CL: Who finish second in Group B?

Atletico clinch second spot if they win away against Porto clinch second spot if they win (at home) against Liverpool while Porto and Atletico draw. Porto take the second spot in all other outcomes.

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Liverpool	16.7	(15-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	5	Porto	6.5	(5-8)	10%	31%	59%	< 1%	59%
5	4	Atletico	5.3	(4-7)	29%	37%	34%	< 1%	34%
5	4	Milan	5.1	(4-7)	61%	32%	7%	< 1%	7%

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	80%	55%	35%	21%
E	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	77%	52%	34%	20%
B	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	76%	49%	30%	17%
H	Chelsea	< 1%	35%	65%	100%	66%	37%	20%	10%
D	Real Madrid	< 1%	22%	78%	100%	64%	34%	17%	8%
A	Paris SG	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	47%	24%	11%	4.9%
F	Man United	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	61%	28%	12%	4.9%
C	Ajax	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	57%	25%	10%	4.1%
D	Inter	< 1%	78%	22%	100%	44%	19%	8%	3.0%
H	Juventus	< 1%	65%	35%	100%	41%	15%	5%	1.8%
B	Atletico	37%	34%	< 1%	34%	15%	7%	2.6%	1.1%
E	Barcelona	52%	48%	< 1%	48%	19%	8%	2.8%	1.0%
B	Porto	31%	59%	< 1%	59%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	35%	16%	16%	32%	13%	5%	1.8%	< 1%
G	Salzburg	16%	36%	32%	68%	24%	8%	2.1%	< 1%
F	Atalanta	47%	50%	< 1%	50%	15%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
F	Villarreal	50%	50%	< 1%	50%	15%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
E	Benfica	48%	52%	< 1%	52%	15%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%
C	Sporting	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	22%	5%	1.1%	< 1%
G	Lille	49%	10%	41%	51%	16%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Wolfsburg	< 1%	37%	12%	49%	11%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Milan	32%	7%	< 1%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sheriff Tiraspol	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zenit	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Dortmund	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RB Leipzig	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Brugge	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Young Boys	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malmoe	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dynamo Kyiv	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Shakhtar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Besiktas	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%