World Cup: Europe

Switzerland and clinched ticket to Qatar; also England secured their spot mathematically.

Finland have two points adavantage over Ukraine and one goal better goal difference. Finland clinch playoff if either

• Ukraine do not win against Bosnia or
  
• Finland win against France
• Ukraine win with one goal, Finland draw and make as many goals as Ukraine
  

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	7	15	17.2	(16-18)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Finland	7	11	11.6	(11-12)	60%	< 1%	60%	15%	5%	5%
Ukraine	7	9	10.7	(9-12)	40%	< 1%	40%	14%	7%	7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7	7	8.11	(7-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	8	3	3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Both Wales and Czechia have secured a spot in the playoff, but Wales still have the chance to be seeded. If they win they are 100% seeded. If they draw they are likely to be seeded but depends on the outcome in Group G

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	7	19	20.9	(20-22)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Wales	7	14	14.9	(14-15)	54%	< 1%	100%	53%	26%	26%
Czechia	7	11	13.7	(14-14)	46%	< 1%	100%	31%	13%	13%
Estonia	7	4	4.23	(4-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	8	3	3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Holland win the group if they at least draw againt Norway. The go to playoff if they lose and Turkey don't win.

Turkey win the group if Norway beat Netherlands and Turkey beat Montenegro with equally many (or more) goals. Otherwise, they go to playoff if they at least draw and Norway don't win - or if they lose and Norway lose as much.

Norway win the group if they beat Netherlands and Turkey don't win. They go to playoff if they win and Turkey win - or if they draw and Turkey lose.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	9	20	22.3	(21-23)	5%	88%	5%	3%	2%	90%
Turkey	9	18	20	(19-21)	84%	7%	84%	39%	18%	25%
Norway	9	18	18.5	(18-19)	11%	5%	11%	4%	2%	7%
Montenegro	9	12	12.8	(12-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	9	6	7.64	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	9	0	1.12	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 Sweden are seeded if one of below happens

• Belgium at least draw against Wales or
  
• Turkey don't win with five goals or
  
• Norway win but with less than four goals
  

Poland are seeded if both

• Wales lose against Belgium and
• Turkey don't win against Montenegro
  

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
100%	Portugal	A	100%	17	17	17	11
100%	Scotland	F	100%	17	17	17	7
100%	Italy	C	100%	16	16	16	10
100%	Russia	H	100%	16	16	16	9
100%	Sweden	B	100%	15	15	15	6
54%	Wales	E	78%	15.6	14	17	5.3
5%	Netherlands	G	42%	14	14	14	8.6
84%	Turkey	G	36%	14.1	12	15	2
11%	Norway	G	35%	14.2	12	15	2.8
100%	Poland	I	20%	14	14	14	8
46%	Czechia	E	4%	14	14	14	6.2
100%	North Macedonia	J	< 1%	12	12	12	6
40%	Ukraine	D	< 1%	12	12	12	2.9
60%	Finland	D	< 1%	11.9	11	14	0.9

Seeded

Point	GD	Seeded(%)
15	8	100%
15	7	100%
15	6	99.53%
15	5	91%
15	4	56%
15	3	56%
15	2	56%
14	12	40%
14	11	42%
14	10	42%
14	9	48%
14	8	19%
14	7	< 1%
14	6	< 1%
14	5	< 1%
14	4	< 1%
14	3	< 1%
14	2	< 1%
14	1	< 1%
14	0	< 1%