PL: Match week 3

 Hot Teams
Arsenal: 9 points in the last 3 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Brighton: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Leeds: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 3.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 2 points in the last 3 matches, 4.5 less than expected
West Ham: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Everton: 1 point in the last 3 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
7	Man City	82.4	+53	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.74%	99.08%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	99.29%
2	Liverpool	78.3	+48	< 1%	99.85%	99.62%	99.0%	96.9%	31%	< 1%	1.9%	97.7%
4	Chelsea	66.8	+22	< 1%	92%	86%	77%	59%	2.4%	6%	23%	62%
9	Arsenal	66.3	+22	< 1%	91%	85%	74%	56%	2.2%	6%	23%	61%
7	Tottenham	65.8	+21	< 1%	90%	83%	72%	53%	1.9%	7%	26%	56%
3	Man United	56.3	+3	< 1%	48%	35%	21%	11%	< 1%	12%	22%	17%
7	Brighton	54.8	+1	1.3%	40%	28%	16%	8%	< 1%	12%	19%	8%
5	Newcastle	52.1	-1	2.9%	27%	17%	9%	3.9%	< 1%	9%	13%	3.9%
1	Leicester	52.0	-1	3.2%	27%	17%	9%	4.0%	< 1%	10%	14%	4.0%
4	Crystal Palace	51.2	-2	3.8%	23%	15%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	9%	12%	3.1%
0	West Ham	49.9	-3	5%	19%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	7%	26%	2.2%
7	Leeds	47.9	-9	8%	11%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	4.8%	6%	1.0%
3	Aston Villa	47.8	-10	9%	12%	7%	3.0%	1.1%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.1%
4	Brentford	46.4	-8	12%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	5%	< 1%
1	Wolves	44.5	-11	18%	6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	4.1%	< 1%
1	Everton	41.3	-16	32%	2.2%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.4%	< 1%
1	Southampton	39.9	-22	40%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.7%	< 1%
5	Fulham	39.4	-24	43%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	36.9	-31	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Forest	36.0	-31	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	61%	21%	18%	Southampton
Southampton	34%	24%	42%	Man United
Chelsea	62%	20%	18%	Leicester
Liverpool	86%	9%	4.7%	Bournemouth
Man City	77%	14%	9%	Crystal Palace
Brighton	56%	22%	22%	Leeds
Brentford	51%	23%	26%	Everton
Arsenal	72%	16%	12%	Fulham
Aston Villa	44%	24%	32%	West Ham
Wolves	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle
Forest	23%	22%	55%	Tottenham