Premier League: World Cup break

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.9 more than expected
Leicester: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
West Ham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.55%
Fifth team	99.99%	99.95%	5%
FA cup winners	99.91%	99.91%	48%
League cup winners	>99.99%	70%	58%
Sixth team	91%	65%	4.3%
Seventh team	60%	15%	3.3%
Eighth team	18%	7%	1.6%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
32	Man City	83.2	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.82%	99.35%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	99.52%
37	Arsenal	79.9	+39	< 1%	99.95%	99.74%	99.08%	97.3%	31%	< 1%	1.8%	97.8%
22	Liverpool	70.7	+37	< 1%	98.0%	94%	86%	72%	2.6%	3.8%	17%	76%
29	Tottenham	66.6	+20	< 1%	92%	80%	62%	42%	< 1%	10%	33%	44%
26	Man United	65.8	+11	< 1%	88%	74%	55%	35%	< 1%	13%	32%	40%
30	Newcastle	65.1	+23	< 1%	88%	73%	53%	33%	< 1%	15%	35%	33%
21	Chelsea	62.5	+14	< 1%	77%	54%	34%	18%	< 1%	15%	32%	22%
21	Brighton	56.2	+7	< 1%	33%	17%	8%	3.3%	< 1%	18%	15%	3.3%
19	Crystal Palace	51.6	-4	< 1%	12%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	7%	< 1%
17	Leicester	48.1	-2	2.5%	4.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	4.2%	< 1%
19	Brentford	46.4	-10	4.5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.4%	< 1%
18	Aston Villa	46.1	-13	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	2.5%	< 1%
14	West Ham	45.2	-6	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	< 1%
19	Fulham	43.5	-16	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
15	Leeds	42.5	-14	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
14	Everton	40.5	-16	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
12	Southampton	37.3	-25	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	1.1%	< 1%
16	Bournemouth	37.3	-33	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Wolves	34.5	-29	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%
13	Forest	33.2	-40	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	87%	48%	13%	1.3%	12%	3.4%	1.3%
Arsenal	49%	9%	< 1%		2.9%
Liverpool	39%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	11%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Man United	23%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	16%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	13%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	13%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.1%	< 1%			< 1%
Leicester	10%	< 1%
Brentford	1.9%
Aston Villa	2.1%
West Ham	22%	< 1%
Fulham	1.3%
Leeds	1.7%
Everton	1.7%
Southampton	3.8%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Wolves	4.4%	< 1%
Forest	1.3%	< 1%