EL & ECL: Predictions after match week 2

Europa League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Arsenal	17%	78%	95%	89%	61%	40%	25%	15%
	Liverpool			19%	17%	15%	13%	10%	7%
	Ajax			47%	38%	28%	19%	12%	7%
	Inter			50%	40%	28%	19%	12%	7%
	Barcelona			43%	35%	26%	17%	11%	6%
C	Betis	23%	71%	94%	83%	46%	24%	12%	5%
E	Man United	67%	26%	93%	60%	37%	19%	10%	4.4%
	Chelsea			29%	23%	18%	12%	7%	4.1%
E	Sociedad	24%	73%	96.8%	83%	41%	19%	8%	3.3%
	Sevilla			52%	38%	24%	13%	7%	3.3%
	Juventus			67%	46%	27%	14%	7%	3.0%
	Tottenham			19%	15%	11%	7%	4.5%	2.5%
G	Freiburg	15%	81%	95.5%	87%	38%	16%	6%	2.4%
C	Roma	51%	25%	75%	48%	25%	12%	5%	2.3%
	Porto			25%	19%	13%	8%	4.4%	2.3%
	Napoli			28%	20%	13%	7%	4.0%	2.0%
	Atletico			17%	13%	9%	6%	3.5%	1.9%
A	PSV	48%	15%	63%	37%	20%	10%	4.3%	1.9%
F	Feyenoord	34%	44%	78%	58%	27%	12%	4.7%	1.8%
	RB Leipzig			36%	25%	15%	8%	3.8%	1.8%
	Dortmund			31%	22%	14%	7%	3.7%	1.8%
H	Monaco	30%	49%	78%	61%	27%	11%	4.3%	1.6%
F	Lazio	34%	42%	76%	55%	26%	11%	4.1%	1.6%
B	Rennes	32%	55%	87%	67%	28%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
	Milan			16%	12%	8%	4.8%	2.7%	1.4%
	Frankfurt			50%	30%	15%	6%	2.4%	< 1%
D	Braga	21%	71%	92%	77%	28%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
	Leverkusen			28%	18%	10%	4.5%	1.9%	< 1%
D	Union Berlin	32%	7%	39%	21%	11%	4.8%	2.0%	< 1%
	Salzburg			27%	17%	9%	4.0%	1.6%	< 1%
	Bayern			2.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Paris SG			4.3%	3.4%	2.5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Benfica			11%	7%	4.3%	2.3%	1.1%	< 1%
	Marseille			22%	13%	6%	2.7%	1.0%	< 1%
	Sporting			9%	6%	3.3%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dinamo Zagreb			28%	15%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Fenerbahce	40%	36%	76%	46%	12%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Nantes	37%	13%	50%	22%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rangers			7%	3.9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			35%	16%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Real Madrid			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Celtic			29%	14%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Man City			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Crvena Zvezda	18%	7%	25%	13%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brugge			31%	14%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Bodoe Glimt	32%	6%	38%	14%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dynamo Kyiv	11%	4.2%	16%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa			19%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn			16%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Ferencvaros	33%	33%	66%	38%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Trabzonspor	19%	11%	30%	14%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	St Gillis	44%	22%	66%	28%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	17%	9%	26%	11%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Viktoria Plzen			4.5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Olympiakos	16%	1.2%	17%	4.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sturm Graz	15%	6%	21%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Karabakh Agdam	32%	5%	38%	11%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Razgrad	25%	4.3%	30%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Larnaca	17%	4.8%	22%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Sheriff Tiraspol	7%	1.3%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Malmoe	3.0%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Zuerich	3.5%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	1.6%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	HJK Helsinki	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

 Europa Conference League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
C	Villarreal	1.6%	98.3%	99.84%	99.61%	85%	69%	54%	38%
B	West Ham	10%	89%	99.0%	96.2%	72%	47%	28%	14%
D	Koeln	23%	67%	90%	82%	54%	30%	14%	6%
E	Alkmaar	6%	92%	98.7%	96.2%	61%	30%	13%	5%
	Union Berlin			49%	41%	27%	17%	9%	4.6%
G	Slavia Praha	22%	71%	93%	84%	50%	24%	10%	3.7%
A	Fiorentina	40%	43%	83%	67%	41%	21%	9%	3.6%
	PSV			30%	26%	17%	11%	7%	3.5%
	Roma			24%	20%	14%	9%	5%	2.7%
D	Nice	46%	23%	69%	51%	29%	14%	6%	2.4%
	Arsenal			4.8%	4.4%	3.6%	2.8%	2.1%	1.4%
	Feyenoord			15%	13%	8%	4.9%	2.7%	1.3%
	Lazio			16%	13%	8%	4.9%	2.6%	1.2%
	Monaco			15%	12%	8%	4.6%	2.4%	1.1%
H	Basel	3.9%	95.5%	99.36%	97.2%	44%	15%	4.0%	1.1%
F	Molde	35%	26%	61%	44%	22%	9%	3.2%	1.0%
	Man United			6%	5%	3.9%	2.6%	1.7%	< 1%
	Betis			6%	4.8%	3.7%	2.5%	1.6%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda			29%	21%	11%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
	Bodoe Glimt			52%	35%	16%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
	Nantes			35%	24%	12%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
	Rennes			10%	8%	4.9%	2.8%	1.4%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			31%	22%	10%	4.6%	1.7%	< 1%
B	Anderlecht	61%	10%	71%	37%	14%	4.9%	1.4%	< 1%
	Freiburg			4.0%	3.3%	2.1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sociedad			3.1%	2.6%	1.8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Gent	31%	39%	70%	51%	20%	6%	1.3%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			28%	18%	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Djurgarden	33%	35%	68%	48%	18%	5%	1.2%	< 1%
	Braga			8%	6%	3.1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Fenerbahce			18%	12%	5%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Razgrad			63%	35%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Trabzonspor			35%	21%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			36%	21%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam			34%	20%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz			32%	19%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			77%	39%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Partizan	18%	7%	25%	14%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	St Gillis			31%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
G	CFR Cluj	17%	6%	23%	12%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Beer-Sheva	41%	< 1%	41%	15%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			20%	11%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Slovacko	13%	3.0%	16%	8%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Zuerich			13%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sivasspor	60%	23%	83%	39%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Apollon Lemesos	23%	3.1%	27%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Larnaca			41%	19%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Steaua	20%	< 1%	21%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Malmoe			12%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Omonia			14%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lech	44%	< 1%	45%	13%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Austria Wien	14%	< 1%	14%	4.9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dnipro	50%	3.6%	53%	15%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Silkeborg	10%	< 1%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Istanbulspor	38%	47%	85%	52%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Vaduz	21%	< 1%	22%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Hearts	17%	8%	24%	11%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovan Bratislava	33%	2.8%	36%	9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	HJK Helsinki			8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zalgiris Vilnius	34%	< 1%	35%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shamrock	1.0%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RFS	6%	2.2%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ballkani	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Pyunik	29%	< 1%	29%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%