Euro: Albania and Poland in deciding match

Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they win against Serbia and Bulgaria win against Montenegro. Ukraine clinch a place in the playoff if Serbia win against Hungary and Finland win against Denmark.
 

Group E is a tight race between Czechia, Poland and Albania. The match between Albania and Poland tonight is therefore crucial for both teams. In Group H, we have a group final between Finland and Denmark where the winner can almost their tickets to Euro 24.

Group E

Albania vs Poland (26.8%)	Home Win (22%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (56%)
Albania	83%	47%	28%
Poland	59%	82%	96.5%

Group H

Finland vs Denmark (5.5%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Finland	97.3%	89%	79%
Denmark	92%	95.8%	99.2%
Slovenia	30%	33%	38%

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	99.99%	88%	56%	8	15	16.4	18	20	12.4
Poland	>99.99%	76%	33%	6	13	15	16	18	5.8
Albania	98.8%	36%	11%	7	11	13.2	14	19	4.1
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	4	5.9	7	15	-12
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4	4	5.9	7	16	-10.4

 

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	93%	66%	12	22	22.7	25	25	19.8
Finland	>99.99%	79%	29%	12	20	21.5	23	27	14.1
Slovenia	72%	27%	5%	10	17	18.6	20	25	7
Kazakhstan	100%	1.0%	< 1%	9	13	14.1	15	24	-0.6
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	8	9.9	12	18	-1.3
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-39

 

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	95.3%	4.7%	4.7%
D	Croatia	97.4%	2.6%	2.6%
A	Spain	99.01%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Italy	66%	34%	34%
H	Denmark	93%	7%	7%
J	Portugal	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Belgium	99.33%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Hungary	98.9%	1.1%	1.0%
I	Switzerland	99.01%	< 1%	< 1%
	Germany
E	Poland	76%	24%	23%
B	France	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Austria	80%	20%	17%
E	Czechia	88%	12%	11%
C	England	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Wales	29%	71%	51%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	47%	53%	53%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	12%	88%	88%
G	Serbia	97.0%	3.0%	1.6%
A	Scotland	99.15%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Finland	79%	21%	13%
C	Ukraine	34%	66%	37%
E	Albania	36%	62%	25%
A	Norway	1.5%	86%	20%
H	Slovenia	27%	45%	8%
B	Ireland	< 1%	20%	3.0%
J	Iceland	1.0%	2.3%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	3.8%	< 1%
I	Romania	51%	< 1%
F	Sweden	20%
D	Armenia	4.0%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia	< 1%	99.70%	99.70%
B	Greece	3.8%	96.2%	96.2%
D	Turkey	70%	30%	1.2%
H	Kazakhstan	1.0%	99.0%	2.8%
J	Luxembourg	29%	51%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	23%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	2.1%	1.0%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	< 1%
J	Slovakia	58%
H	Northern Ireland	< 1%
A	Cyprus	< 1%
I	Belarus	< 1%
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia	< 1%	95.7%
D	Latvia	< 1%	78%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta	< 1%
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein