Group E - Match Day 1

 

Group E

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Spain	1	7	0	7	3	14%	79%	93%	63%	31%	17%	9%
Japan	1	2	1	1	3	50%	18%	67%	24%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
Germany	1	1	2	-1	0	28%	3.1%	31%	17%	8%	3.9%	1.5%
Costa Rica	1	0	7	-7	0	8%	< 1%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Conditions for Spain

Spain - Germany
Home	Draw	Away
100%	99.1%	77%	Cos - Jap
100%	97.3%	84%	95%	Home
100%	99.9%	72%	92%	Draw
100%	99.93%	75%	93%	Away

Conditions for Japan

Spain - Germany
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
85%	83%	81%	79%	66%	48%	44%	43%	42%	Cos - Jap
28%	27%	27%	27%	15%	15%	15%	18%	14%	21%	+4
40%	34%	31%	31%	19%	16%	16%	16%	14%	25%	+3
49%	40%	35%	32%	20%	16%	16%	16%	16%	26%	+2
58%	50%	42%	35%	22%	18%	16%	16%	15%	30%	+1
99.9%	99.8%	99.8%	99.8%	62%	48%	46%	45%	45%	76%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	62%	58%	59%	59%	89%	-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	71%	63%	60%	58%	90%	-2
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	80%	71%	62%	61%	93%	-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	89%	79%	70%	68%	95%	-4

Conditions for Germany

Spain - Germany
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
6%	8%	11%	12%	25%	68%	72%	73%	75%	Cos - Jap
26%	39%	41%	40%	53%	83%	83%	85%	84%	55%	+4
30%	38%	40%	41%	53%	83%	84%	85%	83%	55%	+3
22%	31%	38%	41%	53%	83%	83%	82%	83%	54%	+2
15%	22%	31%	38%	50%	80%	83%	82%	83%	50%	+1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	76%	79%	79%	80%	31%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	63%	66%	66%	67%	19%	-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	54%	62%	65%	69%	17%	-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	45%	54%	62%	63%	14%	-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	36%	45%	55%	60%	12%	-4

Conditions for Costa Rica

Spain - Germany
Home	Draw	Away
9%	10%	6%	Cos - Jap
28%	30%	17%	25%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

 

 

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	19%	12%	< 1%

mutual information: 35.7 mBit

Spain vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	1.2%	3.2%
Spain	10%	10%	8%

mutual information: 7.1 mBit

France vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	2.8%	3.7%	6%
France	9%	9%	7%

mutual information: 5.1 mBit

Brazil vs Serbia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brazil	26%	23%	18%
Serbia	< 1%	1.3%	2.1%
Spain	9%	10%	11%

mutual information: 4.9 mBit

Uruguay vs South Korea	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	3.0%	2.2%	< 1%

mutual information: 3.2 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (71%) Ecuador (27%)
		Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (14%) United States (9%)
United States (29%) Wales (28%) Iran (24%) England (18%)
				Netherlands (30%) Argentina (26%) Denmark (13%) France (8%)
Argentina (47%) Saudi Arabia (25%) Mexico (14%)
		Argentina (36%) Denmark (24%) France (14%) Saudi Arabia (6%)
Denmark (45%) France (24%) Tunisia (19%)
						Brazil (27%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (14%) Spain (14%)
Spain (79%) Japan (18%)
		Spain (54%) Croatia (15%) Belgium (12%)
Croatia (36%) Belgium (22%) Canada (21%) Morocco (21%)
				Brazil (40%) Spain (26%) Portugal (7%) Uruguay (6%)
Brazil (72%) Switzerland (16%)
		Brazil (56%) Uruguay (13%) Portugal (12%)
Uruguay (39%) Portugal (31%) South Korea (25%)
								Brazil (25%) Argentina (16%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%)
England (73%) United States (12%)
		England (41%) Ecuador (25%) Netherlands (16%)
Ecuador (56%) Netherlands (24%) Senegal (12%)
				France (29%) England (18%) Argentina (13%) Denmark (9%)
France (69%) Denmark (25%)
		France (47%) Argentina (17%) Denmark (16%)
Saudi Arabia (29%) Argentina (24%) Mexico (23%) Poland (23%)
						France (15%) Belgium (13%) Portugal (9%) Argentina (9%) Brazil (8%)
Belgium (62%) Croatia (20%) Canada (11%)
		Belgium (41%) Japan (16%) Germany (14%) Croatia (11%)
Japan (50%) Germany (28%) Spain (14%)
				Belgium (23%) Portugal (17%) Brazil (11%) Switzerland (9%) Uruguay (8%)
Portugal (53%) Uruguay (35%)
		Portugal (30%) Switzerland (19%) Uruguay (17%) Brazil (15%)
Switzerland (40%) Serbia (34%) Brazil (20%)