World Cup: Serbia clinch ticket to Qatar with last-minute winner

Croatia, Serbia and Spain clinched a place in Qatar.

Tonight Group C will be decided between Italy and Switzerland and Scotland and Poland need good results to be seeded in the playoff

Most interesting matches tonight

Northern Ireland vs Italy in Group C

- Switzerland have 97.4% if Northern Ireland win; 91.3% if draw; 61.9% if Italy win.

- Italy have 86.8% if they win; 65.5% if draw; 61.3% if lose.

Switzerland vs Bulgaria in Group C

- Switzerland have 74.1% if they win; 49.4% if draw; 43.6% if lose.

- Italy have 99.6% if Bulgaria win; 95.9% if draw; 78% if Switzerland win.

Scotland vs Denmark in Group F

- Scotland have 15.4% if they win; 12% if draw; 6.1% if lose.

- Turkey have 25.3% if Denmark win; 22% otherwise.

Poland vs Hungary in Group I

- Poland have 23.5% if  they lose; 31.5% otherwise.

- Turkey have 26.8% if Hungary win; 23.2% otherwise.

 Italy have 13-2 in goal difference, two goals better than Switzerland's 11-2. Italy play North Ireland away, while Switzerland host Bulgaria. If Switzerland would win 3-0 and Italy with 1-0 so both finish on 14-2, then Switzerland win the group on more away goals in head-to-head.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Switzerland	7	15	17.6	(18-18)	53%	47%	53%	41%	23%	70%
Italy	7	15	17.4	(16-18)	47%	53%	47%	40%	28%	81%
Northern Ireland	7	8	8.46	(8-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	7	8	8.25	(8-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	8	3	3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Portugal, Russia, Italy/Switzerland have clinched seeded spot in the playoff, while North Macedonia and Finland/Ukraine cannot be seeded.

Scotland clinch seeded spot if they win (at home) against Denmark. A draw is more uncertain.

Poland are very likely to be seeded if they take a point (at home) against Hungary. With a win they clinch a seeded spot for sure.  

Sweden need two of the following to happen to be seeded

1. Poland lose against Hungary 
2. Scotland don't win against Denmark
3. Wales don't win against Belgium
4. Either Turkey don't win with 5 goals or more or Norway win with less than 4 goals
   

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
< 1%	England	I	100%	20	20	20	21
100%	Portugal	A	100%	17	17	17	11
100%	Russia	H	100%	16	16	16	9
47%	Italy	C	100%	16.8	15	18	10.6
53%	Switzerland	C	100%	17.4	15	18	10.4
100%	Sweden	B	96%	15	15	15	6
100%	Poland	I	89%	15.9	14	17	9.8
54%	Wales	E	76%	15.6	14	17	5.3
5%	Netherlands	G	41%	14	14	14	8.6
100%	Scotland	F	32%	14.8	14	17	4
84%	Turkey	G	30%	14.1	12	15	2
11%	Norway	G	28%	14.2	12	15	2.8
46%	Czechia	E	25%	14	14	14	6.2
60%	Finland	D	< 1%	11.9	11	14	0.9
100%	North Macedonia	J	< 1%	12	12	12	6
40%	Ukraine	D	< 1%	12	12	12	2.9

 

Table below shows how often a runner up is seeded given the combination of points and goal difference. At least 14 points will be needed but quite likely 15 points will be needed to be seeded.

Point	GD	Seeded(%)
15	9	>99.99%
15	8	99.95%
15	7	99.1%
15	6	96.3%
15	5	72%
15	4	45%
15	3	45%
15	2	45%
14	12	38%
14	11	36%
14	10	37%
14	9	40%
14	8	44%
14	7	34%
14	6	26%
14	5	22%
14	4	8%
14	3	1.6%
14	2	< 1%
14	1	< 1%
14	0	< 1%
14	-1	< 1%
14	-2	< 1%