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Iran and South Korea have clinched direct qualifications. UAE, Iraq and Lebanon are fighting over the playoff place. The match between Iraq and UAE will likely determine who takes the third place. After than UAE play South Korea (home) and Iraq play Syria (away).
| Group A | ||||||||||||
| Country | MP | Pts | Simulated Pts | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Round 4 | Playoff | Playoff Winner | Qatar | ||
| Iran | 8 | 22 | 25.7 | (25-26) | < 1% | 34% | 66% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | |
| South Korea | 8 | 20 | 23.8 | (23-26) | < 1% | 66% | 34% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | |
| United Arab Emirates | 8 | 9 | 10.3 | (9-12) | 62% | < 1% | < 1% | 62% | 9% | 1% | 1% | |
| Iraq | 8 | 5 | 8.88 | (8-11) | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | 30% | 12% | 3% | 3% | |
| Lebanon | 8 | 6 | 7.67 | (6-9) | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Syria | 8 | 2 | 4.52 | (3-6) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
Group B is more open with three teams fighting over the two direct tickets. On Thursday Japan visit Australia and Saudi play China (away). On Tuesday Saudi play Australia while Japan host Vietnam.
| Group B | ||||||||||||
| Country | MP | Pts | Simulated Pts | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Round 4 | Playoff | Playoff Winner | Qatar | ||
| Japan | 8 | 18 | 21.8 | (21-24) | 12% | 43% | 46% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 92% | |
| Saudi Arabia | 8 | 19 | 21.7 | (20-23) | 14% | 43% | 43% | 14% | 9% | 2% | 88% | |
| Australia | 8 | 15 | 18.1 | (16-19) | 75% | 14% | 11% | 75% | 60% | 21% | 46% | |
| Oman | 8 | 8 | 11.1 | (10-12) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| China | 8 | 5 | 7.3 | (6-8) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Vietnam | 8 | 3 | 4.72 | (3-6) | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
Japan: As shown in the table below, Japan clinch qualification if they beat Australia and practically (98%) clinch qualification with a draw.
| Australia - Japan | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 74% | 98.3% | 100% | Chi - Sau | ||
| 91% | 99.98% | 100% | 95.9% | Home | |
| 86% | 97.4% | 100% | 93% | Draw | |
| 52% | 97.3% | 100% | 78% | Away | |
Saudi Arabia simply clinch qualification if they take as many points against China as Australia take against Japan. Otherwise take have to avoid losing against Australia in the last match or hope for help from Vietnam playing China.
| Australia - Japan | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 77% | 85% | 100% | Chi - Sau | ||
| 61% | 58% | 100% | 73% | Home | |
| 65% | 100% | 100% | 85% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Away | |
| Australia - Japan | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 48% | 17% | < 1% | Chi - Sau | ||
| 49% | 42% | < 1% | 31% | Home | |
| 48% | 2.6% | < 1% | 22% | Draw | |
| 48% | 2.7% | < 1% | 22% | Away | |
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