PL: Leicester the coldest team

Leicester with zero points in the last five matches. They play Forest at home next and if they lose that too they are really involved in the relegation race.

Hot Teams
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Tottenham: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Liverpool: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Newcastle: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Chelsea: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
17	Man City	83.4	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.82%	99.21%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	99.40%
9	Liverpool	75.7	+47	< 1%	99.70%	99.08%	97.2%	92%	18%	< 1%	5%	94%
18	Arsenal	70.5	+26	< 1%	97.7%	95%	87%	73%	5%	3.3%	17%	76%
17	Tottenham	69.2	+27	< 1%	96.6%	92%	84%	67%	3.8%	4.6%	22%	69%
10	Chelsea	65.1	+17	< 1%	90%	80%	64%	40%	1.2%	9%	35%	44%
12	Man United	59.4	+5	< 1%	67%	49%	29%	14%	< 1%	15%	31%	18%
13	Brighton	58.1	+7	< 1%	60%	42%	23%	11%	< 1%	16%	28%	11%
8	Newcastle	50.9	+1	3.2%	22%	12%	4.9%	1.7%	< 1%	10%	11%	1.7%
6	Crystal Palace	50.6	-2	3.9%	20%	11%	4.5%	1.5%	< 1%	8%	10%	1.5%
8	Leeds	47.8	-8	8%	11%	5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	6%	< 1%
9	Brentford	47.0	-6	9%	9%	3.9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	< 1%
4	West Ham	46.4	-7	11%	8%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	18%	< 1%
7	Aston Villa	45.1	-12	14%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	3.8%	< 1%
11	Fulham	43.7	-18	20%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.9%	< 1%
1	Leicester	43.6	-13	20%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	4.2%	< 1%
6	Wolves	42.7	-15	24%	2.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	2.5%	< 1%
7	Everton	41.6	-16	29%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.2%	< 1%
7	Southampton	41.6	-19	29%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	1.9%	< 1%
8	Bournemouth	38.9	-35	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Forest	32.3	-37	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	88%	45%	11%	< 1%	14%	3.5%	< 1%
Liverpool	63%	20%	3.2%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	32%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	25%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	19%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	2.6%	< 1%
Everton	2.3%	< 1%
Southampton	3.3%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Arsenal	49%	23%	28%	Tottenham
Liverpool	73%	16%	11%	Brighton
Southampton	48%	23%	28%	Everton
Crystal Palace	35%	24%	40%	Chelsea
Bournemouth	39%	24%	37%	Brentford
Fulham	36%	24%	39%	Newcastle
West Ham	54%	22%	23%	Wolves
Man City	73%	16%	11%	Man United
Leeds	50%	23%	27%	Aston Villa
Leicester	64%	19%	16%	Forest