PL: Arsenal and West Ham the hottest teams in premier league

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
West Ham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Norwich: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

Likely combination of teams in CL

Probability	Teams
25%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
22.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
21.4%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6.6%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
5.5%	Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, West Ham

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
29	Man City	82.5	+52	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.92%	99.63%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	99.70%
28	Liverpool	79.1	+56	< 1%	99.98%	99.91%	99.67%	98.7%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%
30	Chelsea	78.1	+48	< 1%	99.96%	99.85%	99.41%	97.9%	21%	< 1%	1.4%	98.0%
18	Man United	62.6	+15	< 1%	86%	75%	57%	33%	< 1%	16%	29%	36%
23	Arsenal	62.6	+6	< 1%	84%	72%	54%	31%	< 1%	17%	29%	31%
20	West Ham	61.3	+15	< 1%	81%	67%	48%	26%	< 1%	16%	25%	36%
19	Tottenham	57.5	-2	< 1%	57%	39%	23%	9%	< 1%	17%	23%	9%
18	Leicester	53.4	-2	< 1%	32%	19%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	10%	19%	7%
20	Wolves	50.6	-7	1.4%	17%	9%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.1%
18	Brighton	48.3	-10	3.5%	10%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	5%	< 1%
16	Aston Villa	47.5	-9	4.7%	8%	3.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.9%	< 1%
15	Everton	47.5	-8	4.8%	9%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	5%	< 1%
16	Crystal Palace	45.3	-9	9%	4.8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	3.7%	< 1%
12	Leeds	45.3	-12	9%	4.7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	4.2%	< 1%
16	Brentford	44.2	-12	11%	3.1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	3.3%	< 1%
14	Southampton	43.0	-16	17%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%
13	Watford	39.8	-20	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
9	Burnley	37.2	-19	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
6	Newcastle	33.6	-27	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
9	Norwich	31.3	-41	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	57%	22%	22%	Norwich
Leeds	54%	22%	24%	Crystal Palace
West Ham	60%	21%	19%	Brighton
Wolves	56%	22%	22%	Burnley
Southampton	39%	24%	37%	Leicester
Watford	21%	22%	57%	Chelsea
Aston Villa	21%	22%	57%	Man City
Everton	24%	23%	53%	Liverpool
Tottenham	60%	21%	19%	Brentford
Man United	54%	22%	24%	Arsenal