World Cup: Everything went Turkey's way

 Finland won against Bosnia and Herzegovina and are still alive for a playoff ticket. They have a difficult match against France in the last round and might need some help from Bosnia and Herzegovina who play Ukraine.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	7	15	17.2	(16-18)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Finland	7	11	11.6	(11-12)	60%	< 1%	60%	15%	6%	6%
Ukraine	7	9	10.7	(9-12)	40%	< 1%	40%	15%	7%	7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7	7	8.11	(7-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	8	3	3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	7	19	20.9	(20-22)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Wales	7	14	14.9	(14-15)	54%	< 1%	100%	55%	29%	29%
Czechia	7	11	13.7	(14-14)	46%	< 1%	100%	36%	16%	16%
Estonia	7	4	4.23	(4-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	8	3	3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Everything went Turkey's way last night. They won against Gibraltar with 6-0, so they now have better goal difference than Norway. Netherlands missed qualification with two late goals by Montenegro and 2-2. Norway could not score against Latvia and will need to win against Netherlands or that Turkey lose against Montenegro.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	9	20	22.3	(21-23)	5%	88%	5%	3%	2%	90%
Turkey	9	18	19.9	(19-21)	84%	7%	84%	41%	20%	27%
Norway	9	18	18.5	(18-19)	11%	5%	11%	5%	2%	7%
Montenegro	9	12	12.8	(12-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	9	6	7.64	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	9	0	1.12	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Below are the countries that can finish 2nd and their probability to be seeded if they do. Group A and C will be seeded, while groups D and J will not. The remaining 6 countries are fighting over four remaining seeded seats.

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
11%	Portugal	A	100%	17	17	17	10.6
89%	Serbia	A	100%	17.2	17	18	5.9
< 1%	England	I	100%	20	20	20	21
53%	Switzerland	C	100%	17.4	15	18	10.5
47%	Italy	C	100%	16.8	15	18	10.6
13%	Spain	B	100%	16	16	16	7.6
60%	Russia	H	100%	16	16	16	5.1
87%	Sweden	B	90%	15.2	15	16	5.1
100%	Poland	I	89%	15.9	14	17	9.8
54%	Wales	E	80%	15.6	14	17	5.3
40%	Croatia	H	77%	14.5	14	15	9.7
5%	Netherlands	G	44%	14	14	14	8.6
84%	Turkey	G	37%	14	12	15	2
100%	Scotland	F	36%	14.8	14	17	4
11%	Norway	G	35%	14.2	12	15	2.8
46%	Czechia	E	27%	14	14	14	6.2
60%	Finland	D	< 1%	11.9	11	14	0.9
40%	Ukraine	D	< 1%	12	12	12	2.9
42%	Romania	J	< 1%	11	11	11	1
58%	North Macedonia	J	< 1%	11.6	9	12	5.5