Group A - Match Day 1

Ecuador clinch group stage if they beat Netherlands and Senegal do not beat Qatar. Netherlands clinch group stage if they beat Ecuador and Qatar do not beat Senegal.

Group A

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Ecuador	1	2	0	2	3	56%	27%	83%	39%	13%	4.1%	1.1%
Netherlands	1	2	0	2	3	24%	71%	95%	69%	35%	18%	9%
Qatar	1	0	2	-2	0	9%	1.6%	10%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Senegal	1	0	2	-2	0	12%	< 1%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Conditions for Ecuador

Ecuador - Netherlands
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
99.9%	99.8%	99.4%	98.3%	91%	80%	76%	71%	64%	Qat - Sen
-	100%	100%	100%	94%	73%	67%	64%	66%	80%	+4
100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	80%	72%	66%	64%	83%	+3
100%	100%	100%	100%	97.4%	87%	80%	71%	66%	87%	+2
100%	100%	100%	100%	98.0%	85%	83%	77%	66%	88%	+1
100%	100%	100%	100%	93%	77%	77%	76%	74%	84%	Draw
99%	99%	99%	95%	79%	77%	77%	71%	55%	79%	-1
100%	99%	97%	94%	79%	78%	66%	55%	55%	75%	-2
100%	99%	97%	88%	78%	62%	56%	54%	54%	68%	-3
-	99%	93%	86%	78%	54%	55%	55%	50%	66%	-4

Conditions for Netherlands

Ecuador - Netherlands
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
71%	76%	81%	84%	93%	98.5%	99.5%	99.94%	99.98%	Qat - Sen
-	64%	67%	68%	87%	94%	98%	99.7%	99.9%	89%	+4
71%	67%	67%	72%	87%	94%	98.8%	99.8%	99.9%	90%	+3
66%	67%	76%	86%	87%	97.4%	98.9%	99.9%	99.9%	93%	+2
69%	79%	86%	86%	87%	98.0%	99.5%	99.9%	99.9%	94%	+1
81%	83%	85%	85%	96.4%	100%	100%	100%	100%	96.4%	Draw
68%	75%	83%	87%	97.9%	100%	100%	100%	100%	96.6%	Away

Conditions for Qatar

Ecuador - Netherlands
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
19%	17%	14%	12%	8%	8%	9%	11%	14%	Qat - Sen
-	36%	33%	32%	19%	33%	35%	36%	34%	31%	+4
29%	33%	33%	28%	17%	25%	29%	34%	35%	27%	+3
34%	33%	24%	14%	15%	14%	18%	26%	30%	19%	+2
31%	21%	14%	14%	15%	12%	12%	14%	21%	14%	+1
13%	12%	12%	13%	3.6%	1.7%	2.1%	3%	5%	4.6%	Draw
5%	3%	2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Conditions for Senegal

Ecuador - Netherlands
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
6%	8%	14%	15%	18%	22%	Qat - Sen
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	+4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	+3
< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	3%	3%	4%	1.6%	+2
< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	6%	9%	13%	4.1%	+1
2.5%	7%	21%	21%	21%	21%	15%	Draw
15%	23%	23%	23%	29%	45%	24%	-1
19%	23%	22%	34%	45%	45%	28%	-2
29%	26%	38%	44%	46%	46%	37%	-3
36%	27%	46%	45%	45%	50%	40%	-4

 

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Brazil vs Serbia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brazil	26%	23%	18%
Serbia	< 1%	1.2%	1.9%

mutual information: 4.5 mBit

Germany vs Japan	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	3.7%	2.7%	1.3%

mutual information: 3.3 mBit

France vs Australia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
France	7%	5%	3.0%

mutual information: 3.1 mBit

Belgium vs Canada	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	6%	3.5%

mutual information: 2.9 mBit

Uruguay vs South Korea	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	2.9%	2.0%	< 1%

mutual information: 2.8 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (71%) Ecuador (27%)
		Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (14%) United States (9%)
United States (30%) Wales (29%) England (21%) Iran (20%)
				Argentina (42%) Netherlands (25%) France (8%)
Argentina (80%) Mexico (9%)
		Argentina (59%) Denmark (15%) France (14%)
Denmark (38%) France (34%) Australia (16%)
						Brazil (26%) Argentina (26%) Netherlands (12%) Spain (9%)
Spain (54%) Germany (32%)
		Spain (36%) Germany (18%) Croatia (15%) Belgium (15%)
Croatia (36%) Belgium (27%) Canada (19%) Morocco (17%)
				Brazil (40%) Spain (17%) Germany (7%) Belgium (7%)
Brazil (72%) Switzerland (16%)
		Brazil (56%) Uruguay (13%) Portugal (12%)
Uruguay (39%) Portugal (31%) South Korea (25%)
								Brazil (24%) Argentina (21%) Netherlands (9%) Spain (8%)
England (71%) United States (14%)
		England (40%) Ecuador (25%) Netherlands (16%)
Ecuador (56%) Netherlands (24%) Senegal (12%)
				France (21%) England (19%) Denmark (16%) Netherlands (10%) Ecuador (9%)
France (50%) Denmark (40%)
		France (34%) Denmark (26%) Mexico (12%) Poland (12%)
Mexico (37%) Poland (36%) Argentina (15%)
						Belgium (11%) France (11%) Portugal (9%) Brazil (8%) England (8%)
Belgium (55%) Croatia (29%) Canada (9%)
		Belgium (34%) Germany (19%) Spain (17%) Croatia (14%)
Germany (37%) Spain (29%) Japan (20%)
				Belgium (19%) Portugal (16%) Brazil (11%) Spain (10%) Germany (9%)
Portugal (53%) Uruguay (35%)
		Portugal (30%) Switzerland (19%) Uruguay (17%) Brazil (15%)
Switzerland (40%) Serbia (34%) Brazil (21%)