Friday, November 18, 2022

World Cup - Predictions

 


Group A







Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Netherlands0000022%67%89%64%33%17%9%
Ecuador0000036%18%54%27%9%2.8%< 1%
Qatar0000026%11%37%15%4.3%1.1%< 1%
Senegal0000016%4.8%20%6%1.4%< 1%< 1%


Table below shows the chances for Netherlands given different results in the first two matches. For example, if Qatar beat Ecuador and Netherlands beat Senegal with one goal, they have 92% chance to advance to the knockout stage.

Conditions for Netherlands

Senegal - Netherlands
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
45%49%53%59%80%93%94%95.2%95.6%Qat - Ecu
45%49%54%59%79%92%94%95.2%96%88%Home
52%53%54%58%81%93%94%94%95%88%Draw
42%48%52%59%80%93%95%95.7%96.1%89%Away

Conditions for Ecuador
Senegal - Netherlands
HomeDrawAway
50%53%55%Qat - Ecu
14%16%11%12%+4
15%16%12%13%+3
18%18%16%17%+2
22%20%21%21%+1
44%48%51%50%Draw
69%77%78%77%-1
74%79%83%81%-2
77%80%87%85%-3
80%82%88%86%-4

Conditions for Qatar
Senegal - Netherlands
HomeDrawAway
35%37%37%Qat - Ecu
74%73%82%80%+4
71%76%80%79%+3
68%72%76%75%+2
63%71%70%70%+1
36%38%39%39%Draw
17%15%14%14%-1
13%13%10%11%-2
11%12%8%9%-3
10%11%7%8%-4

Conditions for Senegal
Senegal - Netherlands
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
69%66%62%56%30%17%14%12%11%Qat - Ecu
71%64%62%55%30%17%14%13%11%21%Home
67%69%65%61%33%18%16%15%15%23%Draw
68%66%60%54%28%15%13%11%10%19%Away

Group B






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
England0000027%44%70%38%16%6%2.2%
Iran0000026%21%47%19%6%1.6%< 1%
United States0000024%18%42%16%4.6%1.2%< 1%
Wales0000023%17%40%15%4.1%1.1%< 1%

Conditions for England
United States - Wales
HomeDrawAway
70%72%70%Eng - Ira
92%91%92%92%+4
91%90%91%91%+3
89%90%89%89%+2
85%87%86%86%+1
66%68%66%66%Draw
44%45%44%44%-1
38%42%38%39%-2
34%41%34%36%-3
29%41%33%33%-4

Conditions for Iran
United States - Wales
HomeDrawAway
46%50%46%Eng - Ira
21%29%21%23%+4
23%29%23%24%+3
26%31%26%27%+2
30%33%31%31%+1
49%54%49%50%Draw
74%78%75%75%-1
80%82%80%80%-2
83%84%83%83%-3
86%85%84%85%-4

Conditions for United States
United States - Wales
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
76%73%70%65%40%19%15%13%12%Eng - Ira
78%75%71%65%41%19%15%12%11%43%Home
71%70%69%67%39%19%17%15%14%43%Draw
75%72%68%62%39%20%15%13%12%41%Away

Conditions for Wales
United States - Wales
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
12%13%15%19%38%64%69%72%75%Eng - Ira
11%12%14%19%39%64%70%74%77%41%Home
14%15%15%18%38%65%69%69%71%41%Draw
11%13%15%19%37%61%67%71%74%39%Away

Group C






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Argentina0000015%80%95.0%70%51%31%21%
Mexico0000037%9%46%16%7%1.9%< 1%
Poland0000036%9%45%15%6%1.8%< 1%
Saudi Arabia0000012%1.8%14%2.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Conditions for Argentina
Mexico - Poland
HomeDrawAway
95.1%95%95.1%Arg - Sau
97.3%96.9%97.3%97.2%Home
88%89%88%88%Draw
72%70%72%72%-1
67%67%67%67%-2
62%61%63%62%-3
60%-56%59%-4

Conditions for Mexico
Mexico - Poland
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
87%85%81%77%45%14%10%8%6%Arg - Sau
88%86%83%78%45%14%10%7%6%46%Home
77%79%77%76%42%13%11%10%9%44%Draw
76%75%70%66%38%15%11%10%10%41%Away

Conditions for Poland
Mexico - Poland
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
6%8%10%14%44%77%81%85%87%Arg - Sau
6%7%10%14%45%78%82%86%88%45%Home
10%9%11%12%41%76%78%78%81%43%Draw
7%10%12%14%38%66%70%75%78%40%Away

Conditions for Saudi Arabia
Mexico - Poland
HomeDrawAway
13%16%13%Arg - Sau
8%12%8%9%+4
10%12%10%10%+3
11%13%11%12%+2
14%14%14%14%+1
24%28%24%25%Draw
46%54%46%48%-1
51%57%52%53%-2
62%65%59%62%-3
52%-57%54%-4

Group D






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
France0000034%50%83%48%30%15%7%
Denmark0000038%40%79%41%24%11%4.4%
Australia0000016%6%21%4.7%1.4%< 1%< 1%
Tunisia0000013%4.1%17%3.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Conditions for France
France - Australia
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
95%94%93%91%75%47%41%35%32%Den - Tun
95.7%95.2%94%92%75%46%40%34%30%84%Home
93%93%93%91%75%46%43%41%36%83%Draw
93%92%91%88%72%49%42%37%36%81%Away

Conditions for Denmark
France - Australia
HomeDrawAway
80%77%75%Den - Tun
93%89%89%92%+4
92%88%88%91%+3
91%88%85%89%+2
88%87%81%87%+1
70%67%62%68%Draw
40%36%39%39%-1
34%33%34%34%-2
29%30%30%29%-3
24%23%29%25%-4

Conditions for Australia
France - Australia
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
9%10%11%13%30%60%66%73%77%Den - Tun
7%8%9%12%28%59%66%73%77%20%Home
14%13%15%16%33%66%69%73%74%25%Draw
12%13%15%18%35%61%66%72%76%25%Away

Conditions for Tunisia
France - Australia
HomeDrawAway
16%19%18%Den - Tun
4.3%8%7%5%+4
4.8%9%8%6%+3
6%9%9%7%+2
8%11%12%9%+1
23%25%26%24%Draw
53%58%52%54%-1
61%60%55%60%-2
67%61%61%65%-3
72%63%61%69%-4

Group E






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Spain0000029%54%83%54%27%15%8%
Germany0000037%32%69%37%16%8%3.0%
Japan0000020%9%29%10%2.8%< 1%< 1%
Costa Rica0000014%5%19%5%1.2%< 1%< 1%

Conditions for Spain
Spain - Costa Rica
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
93%93%91%89%73%49%43%38%37%Ger - Jap
94%94%92%90%74%49%42%37%36%84%Home
91%91%91%89%73%48%43%41%36%82%Draw
92%92%90%87%71%49%43%39%38%82%Away

Conditions for Germany
Spain - Costa Rica
HomeDrawAway
70%68%66%Ger - Jap
92%88%87%91%+4
91%87%86%90%+3
89%86%83%88%+2
85%84%79%85%+1
62%61%58%62%Draw
32%31%34%32%-1
26%28%29%27%-2
21%27%25%22%-3
18%21%21%19%-4

Conditions for Japan
Spain - Costa Rica
HomeDrawAway
29%32%31%Ger - Jap
7%12%11%9%+4
8%13%13%9%+3
10%14%15%11%+2
13%16%18%14%+1
34%36%36%35%Draw
66%69%62%66%-1
73%72%67%72%-2
78%73%73%77%-3
80%76%76%79%-4

Conditions for Costa Rica
Spain - Costa Rica
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
8%9%10%13%27%55%61%66%69%Ger - Jap
7%8%9%12%25%53%60%67%69%17%Home
12%12%13%15%29%59%62%65%69%21%Draw
9%10%12%15%29%54%61%65%70%20%Away

Group F






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Belgium0000027%55%83%49%26%15%7%
Croatia0000036%29%65%30%12%5%1.8%
Canada0000019%9%28%8%1.9%< 1%< 1%
Morocco0000017%7%25%7%1.4%< 1%< 1%

Conditions for Belgium
Belgium - Canada
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
95%94%93%91%75%50%45%40%38%Mor - Cro
94%94%92%89%74%52%47%43%39%82%Home
94%93%93%91%76%51%47%45%46%83%Draw
95%95%94%91%75%50%44%37%34%83%Away

Conditions for Croatia
Belgium - Canada
HomeDrawAway
66%63%61%Mor - Cro
18%20%19%18%+4
19%22%21%20%+3
23%24%24%24%+2
30%27%28%29%+1
58%55%51%56%Draw
80%79%73%79%-1
85%81%77%83%-2
87%82%81%85%-3
88%82%82%86%-4

Conditions for Canada
Belgium - Canada
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
14%15%16%19%36%64%70%75%77%Mor - Cro
15%16%19%22%38%64%70%75%77%30%Home
18%19%19%22%40%69%73%74%78%31%Draw
11%12%14%18%34%63%69%75%77%26%Away

Conditions for Morocco
Belgium - Canada
HomeDrawAway
25%26%25%Mor - Cro
74%71%67%73%+4
72%68%64%70%+3
66%64%60%65%+2
59%60%54%59%+1
30%30%29%29%Draw
11%12%13%11%-1
8%10%10%9%-2
6%10%8%7%-3
5%10%8%7%-4

Group G






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Brazil0000020%72%92%71%51%34%24%
Switzerland0000040%16%56%27%12%6%1.9%
Serbia0000034%12%46%20%8%3.5%1.0%
Cameroon000005%< 1%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Conditions for Brazil
Brazil - Serbia
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
99.2%99.0%98.6%97.7%88%69%66%62%58%Swi - Cam
99.2%99.0%98.5%97.4%87%67%63%58%53%92%Home
99.2%99.1%99.0%98.6%91%74%73%71%67%94%Draw
99%98.9%98.7%97.9%91%79%76%74%73%94%Away

Conditions for Switzerland
Brazil - Serbia
+4+3+2+1DrawAway
62%61%59%57%51%45%Swi - Cam
75%74%73%72%62%61%70%+4
74%73%71%68%62%57%67%+3
71%69%67%64%61%52%64%+2
68%65%63%60%59%48%61%+1
49%48%47%47%35%30%43%Draw
27%26%22%21%13%14%20%-1
22%20%18%17%11%12%17%-2
21%17%15%13%9%10%14%-3
14%13%12%12%11%11%12%-4

Conditions for Serbia
Brazil - Serbia
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
31%34%36%39%55%81%85%89%89%Swi - Cam
25%27%28%31%50%74%81%86%86%39%+4
26%27%30%34%50%76%82%86%89%40%+3
28%31%34%37%51%79%84%89%88%43%+2
30%33%37%40%52%81%86%88%88%45%+1
41%42%43%45%66%89%91%93%93%54%Draw
42%46%50%54%68%87%90%92%91%58%Away

Conditions for Cameroon
Brazil - Serbia
HomeDrawAway
6%5%4.4%Swi - Cam
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%+4
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%+3
1.2%1.1%1.2%1.2%+2
2.1%1.5%1.8%1.9%+1
11%8%7%10%Draw
29%27%19%27%-1
34%30%22%31%-2
39%32%26%36%-3
44%34%30%40%-4

Group H






Probabilities
CountryPldGFGAGDPts2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Portugal0000031%53%84%42%23%12%5%
Uruguay0000039%35%74%30%14%6%2.3%
South Korea0000025%11%36%8%2.4%< 1%< 1%
Ghana000004.6%1.0%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Conditions for Portugal
Uruguay - South Korea
HomeDrawAway
86%83%82%Por - Gha
92%89%90%91%+4
91%87%88%89%+3
89%87%85%88%+2
87%86%82%85%+1
74%70%67%71%Draw
51%44%46%48%-1
45%41%41%43%-2
39%36%37%38%-3
33%-39%34%-4

Conditions for Uruguay
Uruguay - South Korea
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
96.3%95.6%94%92%69%35%30%25%23%Por - Gha
96.7%95.9%94%92%68%34%28%23%21%74%Home
95%95%94%93%71%38%36%34%34%76%Draw
94%94%92%90%71%43%40%36%31%76%Away

Conditions for South Korea
Uruguay - South Korea
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
11%13%15%18%42%77%82%87%89%Por - Gha
10%11%13%16%41%76%82%87%89%35%Home
20%21%21%23%47%83%85%86%89%41%Draw
20%23%25%29%51%80%83%87%86%44%Away

Conditions for Ghana
Uruguay - South Korea
HomeDrawAway
5%7%6%Por - Gha
1.9%3%2.4%2.4%+4
2.1%3.6%2.8%2.6%+3
2.6%3.8%3.5%3.1%+2
3.6%5%5%4.2%+1
11%12%12%12%Draw
32%34%30%32%-1
37%37%36%37%-2
43%41%39%41%-3
52%-51%49%-4


Below are the matches that have the greatest impact on who will win the world cup.


Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Brazil vs SerbiaHome WinDrawAway Win
Brazil26%23%18%
Serbia< 1%1.2%1.9%
mutual information: 4.2 mBit

France vs AustraliaHome WinDrawAway Win
France8%6%3.1%
mutual information: 3.4 mBit

Germany vs JapanHome WinDrawAway Win
Germany3.8%2.8%1.3%
mutual information: 3.2 mBit

Uruguay vs South KoreaHome WinDrawAway Win
Uruguay2.9%2.0%< 1%
mutual information: 2.9 mBit

Belgium vs CanadaHome WinDrawAway Win
Belgium8%6%3.6%

mutual information: 2.8 mBit


Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Netherlands (67%)
Ecuador (18%)



Netherlands (49%)
England (12%)
Ecuador (9%)

England (27%)
Iran (26%)
United States (24%)
Wales (23%)







Argentina (43%)
Netherlands (23%)
France (8%)

Argentina (80%)
Mexico (9%)







Argentina (59%)
Denmark (15%)
France (14%)



Denmark (38%)
France (34%)
Australia (16%)











Brazil (26%)
Argentina (26%)
Netherlands (11%)
Spain (9%)

Spain (54%)
Germany (32%)









Spain (36%)
Germany (18%)
Croatia (15%)
Belgium (15%)





Croatia (36%)
Belgium (27%)
Canada (19%)
Morocco (17%)











Brazil (40%)
Spain (17%)
Germany (7%)
Belgium (7%)



Brazil (72%)
Switzerland (16%)









Brazil (56%)
Uruguay (13%)
Portugal (12%)





Uruguay (39%)
Portugal (31%)
South Korea (25%)















Brazil (24%)
Argentina (21%)
Netherlands (9%)
Spain (8%)
England (44%)
Iran (21%)
United States (18%)









England (26%)
Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (16%)
Qatar (11%)





Ecuador (36%)
Qatar (26%)
Netherlands (22%)
Senegal (16%)











France (22%)
Denmark (16%)
England (12%)
Netherlands (10%)
Argentina (8%)



France (50%)
Denmark (40%)









France (34%)
Denmark (26%)
Mexico (12%)
Poland (12%)





Mexico (37%)
Poland (36%)
Argentina (15%)













France (12%)
Belgium (11%)
Portugal (9%)
Brazil (8%)
Denmark (8%)

Belgium (55%)
Croatia (29%)
Canada (9%)







Belgium (34%)
Germany (19%)
Spain (17%)
Croatia (14%)



Germany (37%)
Spain (29%)
Japan (20%)









Belgium (19%)
Portugal (16%)
Brazil (11%)
Spain (10%)
Germany (9%)

Portugal (53%)
Uruguay (35%)





Portugal (30%)
Switzerland (19%)
Uruguay (17%)
Brazil (15%)

Switzerland (40%)
Serbia (34%)
Brazil (20%)

 

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