PL: Man United beat Arsenal in race for CL

Man United beat Arsenal in race for Champions League. Everton lose Mercyside derby and is now the team with poorest form, only one point in the last five matches, 4 less than expected.

Hot Teams
Norwich: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Arsenal: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
29.2%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
22.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
20%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6.9%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham
5.7%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
32	Man City	83.5	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.81%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%
31	Liverpool	80.7	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.88%	99.39%	29%	< 1%	< 1%	99.48%
33	Chelsea	80.0	+50	< 1%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.81%	99.10%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	99.18%
21	Man United	63.2	+15	< 1%	90%	81%	64%	37%	< 1%	15%	30%	40%
23	Arsenal	62.4	+7	< 1%	86%	74%	55%	30%	< 1%	17%	32%	30%
21	West Ham	60.5	+15	< 1%	81%	67%	46%	22%	< 1%	16%	25%	34%
22	Tottenham	56.8	-4	< 1%	57%	38%	20%	8%	< 1%	18%	23%	8%
19	Leicester	52.0	-4	< 1%	27%	14%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	9%	17%	5%
21	Wolves	50.0	-8	1.6%	17%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	< 1%
19	Brighton	47.9	-10	3.6%	10%	4.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	5%	< 1%
16	Aston Villa	46.6	-9	6%	8%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	4.7%	< 1%
15	Leeds	46.4	-12	6%	7%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.7%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	46.2	-6	6%	7%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	4.3%	< 1%
15	Everton	44.9	-13	9%	4.5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	4.3%	< 1%
15	Southampton	42.8	-16	16%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
16	Brentford	42.6	-14	16%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
13	Watford	39.1	-20	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
10	Burnley	38.8	-16	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%
10	Norwich	32.5	-39	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
7	Newcastle	32.1	-29	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	36%	24%	40%	Chelsea
Newcastle	47%	24%	30%	Burnley
Wolves	23%	22%	55%	Liverpool
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
Watford	17%	20%	64%	Man City
Leeds	56%	22%	22%	Brentford
Man United	65%	19%	16%	Crystal Palace
Tottenham	65%	19%	16%	Norwich
Aston Villa	45%	24%	31%	Leicester
Everton	36%	24%	40%	Arsenal