EL & ECL: Predictions of groups stage

Europa League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Arsenal	26%	66%	92%	83%	58%	38%	24%	14%
E	Man United	36%	56%	92%	75%	43%	23%	12%	5%
C	Betis	38%	53%	92%	73%	42%	22%	11%	5%
	Barcelona			34%	27%	19%	13%	8%	5.0%
	Inter			36%	28%	20%	13%	8%	4.8%
	Bayern			16%	14%	11%	9%	7%	4.8%
	Ajax			26%	21%	15%	10%	7%	3.9%
	Liverpool			10%	9%	8%	6%	5%	3.6%
C	Roma	46%	43%	89%	65%	34%	16%	7%	3.2%
D	Union Berlin	28%	59%	86%	71%	35%	16%	7%	2.7%
E	Sociedad	47%	40%	87%	61%	31%	15%	6%	2.6%
A	PSV	49%	27%	76%	51%	26%	13%	6%	2.6%
	Napoli			37%	26%	17%	10%	5%	2.5%
	Sevilla			37%	26%	17%	9%	4.9%	2.4%
	Dortmund			39%	27%	17%	9%	4.7%	2.3%
	Chelsea			16%	12%	9%	6%	3.9%	2.2%
	Man City			5%	4.8%	4.3%	3.6%	2.9%	2.1%
	Atletico			19%	14%	10%	6%	3.9%	2.1%
	Paris SG			16%	13%	9%	6%	3.7%	2.1%
G	Freiburg	25%	55%	81%	66%	30%	13%	5%	2.0%
	Porto			21%	16%	11%	7%	3.7%	2.0%
F	Feyenoord	34%	45%	79%	60%	28%	12%	4.9%	1.9%
	Milan			22%	16%	11%	6%	3.7%	1.9%
H	Monaco	27%	56%	82%	67%	30%	13%	4.9%	1.9%
	Tottenham			14%	11%	8%	5%	3.3%	1.9%
F	Lazio	35%	43%	78%	57%	27%	11%	4.4%	1.7%
	Benfica			32%	22%	13%	7%	3.3%	1.5%
	Juventus			32%	22%	13%	7%	3.2%	1.5%
B	Rennes	28%	52%	80%	63%	27%	11%	3.9%	1.5%
	Real Madrid			3.6%	3.2%	2.7%	2.2%	1.7%	1.2%
	RB Leipzig			23%	16%	10%	5%	2.5%	1.2%
	Leverkusen			37%	24%	13%	6%	2.6%	1.1%
	Sporting			28%	18%	10%	4.7%	2.1%	< 1%
	Salzburg			35%	21%	11%	5.0%	2.1%	< 1%
	Marseille			29%	17%	8%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%
D	Braga	40%	31%	71%	44%	16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
	Frankfurt			29%	17%	8%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Rangers			27%	16%	8%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
H	Crvena Zvezda	36%	28%	63%	38%	13%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
	Dinamo Zagreb			27%	14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Nantes	31%	22%	53%	31%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dynamo Kyiv	32%	24%	56%	33%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Celtic			37%	17%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			36%	16%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Fenerbahce	30%	20%	50%	27%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brugge			23%	10%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Olympiakos	26%	15%	40%	21%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Viktoria Plzen			15%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Bodoe Glimt	18%	4.6%	22%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa			20%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn			18%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Trabzonspor	22%	10%	32%	15%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Karabakh Agdam	18%	8%	26%	11%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	16%	7%	23%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sturm Graz	15%	6%	20%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	St Gillis	17%	6%	23%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Razgrad	14%	3.5%	18%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Ferencvaros	16%	6%	22%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Malmoe	14%	4.6%	19%	7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Zuerich	8%	1.5%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	9%	1.8%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Sheriff Tiraspol	9%	1.9%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Larnaca	10%	3.7%	14%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	HJK Helsinki	1.5%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa Conference League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
C	Villarreal	6%	92%	98.8%	97.8%	85%	69%	55%	39%
B	West Ham	17%	76%	93%	89%	67%	44%	26%	14%
A	Fiorentina	9%	89%	98.1%	95%	61%	32%	14%	6%
D	Koeln	30%	48%	78%	68%	44%	25%	12%	5%
E	Alkmaar	19%	73%	91%	84%	53%	27%	12%	4.7%
G	Slavia Praha	24%	68%	92%	83%	50%	25%	10%	4.0%
D	Nice	34%	35%	69%	56%	33%	17%	7%	2.8%
	PSV			19%	16%	11%	7%	4.2%	2.2%
	Arsenal			6%	6%	4.8%	3.8%	2.9%	1.9%
F	Molde	30%	51%	81%	68%	36%	15%	5%	1.8%
	Feyenoord			15%	12%	8%	4.8%	2.6%	1.3%
	Lazio			16%	13%	8%	4.9%	2.7%	1.3%
	Betis			8%	7%	5%	3.5%	2.2%	1.2%
	Roma			10%	9%	6%	3.8%	2.3%	1.2%
	Sociedad			11%	9%	6%	4.0%	2.3%	1.1%
	Man United			7%	6%	4.4%	3.1%	2.0%	1.1%
	Freiburg			13%	11%	7%	4.1%	2.2%	1.0%
H	Basel	17%	79%	96.0%	87%	40%	14%	3.9%	1.0%
	Rennes			15%	12%	7%	4.2%	2.1%	< 1%
	Union Berlin			10%	8%	6%	3.5%	2.0%	< 1%
	Monaco			13%	10%	6%	3.8%	2.0%	< 1%
	Braga			20%	15%	8%	4.1%	1.8%	< 1%
	Bodoe Glimt			46%	30%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda			24%	17%	8%	4.1%	1.7%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			29%	20%	9%	4.2%	1.6%	< 1%
	Nantes			27%	19%	9%	4.1%	1.6%	< 1%
	Fenerbahce			32%	22%	9%	4.0%	1.4%	< 1%
B	Anderlecht	39%	13%	52%	31%	12%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			31%	20%	8%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%
F	Djurgarden	34%	24%	58%	38%	14%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%
F	Gent	34%	24%	58%	38%	14%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%
G	CFR Cluj	47%	22%	70%	41%	15%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%
	Razgrad			65%	36%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Trabzonspor			34%	20%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			35%	21%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz			34%	19%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Partizan	19%	9%	28%	17%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam			29%	16%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Apollon Lemesos	38%	16%	54%	29%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Slovacko	17%	8%	26%	15%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	St Gillis			37%	20%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Zuerich			29%	16%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Beer-Sheva	39%	3.6%	43%	19%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Steaua	25%	7%	32%	16%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			30%	16%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Malmoe			33%	17%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			42%	21%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Omonia			40%	19%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Austria Wien	32%	2.6%	35%	14%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Larnaca			23%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Silkeborg	19%	4.2%	23%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sivasspor	28%	9%	38%	17%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lech	22%	1.4%	23%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Vaduz	21%	6%	28%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovan Bratislava	52%	16%	67%	26%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dnipro	21%	6%	27%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Hearts	45%	6%	51%	15%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	HJK Helsinki			17%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Istanbulspor	28%	2.9%	31%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zalgiris Vilnius	23%	4.1%	27%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ballkani	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shamrock	2.1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RFS	18%	1.5%	20%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Pyunik	9%	< 1%	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%