Group B - Match Day 1

England clinch knockout stage if they beat United States. Iran are out if they lose against Wales.

Group B

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
England	1	6	2	4	3	18%	73%	91%	49%	22%	9%	2.9%
United States	1	1	1	0	1	29%	12%	41%	14%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
Wales	1	1	1	0	1	28%	11%	40%	13%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Iran	1	2	6	-4	0	24%	3.8%	28%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%

Conditions for England

England - United States
Home	Draw	Away
100%	94%	70%	Ira - Wal
100%	98.5%	74%	93%	Home
100%	91%	75%	92%	Draw
100%	91%	61%	88%	Away

Conditions for United States

England - United States
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
19%	21%	24%	27%	38%	76%	79%	86%	89%	Ira - Wal
28%	29%	31%	33%	36%	64%	67%	73%	77%	41%	Home
27%	29%	32%	37%	51%	92%	92%	97%	97%	53%	Draw
4%	8%	12%	17%	33%	81%	87%	95%	99%	36%	-1
2%	3%	7%	11%	30%	75%	81%	92%	99%	31%	-2
< 1%	2%	3%	6%	28%	71%	76%	87%	97%	28%	-3
< 1%	< 1%	1%	3%	27%	70%	70%	83%	-	25%	-4

Conditions for Wales

England - United States
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
49%	48%	45%	41%	36%	35%	33%	30%	28%	Ira - Wal
5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	9%	12%	8%	3%	+4
7%	5%	3%	1%	1%	13%	11%	12%	11%	4.9%	+3
14%	13%	10%	8%	7%	20%	18%	16%	16%	12%	+2
14%	14%	12%	10%	8%	24%	20%	18%	16%	14%	+1
42%	41%	38%	33%	27%	25%	25%	25%	23%	31%	Draw
96%	92%	88%	83%	76%	57%	51%	48%	46%	76%	-1
98%	97%	93%	89%	79%	64%	58%	51%	46%	81%	-2
99%	98%	97%	94%	81%	67%	64%	57%	55%	84%	-3
99%	99%	99%	97%	82%	68%	67%	64%	-	86%	-4

Conditions for Iran

England - United States
Home	Draw	Away
32%	31%	18%	Ira - Wal
65%	63%	45%	59%	+4
63%	63%	44%	58%	+3
58%	58%	40%	54%	+2
58%	58%	40%	54%	+1
30%	30%	7%	24%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Brazil vs Serbia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brazil	26%	23%	18%
Serbia	< 1%	1.2%	2.0%

mutual information: 4.7 mBit

Belgium vs Canada	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	6%	3.5%

mutual information: 3.2 mBit

France vs Australia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
France	7%	5%	3.0%

mutual information: 3.1 mBit

Uruguay vs South Korea	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	2.8%	2.0%	< 1%

mutual information: 3 mBit

Germany vs Japan	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	3.7%	2.7%	1.3%

mutual information: 2.9 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (71%) Ecuador (27%)
		Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (14%) United States (9%)
United States (29%) Wales (28%) Iran (24%) England (18%)
				Argentina (43%) Netherlands (25%) France (8%)
Argentina (80%) Mexico (9%)
		Argentina (59%) Denmark (15%) France (14%)
Denmark (38%) France (34%) Australia (15%)
						Brazil (26%) Argentina (25%) Netherlands (12%) Spain (9%)
Spain (54%) Germany (32%)
		Spain (36%) Germany (18%) Croatia (15%) Belgium (15%)
Croatia (36%) Belgium (27%) Canada (19%) Morocco (18%)
				Brazil (40%) Spain (17%) Germany (7%) Belgium (7%)
Brazil (72%) Switzerland (16%)
		Brazil (56%) Uruguay (13%) Portugal (12%)
Uruguay (39%) Portugal (31%) South Korea (25%)
								Brazil (24%) Argentina (21%) Netherlands (9%) Spain (8%)
England (73%) United States (12%)
		England (41%) Ecuador (25%) Netherlands (16%)
Ecuador (56%) Netherlands (24%) Senegal (12%)
				France (21%) England (19%) Denmark (15%) Netherlands (10%) Ecuador (9%)
France (50%) Denmark (40%)
		France (34%) Denmark (26%) Mexico (12%) Poland (12%)
Mexico (37%) Poland (36%) Argentina (15%)
						Belgium (11%) France (11%) Portugal (9%) Brazil (8%) England (8%)
Belgium (55%) Croatia (29%) Canada (9%)
		Belgium (34%) Germany (19%) Spain (17%) Croatia (14%)
Germany (37%) Spain (29%) Japan (20%)
				Belgium (19%) Portugal (16%) Brazil (11%) Spain (10%) Germany (9%)
Portugal (53%) Uruguay (35%)
		Portugal (30%) Switzerland (19%) Uruguay (17%) Brazil (15%)
Switzerland (40%) Serbia (34%) Brazil (20%)