World Cup: South America

Uruguay play Peru (home) and Chile (away).

Peru play Uruguay (away) and Paraguay (home)

Chile play Brazil (away) and Uruguay (home)

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	15	39	46.3	(45-48)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	15	35	39.5	(38-41)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Ecuador	16	25	27.4	(26-29)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	100%
Uruguay	16	22	25.7	(25-28)	15%	79%	12%	91%
Peru	16	21	23.4	(22-24)	55%	20%	35%	55%
Colombia	16	17	20.9	(20-23)	15%	< 1%	11%	11%
Chile	16	19	20.6	(19-22)	13%	2%	9%	11%
Bolivia	16	15	15.6	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Paraguay	16	13	15.5	(14-17)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Venezuela	16	10	12	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Uruguay and Peru play a match tomorrow that will very much decide who clinch the fourth direct qualification spot.
Uruguay clinch direct qualification if they win against Peru and Chile don't win against Brazil. If they lose, their chances are slim.

Brazil - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
81%	79%	60%	Uru - Per
100%	100%	73%	98.1%	Home
67%	59%	53%	65%	Draw
10%	11%	10%	10%	Away

 

Peru have 90% if they win as they finish with a fairly easy home match against Paraguay.

Brazil - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
81%	79%	60%	Uru - Per
100%	100%	73%	98.1%	Home
67%	59%	53%	65%	Draw
10%	11%	10%	10%	Away

 

Chile need to win away against Brazil to have a chance.

Brazil - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	2%	26%	Uru - Per
< 1%	< 1%	27%	1.9%	Home
< 1%	11%	32%	4%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	16%	1.2%	Away