Sunday, November 14, 2021

World Cup: Three deciding group finals tonight in Europe.

 Tonight we have three deciding group finals: Croatia vs Russia in Group H; Spain vs Sweden in Group B and Portugal vs Serbia in Group A.


Most interesting matches tonight
Croatia vs Russia in Group H
    - Russia have 24.5% if  they lose; 100% otherwise.
    - Croatia have 100% if they win; 36.4% if draw; 28.9% if lose.
Spain vs Sweden in Group B
    - Sweden have 100% if they win; 38.3% if draw; 36.4% if lose.
    - Spain have 64.2% if  they lose; 100% otherwise.
Portugal vs Serbia in Group A
    - Serbia have 100% if  they win; 32.3% otherwise.
    - Portugal have 63.4% if  they lose; 100% otherwise.
North Macedonia vs Iceland in Group J
    - Romania have 0% if North Macedonia win; 5.2% otherwise.
    - North Macedonia have 4.5% if  they win; 0.8% otherwise.
Liechtenstein vs Romania in Group J
    - Romania have 3.2% if  they win; 0% otherwise.
    - North Macedonia have 2.2% if Romania win; 4.5% otherwise.

 

 Portugal need to take a point at home against Serbia to win Group A

Group A
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stPlayoffPlayoff FinalPlayoff WinnerQatar
Portugal71719.4 (18-20)11%89%11%9%7%96%
Serbia71717.5 (17-18)89%11%89%61%29%40%
Luxembourg7910 (9-12)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Ireland767.77 (6-9)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Azerbaijan811 (1-1)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Spain need to take a point at home against Sweden to win Group B 

Group B
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stPlayoffPlayoff FinalPlayoff WinnerQatar
Spain71618.3 (17-19)13%87%13%11%8%95%
Sweden71515.6 (15-16)87%13%87%60%32%45%
Greece7911.2 (10-12)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Georgia877 (7-7)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Kosovo744.64 (4-5)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

Croatia need to win at home against Russia to win group H  

Group H
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stPlayoffPlayoff FinalPlayoff WinnerQatar
Russia92222.8 (22-23)60%40%60%37%15%55%
Croatia92022 (21-23)40%60%40%26%13%73%
Slovenia91113.4 (12-14)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Slovakia91113.4 (12-14)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Malta955.49 (5-6)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Cyprus955.46 (5-6)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

North Macedonia need to win against Iceland at home to clinch playoff place or hope that Liechtenstein take a point from Romania. 

Group J
CountryMPPtsSimulated Pts2nd1stPlayoffPlayoff FinalPlayoff WinnerQatar
Germany92426.2 (25-27)< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
North Macedonia91516.7 (15-18)58%< 1%58%10%3%3%
Romania91416.6 (17-17)42%< 1%42%9%3%3%
Armenia91212.6 (12-13)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Iceland9910.1 (9-12)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Liechtenstein911.3 (1-1)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

Below are the countries that still can finish 2nd, the average points in the simulations when they finish second, and min and max points.

 Runner-ups

2ndTeamGroupSeededPoints when 2ndMinMaxGD
11%PortugalA100%17171710.6
89%SerbiaA100%17.217185.9
< 1%EnglandI100%20202021
53%SwitzerlandC100%17.4151810.5
47%ItalyC100%16.8151810.6
13%SpainB100%1616167.6
60%RussiaH100%1616165.1
87%SwedenB90%15.215165.1
100%PolandI89%15.914179.8
54%WalesE80%15.614175.3
40%CroatiaH77%14.514159.7
5%NetherlandsG44%1414148.6
84%TurkeyG37%1412152
100%ScotlandF36%14.814174
11%NorwayG35%14.212152.8
46%CzechiaE27%1414146.2
60%FinlandD< 1%11.911140.9
40%UkraineD< 1%1212122.9
42%RomaniaJ< 1%1111111
58%North MacedoniaJ< 1%11.69125.5



Points are the probability to be seeded for each likely combination of points and goal difference for runner-ups. For example 15 points and +2 in goal difference is suffient for being seeded in 57% of the simulations.

Seeded

PointGDSeeded(%)
151299.4%

15999.2%

15899.1%

15798.7%

15696.6%

15587%

15474%

15363%

15257%

15168%

15068%

15-170%

141246%

141161%

141057%

14945%

14847%

14737%

14631%

14524%

1449%

1431.7%

142< 1%

141< 1%

140< 1%

14-1< 1%

14-2< 1%

 

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