5%	< 1%	5%