PL: Spurs up as 2nd-favorite in CL race and West Ham out of top-4 race.

 

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.6 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Southampton: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	95.2%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	100%	95.5%	2.3%
Seventh team	95.9%	11%	7%
Eighth team	17%	7%	4.2%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

70

Man City

89.5

+62

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

60%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

69

Liverpool

87.9

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

39%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

59

Chelsea

79.0

+48

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

99.96%

99.61%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.65%

54

Arsenal

70.3

+18

< 1%

99.85%

98.4%

90%

70%

< 1%

1.6%

28%

70%

51

Tottenham

65.3

+14

< 1%

97.7%

88%

55%

16%

< 1%

10%

72%

16%

50

Man United

64.9

+12

< 1%

97.3%

87%

49%

13%

< 1%

11%

73%

13%

45

West Ham

58.4

+10

< 1%

66%

20%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

38%

15%

17%

46

Wolves

56.5

+4

< 1%

32%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33%

6%

< 1%

36

Leicester

51.5

-4

< 1%

6%

1.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

20%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

47.4

-1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Southampton

46.0

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Crystal Palace

45.3

-1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4.7%

< 1%

33

Brighton

43.0

-14

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Newcastle

41.3

-21

4.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29

Leeds

39.3

-33

16%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Brentford

38.1

-20

19%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Everton

37.0

-24

34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20

Burnley

36.3

-17

37%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

30.8

-34

88%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

17

Norwich

25.2

-52

99.63%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Burnley vs Man City (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	45%	53%	68%
Liverpool	55%	47%	32%
Liverpool vs Watford (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	42%	28%	22%
Man City	58%	72%	78%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
97	2.1%	2.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	2.1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.3%	100%
95	8%	5%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	-
94	13%	5%	97.4%	5%	3.7%	98.0%
93	19%	6%	96.5%	9%	4.5%	86%
92	31%	12%	89%	14%	4.6%	89%
91	40%	9%	80%	25%	11%	69%
90	51%	11%	70%	34%	9%	59%
89	63%	12%	56%	45%	11%	48%
88	72%	9%	44%	57%	13%	32%
87	81%	8%	32%	67%	10%	24%
86	87%	7%	21%	76%	9%	15%
85	92%	4.5%	14%	84%	8%	9%
84	95.3%	3.4%	8%	89%	5%	5%
83	97.4%	2.1%	4%	94%	4.2%	2.7%
82	98.6%	1.2%	2%	96.3%	2.8%	1.1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	60%	67%	80%
Tottenham	21%	18%	11%
Man United	18%	15%	9%
Tottenham vs Newcastle (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	21%	11%	8%
Arsenal	67%	74%	76%
Man United	12%	15%	16%

	Arsenal			West Ham			Tottenham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
79	2.0%	1.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	3.4%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	6%	2.4%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
76	10%	4.2%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	15%	4.7%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
74	21%	7%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
73	29%	8%	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	1.7%	83%	1.6%	< 1%	85%
72	38%	8%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	4.9%	2.1%	72%	3.8%	2.2%	73%
71	48%	10%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	3.2%	63%	6%	2.7%	60%
70	58%	10%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	63%	14%	6%	49%	10%	3.9%	49%
69	67%	9%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	45%	20%	6%	36%	17%	7%	34%
68	75%	9%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	36%	28%	8%	26%	24%	7%	24%
67	83%	7%	40%	1.8%	1.1%	28%	38%	10%	15%	33%	9%	15%
66	88%	6%	27%	3.3%	1.4%	22%	47%	9%	9%	44%	11%	7%
65	92%	4.4%	16%	6%	2.3%	18%	58%	10%	4.2%	54%	10%	3.6%
64	95.5%	3.0%	8%	10%	4.3%	17%	68%	10%	1.7%	65%	10%	1.5%
63	97.4%	1.9%	4%	15%	4.7%	16%	76%	8%	< 1%	74%	10%	< 1%
62	98.7%	1.2%	1%	21%	7%	16%	84%	7%	< 1%	82%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Leicester (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	91%	82%	75%
Wolves	5%	7%	9%
West Ham	30%	34%	36%
Tottenham vs Newcastle (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	92%	84%	79%
Wolves	5%	7%	8%
West Ham	30%	33%	36%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	1.6%	< 1%	15%	2.9%	1.7%	17%	29%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	3.8%	2.2%	27%	4.9%	2.1%	28%	38%	8%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	6%	2.7%	40%	8%	3.2%	37%	48%	10%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	10%	3.9%	50%	14%	6%	51%	58%	10%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	17%	7%	65%	20%	6%	63%	67%	9%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	24%	7%	76%	28%	8%	74%	75%	9%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	33%	9%	84%	38%	10%	84%	83%	7%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	1.1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	44%	11%	90%	47%	9%	89%	88%	6%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	3.3%	1.4%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	54%	10%	92%	58%	10%	92%	92%	4.4%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	6%	2.3%	65%	1.0%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	65%	10%	90%	68%	10%	91%	95.5%	3.0%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	10%	4.3%	56%	2.2%	1.1%	59%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	74%	10%	86%	76%	8%	87%	97.4%	1.9%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	15%	4.7%	46%	3.7%	1.5%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	82%	7%	78%	84%	7%	80%	98.7%	1.2%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	21%	7%	34%	8%	3.8%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	88%	6%	68%	89%	6%	69%	99.36%	< 1%	62%	1.6%	< 1%	39%	30%	9%	24%	12%	4.5%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	4.7%	56%	93%	4.0%	58%	99.71%	< 1%	51%	2.7%	1.1%	31%	39%	9%	15%	18%	6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	95.8%	3.0%	43%	96.2%	2.9%	44%	99.89%	< 1%	37%	4.7%	1.9%	24%	49%	10%	8%	28%	10%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%
58	97.8%	2.0%	30%	98.0%	1.8%	31%	99.96%	< 1%	25%	8%	3.1%	21%	60%	11%	4.0%	37%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%
57	98.9%	1.2%	20%	99.01%	< 1%	21%	99.99%	< 1%	17%	12%	3.8%	19%	69%	9%	1.7%	48%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Aston Villa (5.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	47%	33%	25%
West Ham	65%	74%	77%
Aston Villa	< 1%	1.0%	3.5%
West Ham vs Everton (3.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	76%	63%	56%
Wolves	34%	43%	49%

	West Ham			Wolves			Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	1.8%	1.1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	33%	9%	1.5%	38%	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	83%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	3.3%	1.4%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	44%	11%	2.7%	47%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	88%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	6%	2.3%	16%	1.0%	< 1%	26%	54%	10%	4.7%	58%	10%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	92%	4.4%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	10%	4.3%	26%	2.2%	1.1%	36%	65%	10%	8%	68%	10%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	95.5%	3.0%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	15%	4.7%	36%	3.7%	1.5%	45%	74%	10%	13%	76%	8%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	97.4%	1.9%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	21%	7%	45%	8%	3.8%	55%	82%	7%	20%	84%	7%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	98.7%	1.2%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	30%	9%	53%	12%	4.5%	59%	88%	6%	28%	89%	6%	27%	1.6%	< 1%	42%	99.36%	< 1%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	55%
60	39%	9%	57%	18%	6%	58%	93%	4.7%	36%	93%	4.0%	36%	2.7%	1.1%	40%	99.71%	< 1%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	56%
59	49%	10%	58%	28%	10%	54%	95.8%	3.0%	44%	96.2%	2.9%	43%	4.7%	1.9%	35%	99.89%	< 1%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	52%
58	60%	11%	52%	37%	10%	46%	97.8%	2.0%	47%	98.0%	1.8%	47%	8%	3.1%	27%	99.96%	< 1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	44%
57	69%	9%	45%	48%	11%	38%	98.9%	1.2%	46%	99.01%	< 1%	46%	12%	3.8%	19%	99.99%	< 1%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	31%
56	77%	9%	36%	61%	13%	30%	99.51%	< 1%	39%	99.58%	< 1%	41%	17%	5%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	24%
55	85%	7%	25%	71%	10%	22%	99.80%	< 1%	31%	99.84%	< 1%	31%	24%	7%	7%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	3.1%	1.7%	13%
54	90%	5%	16%	80%	9%	17%	99.94%	< 1%	22%	99.95%	< 1%	24%	31%	8%	4.3%	100%	< 1%	-	5%	2.1%	8%
53	94%	4.1%	9%	88%	8%	12%	99.98%	< 1%	12%	99.99%	< 1%	15%	40%	9%	2.2%	100%	< 1%	-	8%	3.3%	4%
52	96.7%	2.7%	4%	93%	4.9%	8%	>99.99%	< 1%	7%	>99.99%	< 1%	8%	50%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	14%	6%	1.8%
51	98.3%	1.6%	2%	96.2%	3.4%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	59%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	20%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Everton (10.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	75%	57%	44%
Everton	56%	69%	85%
Leeds vs Southampton (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	92%	82%	75%
West Ham vs Everton (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	61%	69%	82%
Brentford	82%	80%	77%
Burnley	64%	62%	58%
Burnley vs Man City (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	78%	65%	57%
Everton	62%	66%	68%
Brentford	77%	80%	82%
Leeds	81%	84%	86%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Brentford			Leeds			Newcastle			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
40	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	6%	< 1%	26%	7%	< 1%	34%	10%	< 1%	46%	10%	< 1%	67%	10%	< 1%	83%	9%	< 1%
39	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	7%	< 1%	34%	8%	< 1%	44%	10%	< 1%	57%	11%	< 1%	77%	9%	< 1%	90%	6%	< 1%
38	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	39%	8%	< 1%	44%	9%	< 1%	55%	11%	< 1%	67%	10%	< 1%	85%	8%	< 1%	94%	4.5%	< 1%
37	7%	3.0%	< 1%	47%	9%	< 1%	53%	9%	< 1%	67%	12%	< 1%	76%	9%	< 1%	90%	6%	< 1%	97.2%	3.2%	< 1%
36	10%	3.6%	< 1%	56%	9%	< 1%	63%	10%	< 1%	77%	10%	< 1%	84%	8%	< 1%	95%	4.3%	< 1%	98.8%	1.5%	< 1%
35	15%	5%	< 1%	65%	8%	< 1%	72%	9%	< 1%	85%	8%	< 1%	90%	6%	< 1%	97.4%	2.9%	< 1%	99.53%	< 1%	< 1%
34	23%	8%	< 1%	73%	8%	< 1%	80%	8%	< 1%	92%	7%	< 1%	94%	4.3%	< 1%	98.8%	1.4%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%
33	31%	8%	< 1%	80%	7%	< 1%	87%	7%	< 1%	95.9%	3.9%	< 1%	97.3%	2.9%	< 1%	99.57%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%
32	41%	10%	< 1%	86%	6%	< 1%	92%	5%	< 1%	98.2%	2.3%	< 1%	98.8%	1.5%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
31	53%	11%	< 1%	91%	4.7%	< 1%	95.2%	3.4%	< 1%	99.62%	1.4%	< 1%	99.56%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
30	63%	10%	< 1%	94%	3.4%	< 1%	97.5%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	73%	10%	< 1%	96.4%	2.4%	< 1%	98.9%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	82%	9%	< 1%	98.0%	1.6%	< 1%	99.54%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	88%	7%	< 1%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	93%	5.0%	< 1%	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	96.7%	3.5%	< 1%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	98.5%	1.8%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Chelsea	79%	13%	8%	Brentford
Leeds	43%	24%	33%	Southampton
Wolves	54%	22%	24%	Aston Villa
Burnley	19%	21%	61%	Man City
Brighton	60%	21%	19%	Norwich
Man United	62%	20%	18%	Leicester
West Ham	62%	20%	18%	Everton
Tottenham	59%	21%	20%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	32%	24%	44%	Arsenal
Burnley	51%	23%	26%	Everton