CL: Predictions after match week 2

 

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Napoli	10.9	(9-13)	1%	28%	33%	39%	71%
2	3	Liverpool	11.2	(10-13)	2%	19%	37%	41%	79%
2	3	Ajax	9.1	(7-11)	5%	47%	28%	20%	48%
2	0	Rangers	3.2	(1-4)	92%	7%	1%	< 1%	2%

Liverpool with a crucial win against Ajax makes them favorites with Napoli to advance to the knockout stage.

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Brugge	9.1	(7-10)	14%	31%	31%	24%	55%
2	3	Leverkusen	8.1	(6-10)	30%	28%	26%	17%	43%
2	3	Atletico	10.4	(9-12)	8%	17%	25%	50%	76%
2	0	Porto	6.8	(5-9)	48%	25%	18%	9%	27%

Brugge surprising everyone with 6p after two matches making this group wide open.

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Bayern	14.1	(13-16)	< 1%	2%	13%	85%	98%
2	3	Barcelona	9.1	(7-11)	2%	43%	45%	9%	54%
2	3	Inter	8.9	(7-10)	3%	50%	41%	6%	47%
2	0	Viktoria Plzen	2.3	(1-4)	95%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Bayern are dominating as expected and Barcelona are fighting with Inter about the second spot.

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Sporting	11.6	(10-13)	3%	9%	31%	57%	88%
2	3	Tottenham	10.3	(9-12)	5%	19%	43%	34%	76%
2	3	Frankfurt	7.5	(6-9)	23%	50%	20%	7%	27%
2	0	Marseille	4.8	(3-7)	70%	22%	7%	2%	9%

One of the most open groups. Marseille in deep trouble and it looks like Sporting and Tottenham will proceed.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	4	Milan	10.1	(8-12)	7%	16%	25%	51%	77%
2	3	Dinamo Zagreb	7	(5-9)	39%	28%	23%	10%	33%
2	2	Salzburg	7.3	(6-9)	33%	27%	26%	14%	40%
2	1	Chelsea	7.9	(6-10)	21%	29%	26%	24%	50%

Chelsea and Milan were favorites, but now it looks like a very tight race between Salzburg and Chelsea , while Milan probably will take one of two spots.

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Real Madrid	15	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	3%	96%	100%
2	4	Shakhtar	7.2	(5-8)	18%	34%	45%	3%	47%
2	1	Celtic	4.9	(3-7)	51%	29%	19%	< 1%	19%
2	0	RB Leipzig	6.3	(4-8)	30%	36%	33%	< 1%	34%

Real have practically clinched a spot in the knockout stage. Leipzig are in trouble after losing against Shakhtar.

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Man City	15.2	(14-16)	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	100%
2	3	Dortmund	8.5	(7-10)	6%	31%	59%	4%	63%
2	1	FC Kobenhavn	3.2	(2-4)	81%	16%	3%	< 1%	3%
2	1	Sevilla	6.7	(5-8)	13%	52%	34%	< 1%	34%

Man City have practically already clinched a spot in last 16. Dortmund and Sevilla are as expected fighting over the other spot, with an advantage for Dortmund after Sevilla's draw against Kobenhavn.

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
2	6	Paris SG	13.1	(12-15)	< 1%	4%	32%	64%	96%
2	6	Benfica	11.6	(10-13)	< 1%	11%	54%	35%	89%
2	0	Juventus	6.4	(4-8)	19%	67%	12%	2%	14%
2	0	Maccabi Haifa	3.1	(1-4)	80%	19%	1%	< 1%	1%

 PSG were favorites ahead of Juventus, but with Juventus loss against Benfica, Benfica are now favorites together with PSG to proceed to the knockout stage.

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	4.9%	95%	99.69%	82%	59%	41%	25%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	3.3%	96.3%	99.61%	74%	50%	31%	17%
A	Liverpool	19%	37%	41%	79%	59%	41%	26%	15%
C	Bayern	2.0%	13%	85%	97.9%	71%	45%	27%	14%
H	Paris SG	4.3%	32%	64%	95.6%	53%	25%	11%	4.3%
D	Tottenham	19%	43%	34%	76%	42%	20%	8%	3.4%
B	Atletico	17%	25%	50%	76%	40%	18%	7%	2.8%
C	Barcelona	43%	45%	9%	54%	29%	14%	6%	2.5%
E	Chelsea	29%	26%	24%	50%	28%	14%	6%	2.4%
A	Ajax	47%	28%	20%	48%	26%	13%	6%	2.4%
E	Milan	16%	25%	51%	77%	38%	16%	6%	2.1%
C	Inter	50%	41%	6%	47%	23%	11%	4.4%	1.8%
A	Napoli	27%	33%	39%	71%	33%	13%	4.2%	1.4%
H	Benfica	11%	54%	35%	89%	33%	11%	3.3%	1.0%
G	Dortmund	31%	59%	4.2%	63%	26%	9%	2.8%	< 1%
D	Sporting	9%	31%	57%	88%	33%	10%	2.6%	< 1%
B	Porto	25%	18%	9%	27%	11%	4.8%	1.8%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	52%	34%	< 1%	34%	15%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
F	RB Leipzig	36%	33%	< 1%	34%	13%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	28%	26%	17%	43%	14%	4.2%	1.0%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	27%	26%	14%	40%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	66%	12%	1.7%	14%	4.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	50%	20%	7%	27%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	28%	23%	10%	33%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Marseille	22%	7%	2.3%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	35%	45%	2.7%	47%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	31%	31%	24%	55%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	29%	19%	< 1%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	7%	1.4%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	16%	2.6%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	19%	1.3%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%