Group C - Match Day 1

Argentina vs Mexico is now the most important match the coming days. Argentina are out if they lose. Saudi clinch a spot in the knockout stage if they beat Poland.

Group C

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Saudi Arabia	1	2	1	1	3	29%	25%	55%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Poland	1	0	0	0	1	23%	14%	37%	13%	5.0%	1.4%	< 1%
Mexico	1	0	0	0	1	23%	14%	37%	14%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
Argentina	1	1	2	-1	0	24%	47%	72%	53%	39%	24%	16%

Conditions for Saudi Arabia

Argentina - Mexico
Home	Draw	Away
55%	53%	58%	Sau - Pol
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
66%	54%	93%	67%	0-0
70%	54%	93%	70%	1-1
73%	56%	94%	73%	2-2
74%	57%	94%	73%	3-3
39%	42%	36%	39%	-1
29%	32%	26%	29%	-2
24%	28%	22%	25%	-3
24%	28%	21%	24%	-4

Conditions for Poland

Argentina - Mexico
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
42%	38%	34%	30%	31%	50%	Sau - Pol
10%	8%	8%	6%	5%	1.2%	7%	Home
11%	11%	11%	11%	15%	10%	11%	Draw
53%	45%	36%	30%	29%	73%	42%	-1
70%	63%	55%	47%	54%	87%	60%	-2
79%	76%	69%	62%	61%	95%	72%	-3
82%	80%	77%	71%	76%	97%	79%	-4

Conditions for Mexico

Argentina - Mexico
+4	+3	+2	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
14%	19%	26%	33%	35%	39%	59%	91%	93%	96%	95%	Sau - Pol
1.1%	2.3%	4.6%	10%	11%	11%	61%	98.5%	99.5%	99%	100%	24%	Home
16%	34%	34%	35%	57%	57%	60%	97%	98%	99%	-	45%	0-0
18%	24%	34%	34%	34%	58%	60%	96%	98%	97%	96%	42%	1-1
16%	18%	34%	34%	34%	35%	59%	96%	98%	99%	-	40%	2-2
16%	16%	36%	34%	33%	35%	56%	94%	97%	100%	-	38%	3-3
23%	31%	41%	50%	52%	52%	57%	89%	93%	95%	94%	46%	-1
15%	22%	31%	42%	44%	47%	57%	85%	90%	94%	96%	40%	-2
11%	14%	22%	32%	34%	38%	57%	82%	85%	91%	89%	34%	-3
9%	10%	15%	23%	24%	26%	57%	82%	81%	85%	-	29%	-4

Conditions for Argentina

Argentina - Mexico
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
87%	87%	86%	82%	57%	< 1%	Sau - Pol
89%	89%	88%	83%	34%	< 1%	69%	Home
89%	89%	89%	89%	70%	< 1%	76%	Draw
86%	85%	85%	80%	60%	< 1%	71%	Away

 

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	19%	13%	< 1%

mutual information: 36.4 mBit

Brazil vs Serbia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brazil	27%	24%	18%
Serbia	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%

mutual information: 5.4 mBit

Germany vs Japan	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	3.9%	2.8%	1.3%

mutual information: 3.5 mBit

France vs Australia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
France	8%	6%	3.8%

mutual information: 3 mBit

Belgium vs Canada	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	6%	3.7%

mutual information: 3 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (71%) Ecuador (27%)
		Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (14%) United States (9%)
United States (29%) Wales (28%) Iran (24%) England (18%)
				Netherlands (30%) Argentina (26%) Denmark (12%) France (8%)
Argentina (47%) Saudi Arabia (25%) Mexico (14%)
		Argentina (36%) Denmark (22%) France (14%) Saudi Arabia (6%)
Denmark (40%) France (25%) Tunisia (18%) Australia (17%)
						Brazil (28%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (15%) Spain (10%)
Spain (54%) Germany (32%)
		Spain (36%) Germany (18%) Croatia (15%) Belgium (15%)
Croatia (36%) Belgium (27%) Canada (19%) Morocco (18%)
				Brazil (40%) Spain (17%) Germany (7%) Belgium (7%)
Brazil (72%) Switzerland (16%)
		Brazil (56%) Uruguay (13%) Portugal (12%)
Uruguay (39%) Portugal (31%) South Korea (25%)
								Brazil (25%) Argentina (16%) Netherlands (11%) Spain (8%)
England (73%) United States (12%)
		England (41%) Ecuador (25%) Netherlands (16%)
Ecuador (56%) Netherlands (24%) Senegal (12%)
				France (25%) England (19%) Argentina (13%) Denmark (11%)
France (58%) Denmark (28%)
		France (39%) Denmark (18%) Argentina (17%) Mexico (8%)
Saudi Arabia (29%) Argentina (24%) Mexico (23%) Poland (23%)
						France (13%) Belgium (11%) Portugal (9%) Argentina (9%) Brazil (8%)
Belgium (55%) Croatia (29%) Canada (9%)
		Belgium (34%) Germany (19%) Spain (17%) Croatia (14%)
Germany (37%) Spain (29%) Japan (20%)
				Belgium (19%) Portugal (16%) Brazil (11%) Spain (10%) Germany (9%)
Portugal (53%) Uruguay (35%)
		Portugal (30%) Switzerland (19%) Uruguay (17%) Brazil (15%)
Switzerland (40%) Serbia (34%) Brazil (20%)