Euro: Group D and Group J

Matches in Group D are most interesting tonight. Croatia can almost clinch qualification with a win against Armenia. Turkey and Wales are fighting over the other place and the match between Latvia and Wales is important for this race.

Group D

Armenia vs Croatia (3.2%)	Home Win (9%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (76%)
Armenia	20%	6%	1.7%
Croatia	95.5%	97.9%	99.4%

Group D

Latvia vs Wales (3.1%)	Home Win (10%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (74%)
Turkey	91%	86%	72%
Wales	37%	43%	56%

Group J

Iceland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (2.5%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	23%	26%	39%
Slovakia	62%	60%	51%
Iceland	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	33%	33%	27%

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	97.5%	90%	7	17	18.6	20	22	15.9
Turkey	100%	69%	6%	10	13	13.8	15	19	1.6
Wales	99.57%	29%	3.3%	4	10	11.8	14	16	0.7
Armenia	4.0%	4.0%	< 1%	7	8	9.7	11	19	-3.9
Latvia	65%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	2.4	4	12	-14.4

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	>99.99%	99.88%	17	27	28.5	30	30	30
Slovakia	58%	58%	< 1%	10	16	17.3	19	25	4
Luxembourg	79%	29%	< 1%	10	14	15.6	17	25	-3.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	12%	< 1%	6	12	14	16	21	-0.9
Iceland	3.8%	1.0%	< 1%	3	9	10.6	12	18	1.4
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.9	1	12	-31.2